Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Cattledog]

The FTC can do a lot. They are the ones that Solarworld went to and started the whole solar trade war.

If the FTC intervenes that means that Texas would be opened up too, right?

This is huge news, but the question is, will the street see it as that?

I'd look for sales to double in states where there are some sort of restrictions in place. That would lead to at least a couple thousand more per year in the US. More mainstream buyers see lack of a test drive and no price discussion as an impediment to purchase. I spoke to one who said just that and bought a Maserati (ugh).

 

[Cwin]

With a moderate and somewhat steady climb in TSLA last week, I suspect that Monday morning will see a positive opening, provided there's nothing major happening with the markets. I sense a good week for the "Monday morning effect" as investors have had the weekend to ponder getting into Tesla for its climb back up.

I'm skeptical about a good week. There is some justified fear about the market overall with last weeks events.

I'm still holding onto my June 06 200 calls.

 

[uselesslogin]

Something to consider is the rapid growth of Model X reservations as a surrogate for Model S demand. Since Dec 31, 2013, the reservation rate per day in the US has gone up 200% and since 30 April it has gone up about 50% from 22/day to 30.2/day. If the number of people willing to put. $5000 deposit down and wait a year for a "possible" car has increased 50%, is it possible that the number of people willing to reserve and purchase and actual, highly rated, production car may have increased in a similar manner???

Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online, for free.

In my mind I agree and fully expect the Model S orders are up in a similar manner, if not more so. I don't think that can fully explain the delivery delay, so you have to add in more China deliveries and the fact the line will shut down for 2 weeks. It means without a doubt that 3/5 of Q3 production is sold out and Q3 hasn't even started.

One edit to be clear a 50% order uptick can't even come close to explaining the move from a June delivery estimate to September in a matter of days. That must be due to other factors. So I think there has been an uptick of orders based on anecdotal forum posts and Model X data, but actually the delivery estimate move isn't really an indicator of this.

 

[Chickenlittle]

In my mind I agree and fully expect the Model S orders are up in a similar manner, if not more so. I don't think that can fully explain the delivery delay, so you have to add in more China deliveries and the fact the line will shut down for 2 weeks. It means without a doubt that 3/5 of Q3 production is sold out and Q3 hasn't even started.

One edit to be clear a 50% order uptick can't even come close to explaining the move from a June delivery estimate to September in a matter of days. That must be due to other factors. So I think there has been an uptick of orders based on anecdotal forum posts and Model X data, but actually the delivery estimate move isn't really an indicator of this.

really remarkable in light of second line going in july as well. suspect part of jump maybe that they delayed in updating the delivery time as well so it might not have been so sudden

 

[uselesslogin]

really remarkable in light of second line going in july as well. suspect part of jump maybe that they delayed in updating the delivery time as well so it might not have been so sudden

On the delivery tracker there is someone who confirmed May 9th and got an estimated delivery date of June 29th. So I don't think it had anything to do with a delay in the update of delivery time. In one weeks time the delivery window for US orders moved by 3 months. Still, that can't be explained by order numbers alone. I'm sure they are allocating considerably more production for international deliveries in the first 2 months of the quarter in addition to shutting the line down for 2 weeks. Also the performance cars still have priority delivery in late August.

 

[chickensevil]

I really think RHD markets have a lot to do with this. We are expecting AU to post their prices any day now, and one is apparently already in the country getting tested and such to pass the regulations. UK is opening up very soon with Elon making an appearance there. That is two countries at least with people even still get Sig deliveries to these countries. So there are people in those places that have been waiting for a while.

 

[Bgarret]

I really think RHD markets have a lot to do with this. We are expecting AU to post their prices any day now, and one is apparently already in the country getting tested and such to pass the regulations. UK is opening up very soon with Elon making an appearance there. That is two countries at least with people even still get Sig deliveries to these countries. So there are people in those places that have been waiting for a while.

If you put the right-hand drive countries together - Japan, Great Britain, Australia, Hong Kong, etc - you have essentially another market nearly the size of the US or Europe or China. This would be a nice time to no longer be production constrained....oh, yeah, that is this July.

 

[justdoit]

MS reiterated their $320 price target on TSLA

Why Tesla Motors (TSLA) Stock Is Higher Today - TheStreet

 

[Lump]

Tesla Model S appears to be sold out through Q3, says Dougherty
Dougherty said Tesla's Model S appears to be sold out thru Q3 driven by a surge in demand based on word of mouth recommendations and organic growth.
Stock Market & Financial Investment News: Educated Investors Get Live Stock Market News Feeds & Alerts at The Fly On the Wall

 

[stainlesssteel]

MS reiterated their $320 price target on TSLA

Why Tesla Motors (TSLA) Stock Is Higher Today - TheStreet

TheStreet.com article is wrong; Morgan Stanley reiterated last Friday 16May2014, not today:

May-16-14

(Tesla Motors Inc.: 3 Key Thoughts) Following our review of Tesla’s 10Q, we reiterate our OW rating and $320 target. Given the broader s...

 

[FredTMC]

Near HOD now at $198.50.

$199... And NAZ now near pos territory

 

[wycolo]

Making money the old fashioned way - by buying and selling shares: Since 15 April: $2457- gain per 100 share block.

20 May 2014 sold 100 shares @197.70 = gain $1350-
08 May 2014 buy 100 shares @184.06

29 April 2014 sold 100 shares @204.91 = gain $1107-
15 April 2014 buy 100 shares @193.70

* remember to confirm (within 2 days) sale is NOT FIFO but is 'the top 100 shares' lot used for trading.

This is a once in a lifetime growth stock unfolding here before our eyes.

 

[chickensevil]

Quick little cross post, since the wait times were discussed here earlier:

Website wait times for delivery change - Page 4

The question I sent to Tesla Investor Relations:
"Can you tell me, as a holder of many shares of TSLA, why the estimated delivery dates reported on the Tesla website move back considerably to September?
Is it increased demand? China orders? Or?"

I.R. Reply: Congratulations! You are the first to notice. We've been trying to tell investors that demand is growing even in our most mature markets, so wait times are extending. That's the answer.

(Obviously I was not the first to notice the change on website.)

So that's that. Demand is growing. I still think RHD opening up, plus the 2 week shutdown is impacting it... but demand is definitely up!

 

[maoing]

China demand will futher growing as Tesla just offered 60kwh model to China market.

 

[Cwin]

So I just sold my June 6 200 calls, grabbing June 13 177.5 puts.

I think today's market drop isn't over with and will continue into tomorrow and may bring Tesla down with it. If it seems like just a weak sell off then I'll sell em at -1% which we will likely hit even if its an alright day tomorrow.

 

[c041v]

So I just sold my June 6 200 calls, grabbing June 13 177.5 puts.

I think today's market drop isn't over with and will continue into tomorrow and may bring Tesla down with it. If it seems like just a weak sell off then I'll sell em at -1% which we will likely hit even if its an alright day tomorrow.

Did you catch the peak at $198.XX? or just offload them before the end of trading?

- - - Updated - - -

 

[Cwin]

Did you catch the peak at $198.XX? or just offload them before the end of trading?

- - - Updated - - -

End of the day, kicking myself in the butt for missing the HOD.

So, here is a summary of interest.

05/20/14	Bought to Open		TSLA PutTsla Jun 13 2014 177.50 Put	TSLA Jun 13 2014 177.50 Put	$2.32
05/20/14	Sold to Close		TSLA CallTsla Jun 06 2014 200.00 Call	TSLA Jun 06 2014 200.00 Call	$4.85
05/15/14	Bought to Open		TSLA CallTsla Jun 06 2014 200.00 Call	TSLA Jun 06 2014 200.00 Call	$3.90

 

[Papafox]

I see a bullish trend in TSLA investors these past two weeks and I'm rather curious why I don't see a more bullish sentiment expressed on this forum. The DOW and NASDAQ both lost lots of points today, but TSLA resisted the fall pretty well. As soon as the market stabilizes again, TSLA will resume its climb. I think many of us felt disheartened when TSLA dropped from above 255 to below 180, but most of us realize the Post-Q1 ER fall was pretty much an unwarranted response to the general climate towards high-flying stocks. Now institutions and other entities are taking a closer look and seeing that Tesla's development looks to be on track, demand is strong, and for these reasons we will see higher share prices provided the broader markets don't do something dramatic.

 

[uselesslogin]

I see a bullish trend in TSLA investors these past two weeks and I'm rather curious why I don't see a more bullish sentiment expressed on this forum. The DOW and NASDAQ both lost lots of points today, but TSLA resisted the fall pretty well. As soon as the market stabilizes again, TSLA will resume its climb. I think many of us felt disheartened when TSLA dropped from above 255 to below 180, but most of us realize the Post-Q1 ER fall was pretty much an unwarranted response to the general climate towards high-flying stocks. Now institutions and other entities are taking a closer look and seeing that Tesla's development looks to be on track, demand is strong, and for these reasons we will see higher share prices provided the broader markets don't do something dramatic.

I know I am super bullish right now but I'm not sure what is left to talk about. Demand looks impressive. The ramp is finally going to happen. All kinds of crazy negative articles have seemingly pushed down expectations for TSLA. Also, the stock held up pretty well after the "bad" earnings report. But I think a lot of people on this forum already know what makes Tesla such a great company and the stock isn't moving as fast as it used to so there isn't as much to talk about.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I see a bullish trend in TSLA investors these past two weeks and I'm rather curious why I don't see a more bullish sentiment expressed on this forum. The DOW and NASDAQ both lost lots of points today, but TSLA resisted the fall pretty well. As soon as the market stabilizes again, TSLA will resume its climb. I think many of us felt disheartened when TSLA dropped from above 255 to below 180, but most of us realize the Post-Q1 ER fall was pretty much an unwarranted response to the general climate towards high-flying stocks. Now institutions and other entities are taking a closer look and seeing that Tesla's development looks to be on track, demand is strong, and for these reasons we will see higher share prices provided the broader markets don't do something dramatic.

I am bullish too but last weeks moves lower than average volumes