Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[vgrinshpun]

Let's use some round numbers. A typical home use about 36 kWh per day while a car needs about 12 kWh per day. So in terms of average power, that's 1.5 kW for a home and 0.5 kW. But really it is kind of silly to talk about average power because demand varies through out the day and utility capacity is determined by peak demand not average demand. So if everyone had a home and a car which demand would determine the peak. Home use of power is very hard to shift--try running the AC at night and not at mid day. By contrast, car charging can happen at any time at discretion. Thus, people will mostly charge their cars when rates are low or to save on demand charges when household demand is low. So any economical charging of cars will atlctually reduce peak to average power ratios, not make them worse as the Toyota executive is suggesting. Surely the top engineer at Toyota understands this, so he must be engaging false and misleading claims.

The impact of battery storage on the grid whether stationary or automotive will smooth out power demand, not make it worse. Toyota should be ashamed of itself for suggesting otherwise.

Just to add some additional measure to the ratio of supercharging vs. home charging, in one of the shareholder's letters (don't remember exactly which quarter, but it was during the last year) TM included total quantity of miles that was traveled using energy from superchargers. There was also contemporaneous information on total miles driven by the fleet of MS on the roads. So back then I calculated the ratio of miles traveled on supercharged energy vs. total energy used by the fleet - it was around 8%.

 

[Bgarret]

Things are definitely slow this week. In the past this has made us vulnerable to short attacks but I am happy that this hasn't occurred. I'm not sure if they're holding off because they're worried about stationary storage and Q1 ER or if they're just reloading for another attack.

I think FluxCap's post comparing Tesla and Netflix is one of the main contributors to Tesla's price action and volume. There is less upward pressure as day traders and momentum investors jump over to ride the lightning that is NFLX and I think there are a lot of short-sellers that like to short the NFLX/TSLA/AMZN trifecta. If there is a lot of cross-over between shorts in NFLX and TSLA then they just got a hell of a bloody nose and may be "short" of capital for a while.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I think FluxCap's post comparing Tesla and Netflix is one of the main contributors to Tesla's price action and volume. There is less upward pressure as day traders and momentum investors jump over to ride the lightning that is NFLX and I think there are a lot of short-sellers that like to short the NFLX/TSLA/AMZN trifecta. If there is a lot of cross-over between shorts in NFLX and TSLA then they just got a hell of a bloody nose and may be "short" of capital for a while.

Maybe something in the air spooked them? Apologies for being off topic, but it is a slow morning...
SpaceX Launch You Up (Uptown Funk Parody) - YouTube

 

[v12 to 12v]

Given maximum pain at $200, unusually low volume last several days and overall market sentiment today, I think we are heading to sub-$200 today.

I calculated Max Pain as $202.50, but at the rate calls are being bought, we could be at $200 in a flash.

 

[FluxCap]

I'm surprised no one else posted this yet, but we are down this morning primarily because Bloomberg terminals crashed and disrupted markets. Unclear whether BBG was hacked or not.

Bloomberg itself is trumpeting a story about concerns over Greece "Grexit" and regulations on chinese stock market margin trading, but I think that is just fabricating a reason for the market swing down.

I'm not ruling out this guy:

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

TSLA holding up nicely today in comparison to the indexes. Impressed. If I had more funds I would buy buy buy.

 

[FluxCap]

What was that massive spike up just now?

 

[jbdoom]

I'm thinking it was this news out of Panasonic, don't know for sure though. Nikkei earnings preview: Panasonic set to report 70% jump in fiscal 2014 net profit- Nikkei Asian Review

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

An answer to prayer

 

[Bgarret]

What was that massive spike up just now?

Wasn't on a ton of volume (about 200-250k shares). I hope someone knows something they shouldn't. Be interesting to see what a couple million shares of buy volume would accomplish.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Wasn't on a ton of volume (about 200-250k shares). I hope someone knows something they shouldn't. Be interesting to see what a couple million shares of buy volume would accomplish.

This stock is one of the most volatile in the markets. With a 350 point pullback on the Dow, TSLA acting like nothing is happening. This is fantastic. I think your right. Somebody knows something. Otherwise it would be down 5 or 6 dollars.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Maybe something in the air spooked them? Apologies for being off topic, but it is a slow morning...
SpaceX Launch You Up (Uptown Funk Parody) - YouTube

This is a must see for all of us crazy TMCers. It's a little bit like watching Shrek and thinking "oh God, the children in the theater are missing half the jokes in this". I think you need our level of knowledge of all things Elon to truly appreciate this. BTW awsome job with the lyrics. These things are usually rather cringeworthy, but they did a really decent job here.

 

[dha]

Oh boy we just might manage to close green today.

Snagged some April 24 weekly 210's this morning for $1.59 a pop as I didn't feel we'd breach the 50 day MA. Looking very healthy ATM.

 

[AudubonB]

Today's buoyancy might have resulted from the actions of a good-sized investment fund taking advantage of a ************* day on Wall St to accumulate a new position (or enhance an existing one). 13Fs in a few weeks would confirm or repudiate that idea.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Oh boy we just might manage to close green today.

Snagged some April 24 weekly 210's this morning for $1.59 a pop as I didn't feel we'd breach the 50 day MA. Looking very healthy ATM.

+$0.09 according to my stocks app. Pretty amazing considering that the markets generally took a beating today. SCTY was down nearly 2%.

 

[doctoxics]

Noticed today about 1 pm edt that panasonic ADR turned positive after a loss earlier today, a loss yesterday on the Nikei, and todays overall downturn. About the same time, Tesla turned up before sellers drove it back down, but then up again to close just positive at the close. Looks like someone is buying Panasonic and Tesla together; could be a battery storage play and the upcoming energy storage anouncement.

 

[AlMc]

GM at least talking big: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/shanghai-gm-invest-16-billion-125328979.html

 

[atang]

GM at least talking big: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/shanghai-gm-invest-16-billion-125328979.html

Thanks for the article. Interesting that most of comments on the article are that GM is spending money outside of US/Detroit where GM just got saved from bankruptcy!

 

[jhm]

Thanks for the article. Interesting that most of comments on the article are that GM is spending money outside of US/Detroit where GM just got saved from bankruptcy!

Yeah, that seems to be pretty out of touch. GM builds cars in China to sell into the Chinese market. They've been doing that for quite awhile.

 

[FANGO]

I think I recall some sort of conversation, either here or in another thread, where people were talking either about Leafs or about Teslas, and either posters here or an analyst or something was talking about reducing residual values because of degradation, etc.

Anyhow, here's an article I just saw on FB: Nissan Leaf Drive Train is 25 Times More Reliable than Conventional Cars

Note the quote from Glass's, which is apparently the British version of KBB, which says: "They [Leafs] are good enough that, as an expert in this field, we will be looking again at our residual value forecasts for LEAF and probably revising them upwards."