Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[DaveT]

maybe Dave, They will have this as the main announcement at TMConnect

"Guys, you might have heard about that whole 400 mile pack thing... but what we were saving just to tell you guys, was that this will also include the ability to supercharge!"

Sigh, I am probably dreaming, but I have a friend who would be oh so happy to be able to make use of the Superchargers!

Not sure about announcing at TMC Connect, though that would be awesome. But I can definitely imagine some elated Roadster owners if/when they announce supercharging with the new upgraded pack. Just a 400 mile battery pack is okay but doesn't make (some/most) Roadster owners dance. But a 400 mile battery pack with supercharging... and at a reasonable price (under $25k? I'm not sure about this though)... that would definitely cause some celebration among (some) Roadster owners... not Fango though (j/k).

 

[FANGO]

I agree with this, strongly. Without going into the range wars again, I don't see why the two choices have to be exclusive. As battery technology progresses, I hope we will be able to pick either lighter/cheaper batteries with the same range, or same weight/same price batteries with longer range.

Someone brought up on the other thread that it would be great if there were an option to have a "lighter" upgrade and a "max-range" upgrade. Obviously, I would have no problem whatsoever with that. That would be amazing, and would make for even better headlines.

 

[NigelM]

There won't be an announcement at TMC Connect; Elon likes to announce these things himself and he's not available this year. You can be 100% certain that Diarmuid O'Connell will get asked though.

On the whole I think that having the option would be good and a 400mile battery option will make headlines; but....it will be darned expensive as it likely will need a new PEM as well as battery, also to make Supercharging available there's all sorts of other stuff that needs upgrading starting with the charge plug and going back from there. And don't forget that changing the Chargeport will also necessitate changing the owners home charging set up. All this with components to be produced in low volumes....

P.S. I'm a Roadster owner also. I relate to what Fango is saying.

 

[roblab]

This is like reading a Leaf owner's forum. "I don't need extra range at extra cost. I never go more than 60 miles". Et cetera. Of course, if you live in a suburban area, you might have figured that 200 miles of useful range was good enough for you. Now you own a Roadster, NO one else might want extra range. Fine.

I live in the hills. It is 30 miles to town. It is 100 miles to Big Town. It is 120 miles to Bonnie's Place (never been there...). It is 300 miles to my brother's house. So when I bought a car, range was important. I never even considered a Leaf, and a 200+ mile range car that couldn't recharge in less than two hours might have put it off my radar. So I own a Model S.

Do I want more range? HECK yes. Do you? Maybe not.

It didn't sound like they were going to make everyone buy their upgrade, and as they say, there might be more to the announcement. I hope FANGO gets his Christmas wish list and will be ecstatically happy. But there's not much use to complain at this date. I didn't hear that Tesla was polling everyone to see what they really wanted.

My motto is, "Wait and See."

 

[Chickenlittle]

There won't be an announcement at TMC Connect; Elon likes to announce these things himself and he's not available this year. You can be 100% certain that Diarmuid O'Connell will get asked though..

Not so sure about this. Musk sharing spot light more. He was not at last Detroit auto show when Jerome pre announced the surprise results on car deliveries

 

[StephenM]

Just the fact of the reaffirmation of the Gen III.....errrr, Model III timeline should really bolster the stock tomorrow, no? Roadster range extension to 400 miles (Roadster owners meh response notwithstanding) should also impress the general public. I suspect a nice short squeeze will be coming.

 

[SteveG3]

Someone brought up on the other thread that it would be great if there were an option to have a "lighter" upgrade and a "max-range" upgrade. Obviously, I would have no problem whatsoever with that. That would be amazing, and would make for even better headlines.

Fango, I understand you wanted a different option... who knows maybe they'll offer your cocktail too.

As to why a 400 mile range. I would say that most likely the number one request Elon and Tesla have heard from Roadster owners is SuperCharging. He'd like to do it, but it just is not practical from what he's publicly said. Why wouldn't Elon and Tesla infer from this that Roadster owners really want more road trip ability? If we can't deliver SuperCharging for them, let's deliver the next best thing, more day trip range. So, to DaveT's conjecture, I don't see the 400 mile battery as a precursor to SuperCharging, but as a great next best thing that Tesla actually can deliver.

 

[vgrinshpun]

On the whole I think that having the option would be good and a 400mile battery option will make headlines; but....it will be darned expensive as it likely will need a new PEM as well as battery, also to make Supercharging available there's all sorts of other stuff that needs upgrading starting with the charge plug and going back from there. And don't forget that changing the Chargeport will also necessitate changing the owners home charging set up. All this with components to be produced in low volumes..

It is not just upgrading existing components, the supercharging will require addition of the new components to roadster, and that is why I think it is unlikely. One of the main physical limitations preventing supercharging of the Roadsters is absence of the switching equipment (contactor) to allow by-passing the on-board charger in order to route DC current from the charging port directly to the battery. In fact, during the last year Geneva Auto Show Elon mentioned this as a main reason that supercharging can't be offered for Roadsters. I doubt that there is much space to allow for the addition of this switching equipment. Having said that, TM proved many times that they know how to resolve technical challenges...

 

[NigelM]

This is like reading a Leaf owner's forum. "I don't need extra range at extra cost. I never go more than 60 miles". Et cetera. Of course, if you live in a suburban area, you might have figured that 200 miles of useful range was good enough for you. Now you own a Roadster, NO one else might want extra range. Fine.

Thats a little unfair. I've been driving my Roadster for over three years and I'd actually quite like a 400 mile battery in my Roadster, my point was that the details are going to be a lot more complicated (and likely cost prohibitive) than the headline. This is a TSLA thread so the question is will the headlines affect the stock or will the details push it in the opposite direction.

 

[Majerus]

I doubt it. It would require a complete restructuring of Roadster's charging system, which is markedly different from that of the Model S. And the fact that he's put the headline of "400 miles - able to drive from SF to LA without stopping" rather than "now you can use superchargers on your drive from SF to LA" suggests to me that, no, supercharging access won't be included.

I would be happy if I'm wrong (even though I plan to rarely if ever use superchargers), but I just don't think it's going to work out that way. The consensus of the technically-minded Roadster owners over in the Roadster section is the same. The issue is the charging system, not the battery.

edit: not to mention that Elon has said on multiple occasions that it is not possible. Maybe that was a smokescreen, but....I really think it's not possible.

Bit of speculation, as the supercharger bypasses the onboard charger perhaps tesla would add a connector to the battery pack for just supercharging.

 

[JRP3]

I would not expect SC access for the Roadster, too many changes involved, plus the extra range should mean less of a need for SC access.

As to the stock price, to me this shows proof of a clear upgrade path for existing EV's which should help keep resale values high, which should help future sales, which should boost the stock price. Of course the market may not share my logic.

 

[MartinAustin]

I expect that the ability to Supercharge will be part of the battery upgrade. That will just get revealed in some future moment. Since the car cost over $130,000 in the first place, we should expect the upgrade to cost a pretty penny ($30,000 or more), and include extra parts, not just new, super-dense 18650's. Then all Tesla cars will be part of the same big Supercharging family, rather than having one older model sticking out awkwardly. Old batteries will be recycled at the Gigafactory.

The other thing to consider about the Roadster upgrade is that it's what, 2,600 cars? That's not that many... it's a one-time very-low-volume retrofit. (btw $30,000 x 2600 cars = $78million revenues assuming every owner goes ahead)

I don't think Roadster stuff will move TSLA significantly, however - the Model 3 announcements should be good tomorrow:

* Announcing the final name
* Announcing it will be revealed in 2016
* "on sale by 2017" which technically means end-of-the-year, but I think it will be a late 2016/early 2017 situation
* further strengthening of the range projection - now it's "realistically more than 200 miles" - what, 205? 215? 225? All are very comforting... IMO the car will be capable of 300 miles with a super-economical driving style.
* less critical, but still nice, is "strong performance" - it will kill the 335i and so on, if it is even cheaper to run than the Model S.
* Auto Express's mockup pics don't hurt, some people will think they are looking at the official pics (and it looks pretty nice )

 

[Jack6591]

I think a Chris Porritt design at this price level, with Tesla Tech, and world class performance will overwhelm the world.

My name Bond, Nikola Bond.

 

[Cankooo1]

In my opinion it’s not important how much the upgrade will cost or how practical it will be.
This is strong manifest of how superior their engineering team is and how they are constantly pushing the frontier. At the moment other multi-billion companies are just dreaming for a model with 200 miles and they are projecting that they may be able to produce it 2015-2016. At the same time Tesla is saying: we will upgrade 6 year old car to 400 miles just like this.

 

[Curt Renz]

the Model III name is cool too...

Roman numeral problem: Model III means Model Three thus implying that Model X means Model Ten.

 

[MartinAustin]

Agreed, Curt and Cankooo1

 

[mibaro2]

I think the stock will go up today based on the Roadster battery upgrade news.

Although there is debate as to whether Roadster owners want a 400 mile battery pack, this is a big item for the public and stock owners. No reason for Range anxiety now.
Concern about an aging battery pack is a common theme I have seen that keep some potential buyers away.

 

[ggr]

Roman numeral problem: Model III means Model Three thus implying that Model X means Model Ten.

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds ;-)

- - - Updated - - -

I think the stock will go up today based on the Roadster battery upgrade news.

Although there is debate as to whether Roadster owners want a 400 mile battery pack, this is a big item for the public and stock owners. No reason for Range anxiety now.
Concern about an aging battery pack is a common theme I have seen that keep some potential buyers away.

I don't see this as market-moving news. There are only a few thousand of us, probably not all will need or want the upgrade, depending on how much it costs. I guess it's good as a proof of concept.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I think the stock will go up today based on the Roadster battery upgrade news.

I'm holding my breath...nothing happening so far.

Now I wonder if the news got out a couple of days ago and that is what produced the 4% rise on Monday. Has there been a consensus opinion about what that jump was all about? Don't think so.

It's probably going to take an analyst opinion, like from Adam Jonas, to produce the next big move up...

 

[Ugliest1]

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds ;-)

True, but I like that we're back to the original model layout: S3X