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California is in the midst of a drought, which is historic in magnitude. Most reasonable minds attribute the drought to global warming and climate change. The legislature in California has had the good sense to pass a wide range of laws to change the utility and transportation industries. Our state is leading the nation in renewable energy, stationary storage, and electric vehicle infrastructure.
Do not be surprised when Governor Brown and California come from behind and LEAD on the Tesla Gigafactory.
From California Senate Bill SB-1309
This bill would state the intent of the Legislature to enact legislation to expedite groundbreaking and construction in California of a large-scale battery factory to manufacture batteries for both electric-vehicle and stationary uses. This bill would declare that it is to take effect immediately as an urgency statute.
It is the intent of the Legislature to enact legislation, including, but not limited to, financial incentives and changes to regulatory and environmental processes, to expedite groundbreaking and construction in California of a large-scale battery factory to manufacture batteries for both electric-vehicle and stationary uses thus increasing the production of electric vehicles and renewable energy consistent with California’s efforts to fight climate change as well as creating economic opportunity and thousands of jobs in California.
Do not be surprised when Governor Brown and California come from behind and LEAD on the Tesla Gigafactory.
From California Senate Bill SB-1309
This bill would state the intent of the Legislature to enact legislation to expedite groundbreaking and construction in California of a large-scale battery factory to manufacture batteries for both electric-vehicle and stationary uses. This bill would declare that it is to take effect immediately as an urgency statute.
It is the intent of the Legislature to enact legislation, including, but not limited to, financial incentives and changes to regulatory and environmental processes, to expedite groundbreaking and construction in California of a large-scale battery factory to manufacture batteries for both electric-vehicle and stationary uses thus increasing the production of electric vehicles and renewable energy consistent with California’s efforts to fight climate change as well as creating economic opportunity and thousands of jobs in California.
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I hope you are correct but I will be very surprised.:wink: I have no doubt you will get a GF and maybe for PR reasons the first one with 'official' ground breaking (but I doubt that). Even if it is the first official ground breaking the first operational one will be in Nevada or Texas.
Gerardf
Active Member
Aren't uncertainties exactly the reason Tesla plans to announce (and break ground) on multiple locations. This way they have a plan-B ( and -C) in case of such delays or blocking problems, while not waiting for all formal, processes and environmental details to be completed first.
Assuming States give them a good deal on acquiring the site to lure Tesla in and win a GF for their State, it would not even be a loss for Tesla to sell the ground without losses in case of such problems. More likely Tesla put a condition in the contract that allows them to cancel any site purchase contract.
I assume we will see some official GF news very soon.
Assuming States give them a good deal on acquiring the site to lure Tesla in and win a GF for their State, it would not even be a loss for Tesla to sell the ground without losses in case of such problems. More likely Tesla put a condition in the contract that allows them to cancel any site purchase contract.
I assume we will see some official GF news very soon.
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Actually, California ranks 25th in terms of percentage of renewable energy and 2nd in terms of absolute amounts (behind Washington)according to this website. Good action on the part of the state legislature though. California will have a Gigafactory for sure. First? Perhaps.
Renewable Energy Production By State | Department of Energy
Renewable Energy Production By State | Department of Energy
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/09/china-economy-tax-idUSB9N0P602520140709
couldnt find any info if that applies only to china build EVs
couldnt find any info if that applies only to china build EVs
I ditched all my TSLA stock and options when the stock was at $210 a few months back. To me, there's just more money to be made elsewhere. I moved it into GTAT, MU and INVN.
My concerns as a TSLA investor were as follows:
1) What's the upside? Stock may hit $300 by end 2014 and possibly even $400 by end 2015. But that's long shot for gains. And that's still not what I could make on GTAT or MU.
2) Any sort of snafu on Gigafactory execution could result in a huge hit to the stock.
I believe in Tesla. And if I had the money, I'd be buying one tomorrow. But investing is about gains. And to me there was simply too much risk for the upside presented. Risk/reward on TSLA was poor compared to the other opportunities I have.
Will be nice to get back into TSLA in a year or two after the stock has more fundamentals behind it.
chickensevil
Active Member
I would direct you to DaveT's thread and specifically the pieces he is writing right now about the concepts of Tesla 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0. It may give you the reassurance you are looking for to see the stock go much higher than 300/400.
Articles/megaposts by DaveT
I would start with his post written on 6/27 and read it plus the other 5 newer ones. He still has not gotten into the Tesla 3.0 image fully, but it should help you gain perspective on where the company is heading (which will in turn give perspective on where the stock should follow)
Point is here, that waiting out for 2 years may not be a good option because the stock is very likely to continue to go up dramatically.
The question here is do you invest to make money or to show fanboy support.
I'll use the example of my very last TSLA position: two $250 Jan 2016 calls. Sold them for $8k or thereabouts. Now, if the stock were to hit $400 by Jan 2016, I'd make about $22 000. On the other hand, I could buy $20 Jan 2016 calls in GTAT for ~$5. $8000 gets me 16 calls. Let's conservatively assume that Matt Margolis is off by a significant factor on his price target of $81 by June 2015. I'll say the stock hits $40 by Jan 2016. I'd make $24 000 with those 16 calls. Now let's be wildly optimistic. Let's assume that Tesla hits $500 by Jan 2016. Those two TSLA calls would have yielded $42 000. And let's assume that Matt Margolis is right on GTAT. My 16 GTAT calls would yield a profit of $89 600.
There's risk on both sides of the ledger of this switch I made. To me there's a real risk that the Gigafactory will be delayed and the stock would take a hit. Holding leaps, that's not a great position to be in. There's very little upside risk that TSLA will somehow accelerate the Gigafactory and deliver Gen III by end 2016. There's also a huge risk that GTAT will tank when the iPhone launches without sapphire. But at this point, with enough leaks about the Apple's sapphire cover screen, the half billion dollar investment in GTAT, and three out of four prepayments made, I'm confident in my choice.
So while TSLA was a great investment for me till early this year, I simply see more money to be made elsewhere. I wish all of you longs luck. Good chance, I'll return to the fold once I've made some more money elsewhere. Long term, I see nothing but great things for Tesla. But I'd really like to support Tesla by actually buying a fully loaded X. To do that, TSLA isn't going to get me there. But GTAT might!
Yes. I agree. As I said many times in this forum. Chinese government is very serious for EV adoption. Right now, Model S has advantage of ZERO emission tax and ZERO purchase tax in China, also Shanghai municipal government gives FREE license plate incentive, Elon Musk gives fair pricing policy. So Model S/X is very competitive and sales will have a even brighter future in China market.
Keith, I understand what you are saying, things have changed.
In 2012 Tesla was basically very high risk/silly good potential reward
today I think it's basically mid-range risk/good return
For me the current risk/reward on Tesla makes a lot of sense, but if you're looking for returns like Tesla had last year, I can see why 2014 Tesla is off your list.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I only invest in sure shots and that's why I'm here. You can take your GTAT to their own GTAT club and express your views there, good luck finding one fanboy.
CA is middle of the road on many things, mostly because as the most populous state that tends to regress it towards the mean. Also I bet most of those 25 states are CARB states which have adopted California's environmental laws. CA is still a leader on green issues.
NigelM
Recovering Member
hockeythug
Active Member
"A Warning about Tesla" coming up on Closing Bell. Looks like someone is going to come on and say don't buy the stock because of the crashes over the weekend.
Keeping it very civil here is the best strategy for all.
By the way, I took advantage of the weekend's tempest to pick up a sizable addition to my TSLA holdings for the first time in several quarters; getting in at just under 216. I have not added to my GTAT, which is the fourth largest position in the portfolios I handle, but which, at +290% remains nicely the best performer for us over the past twelve months.
Good luck to all and keep doing your own research.
By the way, I took advantage of the weekend's tempest to pick up a sizable addition to my TSLA holdings for the first time in several quarters; getting in at just under 216. I have not added to my GTAT, which is the fourth largest position in the portfolios I handle, but which, at +290% remains nicely the best performer for us over the past twelve months.
Good luck to all and keep doing your own research.
You know almost all shorts think the car is awesome in secret, which really pisses me off. Spreading lies for a living to make money a stocks you short, that's not an honorable way of living.
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So in this article, which is dated today, it says they are producing 700 a week. Did we know that already on here? I don't keep up with the 'numbers' thread.
What Is It Like to Work at Tesla Motors?
Yesterday was clearly a general market sell off, today is clearly the bounce along with positive reaction to Yellen. And by clearly I mean my pure conjecturing.
Also, for anyone interested, your advice/input is greatly appreciated:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/33297-Long-term-TSLA-Investment-Strategy
Also, for anyone interested, your advice/input is greatly appreciated:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/33297-Long-term-TSLA-Investment-Strategy
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