Yes, that would follow, but SCTY may also be discounted due to uncertainty over the deal. Not to mention that both stocks are getting the crap shorted out of them right now, so that's a source of downward pressure on both.
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Yes, that would follow, but SCTY may also be discounted due to uncertainty over the deal. Not to mention that both stocks are getting the crap shorted out of them right now, so that's a source of downward pressure on both.
Yes, that's a great way to buy Tesla stock TODAY at a 20-30% discount. When SCTY gets converted, you'll get a nice 20-30% premium bump. Of course, you are gambling big time that the deal actually goes through...
Elon mentioned bridge loans from Tesla to SolarCity if necessary until the deal is finalized. One more indicator that smells like a bailout. But as far as the transaction to acquire SCTY, my understanding is that Tesla just prints more shares. No cash changes hands. But obviously, this means some dilution to TSLA, similar in size to the recent cap raise at 215 combined with Elon's 5M stock options exercise.
Yes, a bit of a gamble, but I'm fairly confident it goes through after hearing Elon on the call yesterday. He may not be voting directly but obviously has huge influence on the board and the major shareholders.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Yeah. Don't know. I wonder who is doing the securitization. Whether or not it is SCTY or a bank entity.
I own both tsla and scty, have done so since ipo and have added to my position over the years.
As historical reference, Elon has continuously said Solarcity is wildly undervalued. He said it on ipo day even suggesting it was worth well more then original offering of ~$18... And this was in December of 2012, over three years ago when Solarcity literally 1/7 the size it is today. Elon has also said it was possible Solarcity might become bigger then tesla(2014). Has also stated he bought hundreds of thousands of additional shares over the past year in the 40's (and lower) because they were undervalued.
Bottomline, scty is undervalued and Elon knows it. He is taking advantage of the situation and tsla benefits massively.
The problem is scty investors lose big time under the current deal terms. The stock is at a multi year low range and scty investors know this which reflects in he attitude toward the deal terms today.
doggusfluffy
Closed
Well there was ~26m volume on SCTY yesterday, ~8m today, both days slightly more than TSLA. I'm not sure what it means as the price action was pretty gradual.
My understanding of
I'm a bit gun-shy today because the broader markets are up, there's no short-selling allowed today, and TSLA is still slightly down. We could see the shorts try a dip once they're allowed to short-sell again. Anyone know when the short-sell restriction expires? There's often a bump upward on Monday mornings. I agree with you though that the release numbers in early July are likely to produce a lift.
Ask yourself this question: If I were shorting TSLA, would I close out my short position prior to July 1?
I'm a bit gun-shy today because the broader markets are up, there's no short-selling allowed today, and TSLA is still slightly down. We could see the shorts try a dip once they're allowed to short-sell again. Anyone know when the short-sell restriction expires? There's often a bump upward on Monday mornings. I agree with you though that the release numbers in early July are likely to produce a lift.
Ask yourself this question: If I were shorting TSLA, would I close out my short position prior to July 1?
Not an expert on these matters, but hasnt the market priced in the cost of a merger with solar city, be it by dilution. And that is reflected in the current price. When the cap raise was recently made public, TSLA went in the vicinity of 215 prior to execution.
I believe the offer from Tesla was 0.12X - 0.13X TSLA shares per SCTY share. With TSLA now at $195, doesn't this mean that the offer would be valuing the SCTY shares at $23.40 on the low end? This would be only a 7% premium to the current $21.80 the SCTY is at. If TSLA were to fall 7% more, wouldn't the offer be assigning no premium? Would they then revise the offer?
larmor
Active Member
From the consumer prospective regarding solar, i had investigated different options including sun run, solar city, and at the end, saw an ROI after 6 years, for an 8 kw solar system. Likely will move in that time frame, so not sure how solar helps me? Save 300 per month in lieu to 10 year finance or outright purchase?
I would hope better manufacturer means cheaper cost to consumer, as i'm also not sure how chasing solar with diminishing margins helps, just my 0.02 from a consumer perspective...
I would hope better manufacturer means cheaper cost to consumer, as i'm also not sure how chasing solar with diminishing margins helps, just my 0.02 from a consumer perspective...
For some (unequivocally good) news on GF: Tesla will add new section (5th) to the Gigafactory by December, Battery cell manufacturing equipment by July 20th
I am afraid this will be lost in the avalanche of TSLA buying SCTY discussion...
I am afraid this will be lost in the avalanche of TSLA buying SCTY discussion...
If only the TSLA/SCTY merger issue had its own thread
If the UFC is being sold for $4bln with annual revenues of less then a billion, how is it that Solarcity is a fair value at $2.7bln with $11bln dollars worth of revenue generating assets accumulating a 20% compounded growth rate? Maybe Solarcity should go private and sell then...
I see it as 8 shares of SCTY will turn into 1 share of TSLA regardless of the price of either stock. So buying SCTY at 21.84 is like buying TSLA at 174.72. As long as TSLA stays above that number, the trade should be profitable, eventually. Am I getting anything wrong here?
From my TD Ameritrade news feed for Tesla:
S&P GLOBAL RAISES VIEW ON SHARES OF TESLA TO HOLD FROM SELL
2:38 pm ET June 23, 2016 (S&P Capital IQ) Print
We raise our 12-month target by $15 to $200. With TSLA below our target, we elevate our opinion to hold. We increase our '18 EPS estimate by $1.00 to $6.75, and cut '16's in half to $0.70. Our target equates to a multiple of 30X our '18 EPS projection, and 56X our unchanged 2017 EPS estimate of $3.60, reflecting our expectation for rapid automotive profit growth. Our estimates due not include the possible buy of Solar City (SCTY 22 ***), a transaction we view negatively. We see a possible withdrawal of the offer, which we think would boost the volatile and risky shares.
S&P GLOBAL RAISES VIEW ON SHARES OF TESLA TO HOLD FROM SELL
2:38 pm ET June 23, 2016 (S&P Capital IQ) Print
We raise our 12-month target by $15 to $200. With TSLA below our target, we elevate our opinion to hold. We increase our '18 EPS estimate by $1.00 to $6.75, and cut '16's in half to $0.70. Our target equates to a multiple of 30X our '18 EPS projection, and 56X our unchanged 2017 EPS estimate of $3.60, reflecting our expectation for rapid automotive profit growth. Our estimates due not include the possible buy of Solar City (SCTY 22 ***), a transaction we view negatively. We see a possible withdrawal of the offer, which we think would boost the volatile and risky shares.
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