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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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It's not yet full-blown panic, but that could happen too, especially since the next earnings report feels so far in the future, it may as well be next century.

Me, I'm a buyer.
Yes, and good luck to you, but this is the Short Term TSLA Price Movement Thread? Short term this does not look good, and Q4 will probably come in a bit below target, and otherwise no positive short time triggers in the next month. So that is my opinion in the short term thread. This could go beyond 200 before it turns. Long term, 5 -10 years, it is probably a very good bet. I guess there is a Long Term thread for that.
 
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Yes, and good luck to you, but this is the Short Term TSLA Price Movement Thread? Short term this does not look good, and Q4 will probably come in a bit beyond target, and otherwise no positive short time triggers in the next handful of months. So that is my opinion in the short term thread. This could go beyond 200 before it turns. Long term, 5 -10 years, it is probably a very good bet. I guess there is a Long Term thread for that.
Settle down. I didn't say it looked good. I also did say that it could turn into panic. I explained why I think the price dropped recently, which is why I posted it here.
 
I actually don't think sentiment is all that bad relative to the past. We've seen plenty of times when people were fearing margin calls and losing all of their profits because they took crazy bets. I haven't heard that this time around, yet.

I'm a buyer too, but I don't have unlimited cash. Remember, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. It is prudent to discuss what is driving the price down and what catalysts there are on the horizon which could turn it around. Yes, I agree some of the conspiracy theories go too far, and some people are blind with euphoria when things are going well. There are people here that keep their heads on both sides and always have. I'm here to hear from those people. The rest I just kind of filter out.

I hope that you guys can tell the difference too.
 
If TM can meet its own guidance in 2014, if Model X is not delay again, if P85D is shipped from beginning of December. Then we should be well around ATH now.

Remember TSLA price is built on "perfect" execution, the market will punish TSLA hard in short term if there are continuous execution errors even the long term prospect stay the same.

What I'm afraid now is the AJ from MS might publish another negative note about potential Q4 miss due to P85D delay. In very short term, I think we should see a rebound on next Monday after this ever 6 straight down in past 18 months.
 
To my mind, it's just the overall cold stream of ominous news that the market only knows to interpret negatively: the dramatic drop in oil prices, the previous divestment by Toyota and Daimler, the public cold shoulder from BMW, the constant noises from VW/Audi about their Tesla killer, which will have long range, long legs, and beautiful eyes, and is coming real soon now, etc. There is a general feeling that Tesla is alone in a hostile world and who knows, maybe they won't be able to pull it off, after all.

The market is having withdrawal symptoms. Tesla investors are addicted to the rush of spectacular news coming every couple of weeks. We want to see green constantly, we want a new ATH every 8 weeks, we want fresh analyst upgrades. Above all, we want Elon to tweet sweetly into our ears. When all that is replaced by longer periods of silence, because, you know, Tesla workers have to wake up every morning and actually build the freaking cars, sentiment drops like blood sugar level after swallowing barrels of ice cream while binging on Elon Musk appearances on YouTube. The market is insecure because it doesn't understand Tesla, nor the other manufacturers' capabilities, nor the unbounded vastness of the addressable market, nor, especially, that Rome wasn't built in a day, so it quickly loses heart ("OMG Tesla hasn't called me in days!!! she doesn't love me!!!!"). It's not yet full-blown panic, but that could happen too, especially since the next earnings report feels so far in the future, it may as well be next century.

Me, I'm a buyer.

Very well said. I'm buying too. I think this is the bottom. I invested big at around 223. I just can't see this doing what the naysayers expect. Breaching the H&S neckline at 220 and then drop to wherever. I am banking on a reversal right above that neckline at today's LOD.
 
If TM can meet its own guidance in 2014, if Model X is not delay again, if P85D is shipped from beginning of December. Then we should be well around ATH now.

Remember TSLA price is built on "perfect" execution, the market will punish TSLA hard in short term if there are continuous execution errors even the long term prospect stay the same.

What I'm afraid now is the AJ from MS might publish another negative note about potential Q4 miss due to P85D delay. In very short term, I think we should see a rebound on next Monday after this ever 6 straight down in past 18 months.

To be "contrarian" at this point would mean Jonas is due for a positive note. If he wants to stay "edgy" as he has recently, next note may indeed be a positive one. Remember, he still has a $320 price target.
 
Very well said. I'm buying too. I think this is the bottom. I invested big at around 223. I just can't see this doing what the naysayers expect. Breaching the H&S neckline at 220 and then drop to wherever. I am banking on a reversal right above that neckline at today's LOD.

I hope you are right. I have bought some calls for next week, December monthlies, March, and j17's. I still have a good bit of cash left to deploy in case this isn't the bottom. I think we could see the teens but I don't want to miss a run if this is the bottom. The 200 day and the H&S are my two big technical concerns. If the H&S goes all the way $200 should provide amazing support but I don't think it will come to that.

I know the P85D delays are just a blip, however no matter how you dice it, it is an execution error that still doesn't appear to have made it to the mainstream news yet. I am extremely surprised FUDsters haven't picked it up. I have concern about this until after it hits the news.
 
If you looked at any other carmaker on the planet, would a week's delay in delivering a new car model be newsworthy? A month? Two?

I think we on the forum here have spun a non-issue into an issue here. Be careful betting to the downside on that.
 
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Originally Posted by MikeC viewpost-right.png
Haven't seen this much negativity on this board since the fires. I don't know about technicals or catalysts, but I'm a buyer here just based on the level of negative sentiment. I'm confident that oil prices won't affect Model S demand and P85D delays are a blip. When I start to see people talking about selling with a plan to buy back in at a lower price, I begin to suspect we're close to a bottom.

^^^This has been true in the past^^^ and when everyone starts writing poetry when the stock is going up it is time to sell:wink:
Guilty as charged - but I plead leniency as I only wrote Hi-Q verse (haiku) versus all those Limericks, and besides that was soo long ago. :tongue:
 
I hope you are right. I have bought some calls for next week, December monthlies, March, and j17's. I still have a good bit of cash left to deploy in case this isn't the bottom. I think we could see the teens but I don't want to miss a run if this is the bottom. The 200 day and the H&S are my two big technical concerns. If the H&S goes all the way $200 should provide amazing support but I don't think it will come to that.

I know the P85D delays are just a blip, however no matter how you dice it, it is an execution error that still doesn't appear to have made it to the mainstream news yet. I am extremely surprised FUDsters haven't picked it up. I have concern about this until after it hits the news.

I really believe 220 is the line in the sand. If 220 goes, then 200 will go, but not immediately. We would likely experience a bounce from 200 to 220 and then further retracement to 180-185. Would have to be absolute madness for 220 to break at this point in the game. I believe we'll retake the 200 SMA next week. I think there is a lot of panic selling today. Hopefully, people will come to their senses over the weekend. We'll see the Santa rally and at least break 228 on Monday.
 
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If you looked at any other carmaker on the planet, would a week's delay in delivering a new car model be newsworthy? A month? Two?

I think we on the forum here have spun a non-issue into an issue here. Be careful betting to the downside on that.

Neither is a car fire. Tesla has set a new standard and they are being held to that standard.

My concern is that if it's something out of Tesla's control, like the EPA sticker thing. That issue could sit on someone's desk for a week or two. I run into issues like this all the time with the utility companies dragging their feet giving us permission to turn a solar system on.

This could prevent 1000 $120k cars from being delivered. That's $120m of lost revenue because someone in some other agency didn't make it a priority. This issue has the potential to cause TM to miss their targets and cause a loss EPS.

I think they can get this resolved, however I feel it is wise to consider a scenario like this. And until Tesla issues a PR explaining the delay, the issue is anyone's guess.
 
Food for thought.

Winter weather seems to be a bit of a downer for Tesla owners, at least those who deal with cold weather. This is about the time of the year when people start coming on the forums complaining about the reduced range they see. These criticisms are valid. For some people in certain circumstances, it is a real big problem. If you have a Models S 60 and have a lengthy commute it is a problem 3 months out of the year... and you can extrapolate to the Gen III ~200 mile range, it will also be an issue. I cringe whenever I see these complaints because the media is always looking for some piece of news to sensationalize.

I don't think its an insurmountable problem for Tesla to solve... but at the same time i think it does and will have a short term impact on TSLA share price.
 
What could be a near term news driving TSLA higher? I just don't see any for this year. Model x reveal is probably in q1 or early q2.

Model 3 prototype(reveal), I believe will happen in late 2015 or early 2016. I expect less and less time between product reveal to actual production time going forward.

What else do people think would drive the stock higher in near term?
 
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