Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[porc]

Tesla also doesn't have a 250 mile range car.

Also, porc, you say recharging times need to go down by 50%. Do you live in a part of the world where people only sleep 2 hours per night, or something? Do you know anything about how electric vehicles are used?

I am familiar with the usual argument EV enthusiasts make. However the key here is long term travel. I would agree that charging times are no problem in the city, as you charge overnight. However inter city travel is the key here.

Of course if you had taking a few seconds to think about this, you could have guessed that I am referring to inter city travel.

Secondly as I have stated already, the 120 mile range figure references a typical electric car range before Tesla arrived.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Someone posted something about a VIP Lounge event on the 18th. Anyone have any info on this?

Why hasn't Tesla commented on any of the FUD?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Are TSLA long doomed? Another 5 straight down days and RSI at historic low ever 23.48!!! This down slope is way way too sharp even post fire down slope is not comparable.

If this stuff really bothers you, perhaps TSLA (or any individual stock for that matter) is above your level of risk tolerance. Nothing about the fundamentals of Tesla Motors has changed, and there has been no recent company-specific substantive news that would warrant the current downward trend.

Model X, Gigafactory, and Model 3 are still in the pipeline, and I believe it is likely that these will shock the auto industry just like Model S did in 2012.

I acknowledge that many people are upset by the significant plunge in stock price in recent weeks, but in my experience this has happened to most if not all stocks that became big hits over the very long run. AAPL, MSFT, INTC, and others had their ups and downs. If you can't sleep at night, buy some mutual funds. Actually, I strongly believe that most people should keep a core of their portfolio in index funds, so that a black swan event (Enron collapse comes to mind) won't destroy one's retirement. I do sleep well at night, because (1) I have faith that Tesla will achieve their goals and (2) Even if they don't my financial future isn't dependent on TSLA share price.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The Stochastic implies the acceleration of the move is declining (at historic lows), and the 14 day RSI of 9 is a historic low, and the VIX is very high. The technicals looks eerily similar to December 2013. Oversold? Now might be a good time for some news from Elon?

 

[lgagliardi]

I dont mean to be blunt but "porc" is so far off it is ridiculous. Put aside all the market hype around TSLA. I drive my signature model s everyday. As time goes by (over 35,000 miles now) the car still drives like new. I am still soooo impressed by the car. I would NEVER own a different car and when I do drive one of my ICE cars now, it feels like I am in a horse and buggy. Now, I appreciate more and more everyday that when I get in my car, it is "full" every time. Toyota with their fuel cell is wonderful but I no longer want to go anywhere to "fuel" up. A road trip is different and I expect I will have to stop to "fuel" up but that is so rare for me. I also do not think 20 minutes to fuel for 3 hours of driving is an exhorbanttime to wait. Bottom line: no question Tesla will succeed and prosper from this time forth. I understand their are risks but they have answered every one of them magnificantly. How far will it go down? I would be suprised to see $175 but if you have the time horizon to hold on, it is absolutely a no brainer. I would bet on it and have as I am a significant stock holder and believe we will easily see $350 + by the end of next year and I believe that to be conservative. I have it in writing here so we shall see by next year.

Blessed Christmas to all.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Bottom line: no question Tesla will succeed and prosper from this time forth.

Agree but what worries me is that we have lost the 200 DMA (and don't know when we will get it again). This is an issue IMO for a technical stock like TSLA.

 

[JRP3]

Are TSLA long doomed?

Tesla longs will do quite well. This is a buying opportunity for Tesla longs. Consider it an Xmas present.

Agree but what worries me is that we have lost the 200 DMA (and don't know when we will get it again). This is an issue IMO for a technical stock like TSLA.

Only if you think TSLA is a "technical" stock.

 

[TSLAopt]

Agree but what worries me is that we have lost the 200 DMA (and don't know when we will get it again). This is an issue IMO for a technical stock like TSLA.

i wouldnt worry so much about the 200 DMA. Technicals can tell a story of the past but don't predict the future. in fact, no one can really predict the short term future of the stock market, that's why "short term price movements" are so fascinating and predicting them is mysterious. Long term movements on the other hand is predictable, and for TSLA it is much higher than where it is now in a few years....I am 80-90% certain of that. For TSLA globe higher than where it is now 1 year from now I am 60-70% certain of that! but for the next 1-2 months I am 50/50 on whether it willbe higher than it is now or lower than where it is now.

 

[dmunjal]

Agree but what worries me is that we have lost the 200 DMA (and don't know when we will get it again). This is an issue IMO for a technical stock like TSLA.

Breaking the 200 DMA doesn't mean we are in a free fall. It just means it will be significant resistance on the way back up. But something has to change in the market to initiate cash flows and bring back buyers again. This is more than just about oil and Tesla. It's about the Fed keeping deflationary forces at bay. In some ways, the market is calling the Fed's bluff about raising rates. It was similar to the taper tantrum last year. Let's see what they say tomorrow.

 

[woof]

Now obviously Tesla has increased the range from 120 something to 250 something miles per charge.

Also Tesla never had a 120 mile range car; please don't fabricate.

The Model S 40 kWh version has about a 120 mile range. Not many were sold, but they do exist. The Models S range didn't "increase from 120 to 250", but that was the original range of ranges (or close enough).

 

[Papafox]

Reality check:
Economy- Fed tightening of policy would shift some favor from stocks to bonds, but would a 5% bond really be enough to pull investors away from TSLA? This stock's growth trajectory will make most stock and bond alternatives appear unattractive.

Global economic slowdown- If demand is the critical ingredient in your company's success, then the economy is an important issue. If achieving the manufacturing process to meet insatiable demand is your company's challenge, then the state of the economy is of lesser importance.

 

[dmunjal]

Reality check:
Economy- Fed tightening of policy would shift some favor from stocks to bonds, but would a 5% bond really be enough to pull investors away from TSLA? This stock's growth trajectory will make most stock and bond alternatives appear unattractive.

Global economic slowdown- If demand is the critical ingredient in your company's success, then the economy is an important issue. If achieving the manufacturing process to meet insatiable demand is your company's challenge, then the state of the economy is of lesser importance.

I don't think a global economic slowdown will affect Tesla sales as much as say GM. Tesla sales will be not affected by the slowdown as there are still plenty of buyers for the car. But a slowdown will definitely affect TSLA the stock as it is tied to risk appetites.

 

[gameon]

You are saying economy goes down and people have more money to buy 70K EV.

Oil going down for political reason..to kick putin out of office.. I am not saying oil can go that low with US economy in better shape.

Tesla downturn started with delay of model X & energy sector hammer with oil price. Many energy stocks (SCTY for example) are at bargin price once oil settle down (plummeting like no tomorrow)

 

[stevej119]

Tesla never had a 120 mile range car; please don't fabricate.

I interpreted Porc's statement as meaning that Tesla advance the range of electric cars from 120 miles to 250, but I'm not aware of another electric car with a true range of over 100 miles.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Morgan Stanley lowering price target to $290, be prepared for another big drop tomorrow.

 

[sundaymorning]

i wouldnt worry so much about the 200 DMA. Technicals can tell a story of the past but don't predict the future. in fact, no one can really predict the short term future of the stock market, that's why "short term price movements" are so fascinating and predicting them is mysterious. Long term movements on the other hand is predictable, and for TSLA it is much higher than where it is now in a few years....I am 80-90% certain of that. For TSLA globe higher than where it is now 1 year from now I am 60-70% certain of that! but for the next 1-2 months I am 50/50 on whether it willbe higher than it is now or lower than where it is now.

Well said. This thread does a pretty decent job letting us know why prices dropped or spiked with hindsight and allows us to brainstorm a conclusion. However, predicting what will happen tomorrow based on today's data is a whole other animal. Once in awhile we beat the media to certain news that the market will react a little late to, which is a nice perk and is precisely why I'm a lurker.

Here's some good news related to the health of the global economy if you need evidence that low oil prices is helping the Euro zone.. Euro zone PMI data, an indicator of economic growth, came in at 51.7, above 51.1 estimate and above 51.1 from November, which shows growth, albeit it may be small. Germany's ZEW Institute's economic index was up to 34.9 points, from 11.5 in November and above analyst expectations of 20. Economist expect modest improvement in the fourth quarter bc of low oil prices. Germany avoided recession by .1% in the third Q thanks to a strong rise in consumer spending and small boost from foreign trade. The DAX was up 2% on his news..

US consumer spending up, Germany consumer spending up, Euro zone consumer spending up when oil is down. Is this coincidence? As stated previously, some sector will hurt bc of low oil, others will thrive. FEDS meet tomo, I'm predicting there will be some positives to come out from that, mainly because the recent pullback in the overall market will prevent FEDS from doing anything risky. Just my opinion.

 

[32no]

The Model S 40 kWh version has about a 120 mile range. Not many were sold, but they do exist. The Models S range didn't "increase from 120 to 250", but that was the original range of ranges (or close enough).

The Model S 40 kWh had 160 miles of range.

 

[justthateasy]

Morgan Stanley lowering price target to $290, be prepared for another big drop tomorrow.

That's perfectly fine with me, it only means a lower re-entry point.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Basically, Adam Jonas is lowering their unit forecast for Model 3 to 170K by 2020, and at the same time he's increasing the estimated starting price for the vehicle to $55K-$60K. Put it in the spreadsheet and you get a lower EPS outlook, hence the lowered price target.

Of coarse, these adjustments in outlook are making MS even more conservative then they already were. For the record, Tesla has stated they will produce 500K vehicles by 2020 and at a starting price of $35K-$40K.

 

[Curt Renz]

I am familiar with the usual argument EV enthusiasts make. However the key here is long term travel. I would agree that charging times are no problem in the city, as you charge overnight. However inter city travel is the key here.

Of course if you had taking a few seconds to think about this, you could have guessed that I am referring to inter city travel.

Secondly as I have stated already, the 120 mile range figure references a typical electric car range before Tesla arrived.

Don't you have airplanes in Germany? For long trips, I fly. For those who prefer cars, Tesla Supercharger stations are near restaurants. Most people want to stop, eat and visit a restroom after a couple of hundred miles. While they are doing that, their car is recharged for free.