Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Derek Vinyard]

02/12/15 Analyst Recomms and PTs

update from yesterday.

 

[dalalsid]

The only way I see Ford or GM getting around the dealerships is if/when Tesla wins the right to sell direct everywhere, Ford or GM spins off a new "company" that takes advantage of the same laws that Tesla is using. Otherwise they are stuck with the dealers and they have NO interest in selling BEV cars and likely never will.

I don't know about that. I've made it clear to any dealer I talk to that I'm currently leasing a Leaf/FFE/i3/b Class or whatever my next car will be just biding my time until the Model 3 arrives. I've seen awareness of EVs grow fast. I've stopped getting questions from strangers if the Leaf takes gas. I've seen people stopped at light behind me clicking pictures of my license plate. Yesterday I saw a guy showing his son my car at a stop light. I've had a guy pull over next to me and signal me to roll down my window to ask how many miles the car goes. I'm sure Tesla owners are bothered a lot more than Leaf owners. I'm assuming that will come to some kind of tipping point where dealers pressure manufacturers into competing with Tesla (or Nissan or whoever makes EVs) because they are losing business. At least that is my hope

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Historical Recomms and PTs - Goldman Sachs

have a look and conclude.

 

[sub]

Yea I agree. There are just so many upsides to this company that I can't possibly remember them all. Tesla pretty much has a monopoly in terms of direct to customer sales, this monopoly btw is protected by state laws. No one in the industry has that.. so all automobile manufacturers have to go through dealerships. Plus Tesla is a tech company, hence using multiples from the auto industry really doesn't make sense.

I don't see this "exception" for Tesla holding up. The main issue I see for other dealers is the current state laws that prohibit manufacturers from having dealerships because they already have a dealership network, which obviously Tesla never had. I don't see how they get around this. Add that to the fact that they have to kill their main business in order to go EV in a significant way, talk about a rock and a hard place.

 

[InTheShadows]

I don't see this "exception" for Tesla holding up. The main issue I see for other dealers is the current state laws that prohibit manufacturers from having dealerships because they already have a dealership network, which obviously Tesla never had. I don't see how they get around this. Add that to the fact that they have to kill their main business in order to go EV in a significant way, talk about a rock and a hard place.

I think a good way to approach it would be similar to the way Toyota did with the Prius. Spin off a new brand with a whole new team of engineers to create a new car. Then use that model to create a new brand.

IMO "The ships are too big to turn, hire a new crew to build a dinghy. "

 

[CHGolferJim]

I think this was saved from greencarreports.com

 

[v12 to 12v]

The longer you wait, the closer Model X comes. Get in before Model X or you won't get in at all. Just sayin'.

Funny that you would mention that when there is this kind of activity before a holiday weekend.
Where is the Model X Test Mule? Is there one? - Page 53

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Share price seems to be holding above $200 pretty well. I think that speaks to market confidence in long-term prospects, even though the quarterly report was slightly below expectations.

2015 is going to be a very interesting year, and hopefully a great one!

 

[sub]

I think a good way to approach it would be similar to the way Toyota did with the Prius. Spin off a new brand with a whole new team of engineers to create a new car. Then use that model to create a new brand.

IMO "The ships are too big to turn, hire a new crew to build a dinghy. "

I agree with this but I don't know how the dealership laws are written, there may be wording in them that shuts down these types of "loop holes". I've heard Saturn mentioned before, were those sold through manufacturer dealerships? If so then they can do it again with EV.

 

[kenliles]

Share price seems to be holding above $200 pretty well. I think that speaks to market confidence in long-term prospects, even though the quarterly report was slightly below expectations.

2015 is going to be a very interesting year, and hopefully a great one!

based on TSLA alone, I'd be adding here; but the market itself is toppy now - DOW back to 18k; and VIX very low at 15. Any disruption now, world or otherwise is going to drop the overall market imo and everything with it. So I'm holding position and waiting to add- but nothing specifically due to TSLA

 

[sundaymorning]

I don't see this "exception" for Tesla holding up. The main issue I see for other dealers is the current state laws that prohibit manufacturers from having dealerships because they already have a dealership network, which obviously Tesla never had. I don't see how they get around this. Add that to the fact that they have to kill their main business in order to go EV in a significant way, talk about a rock and a hard place.

This may not be the case for all states, but the language written in some states' laws stipulates that any other manufacture who attempts to sell a car in such state after a specific date will be prohibited. This was written as a compromise with Tesla but won't jeopardize the dealer network as no other car company can follow Tesla's lead. The law didn't spell out Tesla's name of course, but effectively gave Tesla sole right and prohibited anyone after Tesla from entering. Which is why I call it a monopoly.

 

[ibcs]

Showing a little late day surge. Ameritrade headline at 3:03 EST says Gigafactory to begin operation in 2016 a year earlier than initially planned.

 

[uselesslogin]

Showing a little late day surge. Ameritrade headline at 3:03 EST says Gigafactory to begin operation in 2016 a year earlier than initially planned.

I think few of us bulls bought calls and lots of puts were bought. Manipulation works the other way too lol. Anyway, I wonder if this means we should expect a drop in a couple weeks or if other things will keep that from happening.

Edit: I say that because it is old news being repeated maybe to justify a surge. Have no idea really but I guess I thought the stock would be a little weaker. Still, after reading the letter Elon is right, it does seem the financial are better than they appear.

 

[sub]

This may not be the case for all states, but the language written in some states' laws stipulates that any other manufacture who attempts to sell a car in such state after a specific date will be prohibited. This was written as a compromise with Tesla but won't jeopardize the dealer network as no other car company can follow Tesla's lead. The law didn't spell out Tesla's name of course, but effectively gave Tesla sole right and prohibited anyone after Tesla from entering. Which is why I call it a monopoly.

I agree with what you are saying here, i'm just not sure that a law like that would hold up well in court? How can monopolies in theory be illegal yet at the same time have a law on the books that mandates it?

 

[uselesslogin]

Another question about institution holdings if anyone can answer. I think Elon owns about 27% of the company. Is his stake considered institutional or is it separate from the institutional percentage?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Wow, faster opening of GF = accelerated launch of Model 3........both highly material.

 

[ibcs]

I read an article that the average days back to the starting price from a drop from earnings announcement is 5 days for Tesla. Hoping for 220 by next Thursday or Friday.

 

[stealthology]

..Sold out half my AAPL position today because I just don't see the catalyst for a large move from here..

Do you think the larger screen phone was just a one off quarter type thing? Surely momentum will continue. China rev was up 70% q/q. Then you have Apple Watch, which I think we should all wait a couple months for it to come out before judging it. 14 of the top 23 Hospitals are piloting it right now according to Reuters. Also this year we have the re-branding of Beats Music (basically same thing as Spotify-- the future of music) into iTunes, and the likely bundling of it with iOS for the 6s. Apple's IBM partnership and Apple Pay will also be picking up steam this year. $178B in cash..

 

[sundaymorning]

I read an article that the average days back to the starting price from a drop from earnings announcement is 5 days for Tesla. Hoping for 220 by next Thursday or Friday.

Please delay that by a week so I can gather my funds. Was hoping it would drop a bit today but oh well...

 

[30seconds]

Even though I am committed long term holder I would of liked to see the market have something of a harsher response to the 4Q report. It was a miss from already reduced estimates and management should feel significant pressure. I get it that they are delivering on exceptional growth, in a complex and competitive space, but part of the decision making process for new car buyers is long-term confidence in the company. Management needs to protect their credibility to the financial markets.