Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[joefee]

Looks like a good call @justthateasy. Sold the remaining of my position last week, and waiting for a level to get back in. Speculating if this and last week's drop is due to some insider information leaking into the market about D production problems, given no deliveries yet? With the number of people on the floor at Freemont, such things would be hard to keep completely secret.

Delay maybe as simple as this

"Monday following a Friday report from Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry suggesting that the Elon Musk-headed electric vehicle company would be delaying the delivery of its P85D sedan until next week.

The company is scheduled to deliver the vehicle on Wednesday, but Chowdhry believes that Tesla is waiting for new stickers with updated EPA driving range estimates. To support his claim Chowdhry posted pictures of the new stickers which showed an EPS driving range of 242 miles that was less than the 285 miles Tesla had claimed the vehicle was capable of at its launch."

 

[AlMc]

What do you guys think about those 2017 Jan 300 LEAPS?

I am adding to my J17s 200/240. I have not looked at the 300s. I am more comfortable with less leverage at this time in TMs history. Short term predictions are tough. The only thing TM green today are some Dec puts I picked up last week with all the 'D' talk and nothing coming out of Fremont that was positive. I do believe EM will not be silent much longer and agree with Nigel who posted on another thread that this is looking like a good time to buy. I do not have the b**ls to go 'all in' with cash reserve at this time but I am hoping it can't get much worse.

Did you get your 300S?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

So much FUD in the news and Musk hasn't commented on any of it. Sign he isn't worried about it? Also, it's been unusually quiet on TMC. Thoughts?

 

[Noble Ninja]

This weakness is clearly something TSLA is going through for its own reasons, so I won't blame NASDAQ this time, however, I just wanted to point out that the drop is also accentuated by what happens in the larger market. In the last minutes, NASDAQ did experience a sudden fall. Many stocks are at their lows of the day.

This weakness is clearly the overall market and the hit on TSLA is amplified as usual.

 

[The Blue Owl]

This weakness is clearly the overall market and the hit on TSLA is amplified as usual.

The reason I think TSLA has some internal weakness, uncorrelated with the market, is that in the morning NASDAQ was moving sharply up and TSLA sharply down. This also happened last week several times.

 

[NigelM]

Speculating if this and last week's drop is due to some insider information leaking into the market about D production problems, given no deliveries yet? With the number of people on the floor at Freemont, such things would be hard to keep completely secret.

The delays are not a secret (although the exact reasons are not completely clear) and no insider leaks are necessary, delays to D deliveries have been widely discussed here and I've seen that discussion picked up in the press already.

 

[Tuxedo]

The delays are not a secret (although the exact reasons are not completely clear)

Yes, but what worries me is that the exact reasons may be known and completely clear to some players in the market.

 

[aznt1217]

I think it's time to recall a similar post I made this time last year.

Has the Tesla Motors story changed? Nope.
Has the management team changed? Nope.
Has the ways of working changed? Nope.
Have the bears changed their mind? Nope.

Good. Time to make some money.

 

[jhm]

Keep Calm & Buy More TSLA.

 

[Gerardf]

I think it's time to recall a similar post I made this time last year.

Has the Tesla Motors story changed? Nope.
Has the management team changed? Nope.
Has the ways of working changed? Nope.
Have the bears changed their mind? Nope.

Good. Time to make some money.

I am 'very' long and fully agree.

A lot of shares are down. SCTY is down 2.28% today. Also Chineese EV (KNDI) is down 4.2%
I assume it is the low oil prices and people have put TSLA in that (wrong) basket.

My prediction is that once some news comes out (Model-X, Q4, Model-3) we might go upwards pretty steep. Specially in case also Oil prices should go up, but also without that.
I am just sorry I do not have more cash at hand to profit even more of that upswing.

I think this is much more interesting news than the oil price for TSLA : "Buying a car for $55,000 or $60,000 has become the new norm for those who are fairly well off."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102247208 (found via SA, but let's not give them more clicks )

The market for Model-3 will beat everones expectation, and any news on that will make TSLA jump big time as there are still many who do not beleive Tesla can make that real.

 

[hockeythug]

I think people outside of our little bubble here have grown tired of the delays.

 

[Gtoffo]

I think it's time to recall a similar post I made this time last year.

Has the Tesla Motors story changed? Nope.
Has the management team changed? Nope.
Has the ways of working changed? Nope.
Have the bears changed their mind? Nope.

Good. Time to make some money.

Agreed.

However, another thing that hasn't changed is Tesla's poor handling of PR.
The way you handle problems in a company like Tesla is to be transparent and upfront about it and to "own the story".
They are leaving the market, their clients and the press alone and allowing them to speculate freely. This leads easily to exaggeration and overreaction. Just add the malicious intents of many and you have a crisis on your hands over something that should be a non issue.

I hope the recent changes in the communications department signify they are aware of this and are working on a solution. I'm afraid Elon underestimates this issue though....

 

[NigelM]

Yes, but what worries me is that the exact reasons may be known and completely clear to some players in the market.

We can be pretty certain it's not a catastrophic issue, best bet is that there's been some mess-up with the Monroney stickers. I have zero fear about buying at this level.

 

[uselesslogin]

What do you guys think about those 2017 Jan 300 LEAPS?

I think I'd like to thank you for pointing those out to me. I'm pretty surprised those are that cheap actually.

 

[jhm]

Agreed.

However, another thing that hasn't changed is Tesla's poor handling of PR.
The way you handle problems in a company like Tesla is to be transparent and upfront about it and to "own the story".
They are leaving the market, their clients and the press alone and allowing them to speculate freely. This leads easily to exaggeration and overreaction. Just add the malicious intents of many and you have a crisis on your hands over something that should be a non issue.

I hope the recent changes in the communications department signify they are aware of this and are working on a solution. I'm afraid Elon underestimates this issue though....

I agree. This is why I would favor Tesla releasing monthly sales data. I'd rather have a real discussion around credible data than to allow the media to run amuck with whatever nonsense they can dredge up. Tesla needs to own up to the information void they leave open and take control of the narrative.

 

[Hogfighter]

This feels a whole lot like this past May. Not any real change to the story, just a lack of positive catalysts and lots of naysayers.

At times like this, I look to fundamentals. TSLA is trading at around 4x 2015 sales. That's cheap for a company growing at 50% per year. If oil stays down (or falls further) it will continue to put negative pressure on TSLA short term (undeserved, but true nonetheless) and will create an incredible buying opportunity.

We may see a tweet in the not-so-distant future explaining the EPA ratings and P85D delays (or non-delays).

 

[Raffy.Roma]

We may see a tweet in the not-so-distant future explaining the EPA ratings and P85D delays (or non-delays).

Hope so. Would like the stock got the 200 DMA soon. Don't like the stock to be out of its technical borders.

 

[MartinAustin]

Phil LeBeau just tweeted -

Stat of the Day: Since high for crude on 6/20, oil is down 40%, BUT avg. price target for $TSLA is up 25%.

 

[AlMc]

Phil LeBeau just tweeted -

Stat of the Day: Since high for crude on 6/20, oil is down 40%, BUT avg. price target for $TSLA is up 25%.

I really like him. Balanced. No FUD either pro or con

 

[InTheShadows]

Hope so. Would like the stock got the 200 DMA soon. Don't like the stock to be out of its technical borders.

Me too. We hit the low teens which I thought might happen. I have a little cash left for if we get close to 206, which I don't think will happen. 213 seemed to have a good bit of support. Is this a fib number or something?

$244 from 5 days ago seems so far away now. I hope we return to that level soon.

I still really haven't seen too much about the delays on the main news. I hope we start seeing bonafide P85D deliveries or get a meaningful response from TM soon.