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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Here is commentary from the Barclays analyst. Doesn't sound bearish to me... I think today was a bunch of shorts trying to make something out of the crashes and inflammatory headlines that followed.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...SLA),+Says+Barclays/9641997.html?si_client=st


One more thing: Wait time on Tesla website says "October" for S60s and S85s. Thats 3-4 months.... looks like increased demand to me. If I remember correctly, used to be 2-3 months.

Thanks for the heads up. From the UK delivery thread, it appears that Barclays has underestimated UK deliveries. The use of the phrase, "demand is likely plateauing" demonstrates that this analyst still doesn't get it, even though the rest of the article is basically faint praise.
 
What if the gigafactory doesn't actually materialize-or, for that matter, doesn't materialize in the next 8 months. There's now an unsubstantiated report that panasonic will only give 200 million$, and the ground breaking that was scheduled for last month didn't happen.
Is the stock about to get hit with a number of bear "gigafactory not going to happen!" articles?

I recall reports indicating that Panasonic will contribute incrementally as demand warrants rather than all at once. That makes sense to me, and should not be a problem.

I recall the original plan was for Panasonic and its suppliers to raise about $1 billion.
 
Thanks for the heads up. From the UK delivery thread, it appears that Barclays has underestimated UK deliveries. The use of the phrase, "demand is likely plateauing" demonstrates that this analyst still doesn't get it, even though the rest of the article is basically faint praise.

(my bolding of prior post)

it was Barclays in May that resurrected the BMW threat storyline

“We think BMW have positioned themselves as technology leaders in this field potentially to out-rival Tesla,” the analysts said.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2014/05/06/move-over-tesla-and-make-way-for-an-electric-bmw/

IIRC this sparked another round of silly articles once again about the i3 potential "Tesla killer."
 
I agree it's not firm tone for GB in June, but it implies July should be most probably if it didn't happen in June, otherwise why mentioned June timeline at all. Also if it's not GB in July, then how to answer the same GF question in Q2 ER call from Elon?

Nothing was positively scheduled. In response to a question about groundbreaking during the May 7 conference call, Musk answered in a less than firm tone, "...probably next month."

Negotiations can be tricky and hard to place into a precise timetable.

- - - Updated - - -

Can anybody who's familar with Panasonic financials give some ideas if $1B is a real hard investment from Panasonic?

I recall the original plan was for Panasonic and its suppliers to raise about $1 billion.
 
I cannot believe today's drop anything to do with crash. What car is less than a total with crash at 100 miles an hr. Survival of driver the surprise not that some fool stole a car and crashed it at 100 miles/hr. Decrease in demand doesn't fit either. Increased production with earliest deliveries at least 4 months away doesn't fit either. Very surprised by today's drop
 
I cannot believe today's drop anything to do with crash. What car is less than a total with crash at 100 miles an hr. Survival of driver the surprise not that some fool stole a car and crashed it at 100 miles/hr. Decrease in demand doesn't fit either. Increased production with earliest deliveries at least 4 months away doesn't fit either. Very surprised by today's drop


I think it's the GigaFactory. GF made Tesla hit ATHs. People heard six weeks ago from EM and JB that we would have broken ground at the end of June. Now people are getting nervous (weak longs and speculators).

I am not surprised, and think there will be weakness until there is definitive good news on the GF.

We want photos of broken ground!
 
It's just the market. Repeat that mantra a lot when Tesla has little news.

Basically every solar was down 3-4% today. TSLA was down similarly. All appear to just be following the market.

I agree with this - just like there some recent unexpected upswings in price (to 240) with no news, I think this downswing is just following the market (and exaggerated as usual for TSLA).
 
I go with bots parsing the news sites as the reason for the two day slump. Since I believe most successful traders are on vacation. That said, I have an unreasonable that both good and bad news comes in 3. I am crossing my finger and knocking on wood.

Maybe the 3rd bad news is hidden in why Tesla is investigating the LA crash car that's split in two. And maybe the thiefs potentially figured out a way to drive tesla without the key fob.

Waiting anxiously for the final analysis of this accident.
 
I think it's the GigaFactory. GF made Tesla hit ATHs. People heard six weeks ago from EM and JB that we would have broken ground at the end of June. Now people are getting nervous (weak longs and speculators).

I am not surprised, and think there will be weakness until there is definitive good news on the GF.

We want photos of broken ground!

I agree. I think this is what started the down-trend gong into July. Then the LA accident just added a little salt to the wound in people's confidence.

I am not particularly worried, and if the DO announce a ground-breaking in the next week or two, I would expect a substantial run-up.
 
People are ridiculous. My expectation is for Tesla to do it right. I'd rather have them take the time to execute properly than to rush to meet our expectations. We don't run the day to day and I'm pretty sure the team (Gilbert, Elon, JB, etc.) are probably better at their jobs than some of us.

They took the time with Model S and it turned out amazing. Taking time for Model X and the Beta is already amazing. Take the time with the Gigafactory and it's going to pay immense dividends.
 
Maybe the 3rd bad news is hidden in why Tesla is investigating the LA crash car that's split in two. And maybe the thiefs potentially figured out a way to drive tesla without the key fob.

Waiting anxiously for the final analysis of this accident.

Tesla had already confirmed they wanted to look at the car only because there have been so few that were involved in such large real-world accidents. Entirely logical and valid reasoning IMO.
 
Tesla had already confirmed they wanted to look at the car only because there have been so few that were involved in such large real-world accidents. Entirely logical and valid reasoning IMO.

Agreed. It is my understanding that Volvo still sends out a team to investigate any collision involving serious bodily injury. Makes sense. If you want to build the safest car possible you take every opportunity to learn from horific crashes.
 
The lawsuit in China turns out to be the 3rd bad news. It's just noise, however, and may provide an opportunity today.

The GF will be announced this summer, and that coupled with the Model X beginning production will boost the stock price.
 
So any guesses on the likelyhood that Tesla goes under 220 today?

Since we seem to be in the 'negative' mojo phase right now, pretty good. I suspect a drop under $220 sometime today with some recovery and ending about 220.

I will be sitting on the sidelines today unless we get a big drop ( >5%)

Edit; Well it has dipped below 220 premarket. While premarket is not always a good indicator of the day's activity it is below 220.
 
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