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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
With low volume it should be relatively easy to push the price down. Why do you think that won't happen?
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
To all who choose to post in this thread:
The vast majority of people who regularly participate in this thread welcome both bull and bear arguments. Most (including myself) want to turn over every pebble to see the possible downside to TSLA as an investment, and seriously consider any bear case presented. If anyone insinuates that the company is lying, however, they should be prepared to be lambasted unless they have credible facts to back up their claim. If they suggest nefarious activity that would run counter to shareholders' best interests, such as intentionally slowing production of their only product, then they will be ridiculed unless there is demonstrable proof that such activity is occurring.
To those (few) unabashed bulls who can't stomach any possible bear arguments, realize that no company is perfect, and Tesla has their flaws. We on this forum need both sides of the story. 2015 showed that the only true bear argument that has had any truth behind it (lack of demand, serious competition, etc) has been overvaluation.
Bring on 2016!
jesselivenomore
Member
Skepticism, balance, and even negativity are all welcome. But only accompanied with truth and facts. Or heck, even opinion.
But when people want to spread fantasy and lies in the name of balance, and pass it off as fact, well heck, that's fine too. But don't blame us for calling them out for it.
But when people want to spread fantasy and lies in the name of balance, and pass it off as fact, well heck, that's fine too. But don't blame us for calling them out for it.
jesselivenomore
Member
Tesla Model S Was Worlds Best-Selling Electric Car In November
These are estimates for November and insideevs even cautions that they may be underestimating deliveries by 1500-2k. With that said, we can start piecing together the delivery number given other information we know.
5377 nov(model s)
42091 jan-nov(model s + x)
Knowing that deliveries ramp up the last month of the quarter, we can set a minimum delivery for Dec at 5377.(only model s)
In addition, we know of some data points that have increased for sure compared to Nov.
Denmark is at 1119 as of 12/28, compared with 525 in Nov. An addition of 594.
Norway is at 312 as of 12/26, compared with 225 in Nov. An addition of 87.
Add these numbers up, and you have a minimum in Dec of 5377+594+87= 6058.
Add this back to the total and we get 42091+6058= 48149.
This however is not the 2015 total, as we know deliveries in the last month of the quarter(Dec) is usually much higher than the previous months. This number is just what we know to be the minimum(assuming insideevs numbers are accurate). This number does not include any incremental increase in the US from Nov to Dec. It does not include any increase in China from Nov to Dec. It does not include any increase in Europe from Nov to Dec, outside of Denmark and Norway. It also does not include any Model X deliveries in Dec.
To make the bottom end of guidance, we need the increases from Nov to Dec in all those regions to = 1851. To make the top end = 3851.
Those numbers seem quite doable. Dec US deliveries alone could be close to 5k, which would be a 2k increase from Nov.
Also note the insideev disclaimer, that their numbers could be underestimating Jan-Nov deliveries by 1500-2000, which I have not accounted for at all.
These are estimates for November and insideevs even cautions that they may be underestimating deliveries by 1500-2k. With that said, we can start piecing together the delivery number given other information we know.
5377 nov(model s)
42091 jan-nov(model s + x)
Knowing that deliveries ramp up the last month of the quarter, we can set a minimum delivery for Dec at 5377.(only model s)
In addition, we know of some data points that have increased for sure compared to Nov.
Denmark is at 1119 as of 12/28, compared with 525 in Nov. An addition of 594.
Norway is at 312 as of 12/26, compared with 225 in Nov. An addition of 87.
Add these numbers up, and you have a minimum in Dec of 5377+594+87= 6058.
Add this back to the total and we get 42091+6058= 48149.
This however is not the 2015 total, as we know deliveries in the last month of the quarter(Dec) is usually much higher than the previous months. This number is just what we know to be the minimum(assuming insideevs numbers are accurate). This number does not include any incremental increase in the US from Nov to Dec. It does not include any increase in China from Nov to Dec. It does not include any increase in Europe from Nov to Dec, outside of Denmark and Norway. It also does not include any Model X deliveries in Dec.
To make the bottom end of guidance, we need the increases from Nov to Dec in all those regions to = 1851. To make the top end = 3851.
Those numbers seem quite doable. Dec US deliveries alone could be close to 5k, which would be a 2k increase from Nov.
Also note the insideev disclaimer, that their numbers could be underestimating Jan-Nov deliveries by 1500-2000, which I have not accounted for at all.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Not sure where you think you're seeing that but it's certainly not on this forum. When it does happen it's usually called out, just as irrational FUD is called out.
Please don't refrain from posting in 2016, I and many others rely on your posts for a bit of rationality and limit setting, this thread would be worse for your absence.
Agree, Who is cheerleading anything?
Again a non factual projection.
though we are certainly happy when good things happen.
If we're piecing together thoughts, Tesla stated at Q3 that they had produced 2,000 more Model S' than delivered - jut as reasonable to add that to the total as the Denmark and Norway deltas.
+1 I learn a lot from you all - and personally appreciate and respect maoing's insight (and grace in persevering to be understood - English is a horribly oddly innuendo'd thing, and all of us native speakers are too accustomed to reading between the lines).
In 2016, maybe we can all resolve to make the conversation more forgiving and the moderator's job easier by reading our replies to do a courtesy-check before posting to make sure that we're addressing the issue, not the person? (or ignoring both if a troll is going wild, just follow Elsa's advice and "let it go" (and yes, this is a test, will a Disney movie reference blast this into off-topic snippiness?))
Seriously though - happy new year to everyone! Thanks for all the advice and information over 2015, I am quite sure I won't be getting into puts or calls - I'm old-fashioned with my money (my gambling urges have found a happy home in the CXC raffle), but I am (I hope) learning to use max-pain to time my buys to pick up stock when the market is manipulating it to be cheaper.
Scott Ales
Member
Nice moves this morning!
I would like to take a moment to thank everyone who contributes to this forum. As in life, there will always be those who could be a bit more constructive, I try not to get too wound up about those folks and just let it slide. I feel the Mods here do a terrific job with the content. Thanks Mods!
I also appreciate the very detailed analysis that so many take the time to research and provide. There is a serious amount of time going into the material posted here for both sides, bull and bear. Please keep it coming!
Personally, as a 53 year old life long entrepreneur, I am most interested in investing for our world's future. In any positive capacity I am able to. I'm not willing to climb over bodies to make that happen. With our only child heading off the college this coming fall my wife and I are mapping out our plans and look forward to the next phase of our lives. A primary goal we both have is to be as independent from fossil fuel use as possible. I welcome competitors to Tesla and very much appreciate the new entrants. And make no mistake, no short (Chanos / Lutz) can ever take away from Tesla the credit due. Just for a moment, imagine our world without Tesla!
I consider it my daily responsibility to offer or provide as much information about this movement to any and all I come in contact with. And I enjoy that process immensely! Just last night we took our neighbors for a ride in the 90D and showed them AutoPilot. What's not fun about that?! Even if Tesla were to become insolvent technically, the ball is rolling and will not be stopped this time, (Who Killed the Electric Car"). The entire Tesla effort is a completed success even if the company went away tomorrow. The only thing we're really engaged in here is "Timing". It's basically like jumping out of a plane. It's not if you're going to hit the ground, it's when and how hard will it be! That's how I view the future of at least oil and possibly other fossil fuels.
Our goal for the next 5 years is to live in a newly constructed home that requires little or zero maintenance, stone - steel - glass - copper, is completely off the grid but right in plain urban sight, use ZERO fossil fuel personally, and convert or inspire as many people I come into contact with to pursue that same goal. You guys and gals can figure out the math, equations and specifics, it's beyond me but I need your data! So keep it coming and I'll try to live it out.
The most motivating thing my entire life has been when someone says to me, "You Can't do That!"
The most enjoyable and satisfying thing has been to be a part of "Doing It!"
Have a great 2016 and thanks again for allowing me to participate. Cheers!
I would like to take a moment to thank everyone who contributes to this forum. As in life, there will always be those who could be a bit more constructive, I try not to get too wound up about those folks and just let it slide. I feel the Mods here do a terrific job with the content. Thanks Mods!
I also appreciate the very detailed analysis that so many take the time to research and provide. There is a serious amount of time going into the material posted here for both sides, bull and bear. Please keep it coming!
Personally, as a 53 year old life long entrepreneur, I am most interested in investing for our world's future. In any positive capacity I am able to. I'm not willing to climb over bodies to make that happen. With our only child heading off the college this coming fall my wife and I are mapping out our plans and look forward to the next phase of our lives. A primary goal we both have is to be as independent from fossil fuel use as possible. I welcome competitors to Tesla and very much appreciate the new entrants. And make no mistake, no short (Chanos / Lutz) can ever take away from Tesla the credit due. Just for a moment, imagine our world without Tesla!
I consider it my daily responsibility to offer or provide as much information about this movement to any and all I come in contact with. And I enjoy that process immensely! Just last night we took our neighbors for a ride in the 90D and showed them AutoPilot. What's not fun about that?! Even if Tesla were to become insolvent technically, the ball is rolling and will not be stopped this time, (Who Killed the Electric Car"). The entire Tesla effort is a completed success even if the company went away tomorrow. The only thing we're really engaged in here is "Timing". It's basically like jumping out of a plane. It's not if you're going to hit the ground, it's when and how hard will it be! That's how I view the future of at least oil and possibly other fossil fuels.
Our goal for the next 5 years is to live in a newly constructed home that requires little or zero maintenance, stone - steel - glass - copper, is completely off the grid but right in plain urban sight, use ZERO fossil fuel personally, and convert or inspire as many people I come into contact with to pursue that same goal. You guys and gals can figure out the math, equations and specifics, it's beyond me but I need your data! So keep it coming and I'll try to live it out.
The most motivating thing my entire life has been when someone says to me, "You Can't do That!"
The most enjoyable and satisfying thing has been to be a part of "Doing It!"
Have a great 2016 and thanks again for allowing me to participate. Cheers!
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Thank you for your contribution. US young entrepreneurs will continue on the next push.
Krugerrand
Meow
And that right there is why you are often given a hard time.
No that's not what was proven. What stock price action proves is that the market a) sometimes misinterprets data, b) sometimes gets it right, c) sometimes is manipulated by bots and others, d) sometimes gets ahead of itself, e) sometimes is behind reality, f) can't always be predicted - but some love to think it can, g) is sometimes affected by macro events, and h) sometimes not affected by macro events. I've probably missed a few in there, but it's quite certain TSLA price action has nothing to do with positive views being wrong.
That is incorrect. People here have an intolerance for unsubstantiated FUD. If you can back your bear case up with factual data, people will listen and be appreciative. If you've provided that factual data and aren't being treated properly (respectfully), then it's more than likely the way you present the data that is offensive such as the statement I pointed out to you.
with the reports on the deliveries, CR report, EOY noise, i dont think its going to push to max pain. yesterday pretty much killed those chances if you ask me.
I agree we won't make it back to 'max pain'..but if the volume is low there will be pressure to push more towards $235 than $245. I will be re buying Jan calls if we approach $235.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
The price action of the past 2 days makes it look like max pain is 240, even though it's not.
Krugerrand
Meow
That would be an example of positive views being wrong...err, wait...maybe that's an example of negative views being wrong? :tongue:
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