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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Potential Catalysts coming up:

  • News about the mixed production line being online and running smoothly (with first Model Xs going through?)
  • Model X Alpha/Beta/Production Reveal
  • First Model X Order Confirmations (?)
  • Gigafactory news (site confirmation, new partners etc.)

Well we got the first of my positive catalyst it seems...:) Very good news. This also negates a lot of potential negative catalysts.

Looks like we are all set for Model X!
 
Looks to be trending down after the pop this morning... but it is holding out ok. At this rate I would put it at 261 - 261.50 closing price. But if we can hold out this should be a solid bullish signal to go ahead and continue on up. Hopefully we don't have a case of the Tuesdays tomorrow... With a giant intraday drop.

I hope we can stay above $263, it'd mean we pierced the M.
 
You are the one with the "proprietary formula" you tell me! :p

But the beat on the "M" (double top) if we are basing this on closing price, will just need to beat 262.01... at least according to Google's historical prices.

There is my need to be right and become the Tesla prophet with my proprietary formula and then there's making money. Any time I can make more money I choose that.
 
There is my need to be right and become the Tesla prophet with my proprietary formula and then there's making money. Any time I can make more money I choose that.

Soooo what you are saying is, your formula is wrong, but that's ok because we are all making money? ;)

In fairness, didn't you say that news events generally messed up your formula anyway... I am almost positive that the report from last night is having an affect on the stock, combine that with the news released by Elon (intentionally or not) that China is now the number 2 country in the world for sales, pushing Norway to 3rd (go check out the social chat thread for the video) and that is a nice recipe for a jump. I believe this would fall under that 40% error in your formula :D
 
Yeah,
The day's not over yet though.

Anyway, I should mention how I usually trade this. Because of 60% accuracy, you can use martingale for bankroll management. but to ad extra layer of security, I usually don't do anything unless it's a bigger than one percentage move. On top of that, I only trade the direction and trust the magnitude less. So I wouldn't take out a strategy like a call spread with max profit at 1% then sell call at 2%. There's risk, then there gambling with something you don't understand.
 
Unicorns prancing:

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OMG The FUD... It burns us, precious!

That was a particularly good one... by which I mean ignorance of the realities... creative with the untruths... etc.

It would appear that Bloomberg is descending into click-bait. Even though the video header frame is a picture of Elon Musk, he does not appear in this clip... this is not an Elon Musk interview in case anyone about to click it thinks it will be. It's not. Just a couple of pundits waffling on.
 
I watched many interviews with corry regarding TSLA, and it seems that he is butthurt about TSLA.
Its always that he comes up with the most ridicous FUD claims.
"no time horizon for the second car"
WTF Model X has a clear time horizon.

While I like Bloomberg, corry seems to be the person that got there without knowing much about companies or finance.
I would expect people like him doing the talk on FOXNews, but not Bloomberg.
 
That was a particularly good one... by which I mean ignorance of the realities... creative with the untruths... etc.

It would appear that Bloomberg is descending into click-bait. Even though the video header frame is a picture of Elon Musk, he does not appear in this clip... this is not an Elon Musk interview in case anyone about to click it thinks it will be. It's not. Just a couple of pundits waffling on.

Haha That's so true I hadn't considered that. I was just doing a search for "Elon Musk" so it must have worked for me haha!
 
Because I was taking the time to refute some other claims over in the Model S Delivery Sections I ended up making some rough guesses on how they still meet their production requirement of 9000 cars by end of Q3. Feel free to read the whole thing here: Delivery Delay - 2014 Model S - Page 4

The juicy bits:
-If they were supposed to be at 800 out the gate and they are going to ramp up to 1000 in 3-5 weeks, lets go with 4 as a medium, a sequential ramp each week would be an extra 50 a week (800 this week, 850 the 1st, 900 the 2nd, 950 the 3rd, 1000 the 4th - which is the week starting Sept 22).
-One week behind, based on this assumed sequential ramp, means to me that everyone got shifted back 1 week and the ramp up will close that gap.
-Given that noone has had a shift in dates from ~15th on you can reasonably assume that they will be caught back up by then which would be the start of week 3 or at 900 a week run rate.

How we still meet guidance:
-9000 estimated produced for Q3.
-Pre-shutdown as far as I know they were running 5 days a week, at 160 cars a day giving 14 working days for 2,240.
-Startup on Aug 4th and lets just assume this week starts at 800 with my carry forward estimate of 1000 by week 5, that gives ~4,900 cars produced starting today through the end of the Quarter.
-Combined would equal 7,140 leaving our unknown 3 week gap in which they will need to have made 1860 cars, which is an average of 620 a week (note this would include Saturdays for right now, unclear how long they are going to be running 6 days)...
-while this would be "behind" in terms of starting back up at 800 from the get-go, they clearly still have wiggle room assuming they averaged 620 cars each week over the past week.
-To give a simple example, they could have been running at 560 week one, 600 week two, and 700 week three and STILL clear their guidance.

I actually don't think it was nearly this dramatic of a drop, but just giving you an idea of an almost worst case scenario as they started the factory back up again and how they can still meet targets.
 
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