Tesla Model S Was Worlds Best-Selling Electric Car In November
These are estimates for November and insideevs even cautions that they may be underestimating deliveries by 1500-2k. With that said, we can start piecing together the delivery number given other information we know.
5377 nov(model s)
42091 jan-nov(model s + x)
Knowing that deliveries ramp up the last month of the quarter, we can set a minimum delivery for Dec at 5377.(only model s)
In addition, we know of some data points that have increased for sure compared to Nov.
Denmark is at 1119 as of 12/28, compared with 525 in Nov. An addition of 594.
Norway is at 312 as of 12/26, compared with 225 in Nov. An addition of 87.
Add these numbers up, and you have a minimum in Dec of 5377+594+87= 6058.
Add this back to the total and we get 42091+6058=
48149.
This however is not the 2015 total, as we know deliveries in the last month of the quarter(Dec) is usually much higher than the previous months. This number is just what we know to be the minimum(assuming insideevs numbers are accurate). This number does not include any incremental increase in the US from Nov to Dec. It does not include any increase in China from Nov to Dec. It does not include any increase in Europe from Nov to Dec, outside of Denmark and Norway. It also does not include any Model X deliveries in Dec.
To make the bottom end of guidance, we need the increases from Nov to Dec in all those regions to = 1851. To make the top end = 3851.
Those numbers seem quite doable. Dec US deliveries alone could be close to 5k, which would be a 2k increase from Nov.
Also note the insideev disclaimer, that their numbers could be underestimating Jan-Nov deliveries by 1500-2000, which I have not accounted for at all.