-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
- Status
Keep in mind: "Please note the open interest is updated daily prior to the market open. It is not updated intra-day."
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
This seems a fair observation + question to bring up in the context.
I don't think you are being "irrational" or speaking from "fantasy" for posting this. And reading it three times, I don't sense disrespect or any desire to shut anyone out of the discussion!
Much less does it deserve (instead of a straight, respectful answer) to be classed as intolerance and the response to be a threat to leave the discussion.
I lurk here for the valuable and reasoned discussion amongst investors with MUCH more experience than I have. It's been great reading thru 2015.
I am not qualified to dissect technicals, but am compelled to point out passive-aggression as being as counter-productive as bullying.
Last edited:
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
jesselivenomore
Member
Continuing to parrot the "demand constrained" fallacy is not only fantasy, it is downright deceptive, especially in the face of facts crashing down upon that argument.
Would you please let this go?
Most of the thread wants mao here and disagrees with you. This may be the wrong past to quote, but your last response to mao suffers from the same issues you are pointing out. I'm not interested in getting in a snippiness battle with you or anyone, but we would all be well served if the other ongoing snippiness ended.
I think we are trading in the $240's because Tesla still hasn't shown that they can produce the Model X in volume. It is shipping somewhat, but not clearly in significant ongoing volume. The delivery numbers may provide some sway next week and the reaction might be violent, but the story going into the next quarter is still focused on Model X production. We might be seeing the Model S demand limits given the current footprint of galleries, service centers, and Superchargers. It's already a far higher level on a continuous run basis than pretty much anyone had expected, and 15-17k or maybe more Model S's a quarter is a heroic achievement.
The actual delivery number for the Model X in 2015 should be relatively unimportant compared to the expected ongoing rate of production and deliveries in 2016. Similarly, a small miss in the total numbers of deliveries in Q4 should be relatively unimportant if the Model X deliveries are in full swing and the factory's new expansion can be fully utilized. We'll have some color on that next week, and then we'll see how deliveries go through January as we hit ER. The excitement about Model 3 could be very interesting going into February and March. I would like to see some concrete or even best guess specs on the Bolt and other efforts by major automakers.
Happy New Year everyone, I hope 2016 is a good year for you.
The actual delivery number for the Model X in 2015 should be relatively unimportant compared to the expected ongoing rate of production and deliveries in 2016. Similarly, a small miss in the total numbers of deliveries in Q4 should be relatively unimportant if the Model X deliveries are in full swing and the factory's new expansion can be fully utilized. We'll have some color on that next week, and then we'll see how deliveries go through January as we hit ER. The excitement about Model 3 could be very interesting going into February and March. I would like to see some concrete or even best guess specs on the Bolt and other efforts by major automakers.
Happy New Year everyone, I hope 2016 is a good year for you.
I think we get bolt specs at CES or at least that's what I read at some point. I know faraday future has a presser scheduled too. I too am interested in how they look, I'm curious what performance gap will exist as is something of a proxy for tesla's performance lead.
I don't think the bolt will have much if any effect on model 3 numbers though. For one, they won't be in huge volume due to battery supply constraints, and secondly go talk to a millennial and ask what brand of car they wish they had. Tesla has won that segment over, Chevy, well, not so much.
Nice summary, Techmaven. The one point I might disagree upon is the effect of a small miss in delivery numbers for Q4. We've seen about a 10 point rise since Trip Chowdhry made his 18,300 vehicles deliveries prediction, and I suspect we'd lose at least that much value if Tesla falls short of Q4 delivery goals. The year 2016 does indeed look full of promise, and I agree that raising the Model X production numbers while addressing the inevitable teething problems of introducing a new vehicle will be the big challenge in the short run.
- - - Updated - - -
A New Years Wish
For 2016, I hope to see TSLA fly to the moon in value. Flying to Mars will have to wait for a future year and I'm okay with that.
I also hope to see some of the friction disappear betwen people with opposing views. The biggest suggestion I can make is to speak with a tone of respect to someone else who is a serious investor, whether you agree or not with their position. Realize that labels such as "cheerleader" are just as defamatory as "FUD monger". It doesn't matter who started the fight. The year 2016 is a new beginning, and communicating in a civil manner is the name of the game. The second requirement is to back up claims you make with evidence or a chain of logic. Nobody on this forum (other than Causalian) is considered clairvoyant. Back up what you say.
Last edited:
jesselivenomore
Member
It seems the issues re: Model X currently isn't so much production(seems to be ramping up according to multiple sources) but rather the actual deliveries. Most Model Xs seemed to be taking quite some time at SCs, for quality check? The slow delivery ramp may just be initial cautiousness to make sure quality is consistent before they break open the dam on deliveries.
In the end what is most important, even more than the ramp in deliveries, is initial impressions/reviews and simply is the Model X any good??? I see very little discussion of that in this thread but that will be the single biggest driver for share price in the medium term. We know Tesla has the ability to ramp deliveries, they've proven that in the past. Sooner or later it will get done. But if the Model X is as good as some people seem to think it is, it will be validation of Tesla Motors going from a company that made a great car, to a great company who makes great cars. That is paramount.
sundaymorning
Active Member
With Tesla selling approximately 50k MS for 2015, anyone who ignores this fact and wishes to trumpet up demand issues deserve to be chastised. I suppose having approx. 30k worth of MX reservations is also a demand problem. If this is your best bearish short term argument, I'll be happy to bet against it with my unchanged 100% long position. And yes for your info, it's still green at 40%.
No Max Pain close today for the market makers. Too many people wanted to own TSLA before the announcement next week. Day unfolded pretty much as I expected, with a pop and a slow fade. I took the opportunity to nab some lotto OTM calls at the close. We shall see what next week has in store for us. Happy New Year everyone!
I almost did too and then decided I had enough riding on the Q4 announcement to be very happy or very sad depending on the numbers and the market's interpretation of them. I bought a bunch of calls in the last 5 days for January 8th with some crazy money, willing to lose it all to get a moonshot. Liking the chances of liftoff. Good luck to all.
Thank you to all of you for your various insights and opinions this year. I measure my short-term trading success by my returns since previous times TSLA was at its current level. My TSLA funds in my IRA are up over 20% since early October and 45% since May when TSLA was around 240. The comments here informed my decisions of when to sell, when to buy, and my strategy for selling covered calls. Past performance does not promise future results, but with all of your help I hope to retire well! Good luck to all of you in 2016!
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Good to end the year on a upward trend! Happy New Year everyone, and see you all in the 2016 thread:biggrin:
chickensevil
Active Member
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Reading the Short-Term TSLA Price Movements thread has been a daily ritual since investing/purchasing my Tesla/TSLA and I want to thank you all for the fortune and entertainment that I have enjoyed as a result. You're all like an on-line family to me, and I wish you all a safe, healthy and prosperous 2016!! I'm certain we will see ATH's in the coming year, and hope to see you all make out like bandits with it :biggrin:
Looking forward to seeing you all in the 2016 thread.
Hau'oli makahiki hou!! Or, as you say in English,
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
Looking forward to seeing you all in the 2016 thread.
Hau'oli makahiki hou!! Or, as you say in English,
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked