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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Are you? Did TM actually call the Founders' delivery event a 'launch' or was that just us here and the press?
"Thank you for confirming your attendance to the Model X Launch Event..." was the official wording. I think, Zaxxon, that you were being somewhat ironic when you called it a 'launch'. Amiright? Because it wasn't what anyone else would call a 'launch event' since it doesn't appear as if even a dozen Model X's have been delivered in the four weeks since the event.
Yes, I'm being facetious. Tesla called it a launch, and a month later we have possibly 10 deliveries, zero of which are to regular (non-friend of the company) customers. No spec sheet, no regular pricing, no firm delivery dates for any Sigs, and Sig deliveries in the 500 range scheduled for mid-Jan.
It's another Tesla marketing joke.
Pretty clear to me that the 'launch' happened when it did to hit the Q3 deadline.
I get that making cars is hard, making the X is especially hard, etc etc. As a reservation holder, the excuses are getting old. The story moved from extended alpha/beta testing to hit a much quicker ramp than the S had, to at best a mirror image of the S ramp. (Few deliveries at a launch event, then extended delay with nearly no deliveries, then slow ramp over the course of months to get the Sigs out.)
Short-term, TSLA is not going to appreciate the failure to ramp. Supplier issues aren't an excuse: line them up, then launch. The reverse is not the way a well-run company operates.
It's another Tesla marketing joke.
Pretty clear to me that the 'launch' happened when it did to hit the Q3 deadline.
I get that making cars is hard, making the X is especially hard, etc etc. As a reservation holder, the excuses are getting old. The story moved from extended alpha/beta testing to hit a much quicker ramp than the S had, to at best a mirror image of the S ramp. (Few deliveries at a launch event, then extended delay with nearly no deliveries, then slow ramp over the course of months to get the Sigs out.)
Short-term, TSLA is not going to appreciate the failure to ramp. Supplier issues aren't an excuse: line them up, then launch. The reverse is not the way a well-run company operates.
I'm not a reservation holder, but I feel your pain. I remember watching the Model X reveal in early 2012 and actually believing Musk's statement that the Model X would delivered in late 2013. Or 2014 at the latest.
Short-term, I have to wonder if TSLA will fall because of the failure to ramp. Perhaps I frequent these forums too much, but I think almost no one believes that Tesla will hit 50,000 units this year, and we all know that the Model X ramp is just not happening. It seems to me that these rumors are baked into the stock, and thus the drop from over TSLA at $280 this summer to the $215 now.
As a shareholder I hope you're right. Given TMC tends to run a bit ahead of the news in general, I'm not sure the whole 'half of Sigs in mid-Jan or later' thing is well-known.
Then again, a small piece of me hopes we're reading too much into the Jan delivery comments (perhaps that it's a convoluted batching issue or something) and that Tesla really does intend to deliver most Sigs this year, as they recently stated via email to reservation holders.
Then again, a small piece of me hopes we're reading too much into the Jan delivery comments (perhaps that it's a convoluted batching issue or something) and that Tesla really does intend to deliver most Sigs this year, as they recently stated via email to reservation holders.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
My preliminary assessment of the situation is that all of this was entirely avoidable and due to unwise engineering decisions. Specifically, Model X appears to not be designed with ease-of-manufacturing in mind, and this is haunting the production ramp.
Elon himself admitted that Model X was one of the "hardest cars in the world" to build, with 1% of the components being "excruciating" to get produced correctly. The statements from the former forum member Eds indicated substantial problems with suppliers and a much slower ramp than the company had publicly stated in guidance. Model X seems to have turned into the engineering playground and now we will see the results. This is basically Jony Ive run amok without Steve Jobs as editor.
I'm expecting that Elon will face tough questions in the next conference call, and that it could get pretty unpleasant. This is baffling to me as an investor and infuriating from an engineering perspective. The one upside: it's almost a certainty that no other car company will be able or willing to produce a car as unique as Model X. At the 100k+ price band, that in of itself is a big selling point.
chickensevil
Active Member
On the plus side, maybe they are too preoccupied with the X and the 3 that the brand new S I ordered won't go obsolete in the next month? Eh? Eh?
Sorry, I got nothing, just hoping that we don't actually have delays on the Sig ramp.
Sorry, I got nothing, just hoping that we don't actually have delays on the Sig ramp.
What do you consider a delay? The internal TM target as of the reveal was all US Sigs by Dec 31st. From recent posts that deadline may not be met. I was hopeful or 1,200. guess I will be happy with 1/3-1/2 of that.
You know, I asked a Model X product specialist what the cooling capabilities of the X were for towing (since you generally need a beefed up cooling system when you tow) about 3 weeks ago. The answer was "great question, you should get an answer by end of year". In hindsight, seems that specs are still fluid.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
With all of the talk of the X delays, we haven't talked much of the increase in the S production. The line can produce both the S and the X.....isn't it reasonable to assume that they can still make the 55,000 number with just the S?
Things may have changed but IIRC line #1 was pumping out model S at a nice clip (1200?/week) and line #2 was being tweaked/used exclusively for the X. There are reports of no factory tours allowed in December so hopefully someone with a recent factory tour can comment...or better, a tour taker in November.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I think we're getting a bit carried away with this X delays narrative.
If someone orders a new model vehicle in late September delivery in 3 to 4 months is actually a reasonable timeframe. Last year it took me close to 3 months just to get a Model S. So even with a fully ramped up product it takes time to turn around orders.
Next, keep in mind that the launch even was primarily about opening the queue to place orders. It was a moment to go public with the features that reservationholders would soon be selecting.
So the sig reservations have now converted to orders, and most of these orders will have to wait 3 months or more for delivery. That's just the pace of things. Deal with it.
Shareholders do themselves a disservice to imagine that things really ought to proceed faster than they do.
If someone orders a new model vehicle in late September delivery in 3 to 4 months is actually a reasonable timeframe. Last year it took me close to 3 months just to get a Model S. So even with a fully ramped up product it takes time to turn around orders.
Next, keep in mind that the launch even was primarily about opening the queue to place orders. It was a moment to go public with the features that reservationholders would soon be selecting.
So the sig reservations have now converted to orders, and most of these orders will have to wait 3 months or more for delivery. That's just the pace of things. Deal with it.
Shareholders do themselves a disservice to imagine that things really ought to proceed faster than they do.
No, it isn't. The reason an S takes 2 months (not 3-4) to deliver, is due to the backlog of orders to work through first. No such backlog for the very first X configured and ordered. If Tesla was really ready to produce, it would have started production right the first week of october with a delivery date of oct 15th. Tesla Motors simply wasn't (and still seems) not ready to produce the X.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
If Tesla can't use line 2 for MS production is there any reason they can't use the workers from line 2, working extra shifts on line 1, to produce MS's?
How will the market react if they hit 50k MS production and only produce 30-500 MX?
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Well, most people are relying on what Elon said about X ramp that it will be steep compared to the S ramp. The Q2 letter even suggests number around 800/week X production exiting 2015. Now, if first 6 cars are delivered on 29th September, and the report of VINs 600+ delivery in January, math doesn't add up. Obvious outcome is that X ramp is not as fast as what is publicly disclosed.
My opinion...and don't put any hard earned money on my opinion.....If that is exactly what EM guides for Nov 3, the market will see that as 'neutral'. Now what happens to TSLA at that time depends on what happens in the next week. If we stay in a tight trading range up to Nov 3 ( $210-220) then we see a market move of 2-3% up or down.
I believe we are, and will continue to be in a TSLA negative stage, for the remainder of the year. Certainly macro events and some large concrete positive catalyst(s) are possible. I have paired down my TSLA exposure to core shares and a couple June 16 and j17 calls (range 220-250). I am still waiting to commit any more funds to TSLA until we start seeing concrete progress and not more 'Musk talk'.
I deeply respect EM and TM but we need...my old adage: More steak, less sizzle. Waiting for the 'steak' may have me miss what some here call the TSLA train. Iwill happily sit in the second car or even third car as the train leaves the station. Just my opinion...Again, make your own judgments on deployment of hard earned money....only you have the joy of being right or disappointment of being wrong.
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