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everman
Member
SMP will go live around 5pm, assuming Pacific.
Tweets with replies by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter
Tweets with replies by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter
2virgule5
Member
Mike Smith
Active Member
@jhm I bought some SCTY shares at the open this morning after Elon's statement yesterday that he expected a supermajority vote in favor of the merger -- IMO he would not make this statement unless he had a high level of confidence that the deal would go through.
While we're killing time waiting for SMP2, I'd be curious to hear if anyone has a theory why rational SCTY shorts aren't closing out their SCTY positions at this point. Even if they had fundamental issues with the TSLA/SCTY combination it seems like a better deal to short TSLA instead since it is now priced at a premium to SCTY, and interest rates are less than half to boot. And if their main issue was with SCTY they might decide to just cut their losses or take their gains and get out.
Is it just a combination of stubbornness plus a hope of catching a break of some sort and getting a better price to exit before the merger? Or do they think Elon is mistaken about the merger going through. Something else?
Or will they just try to spin FUD around SMP2 and if that doesn't stick head for the hills?
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Why do you keep putting words in my mouth? They haven't completed their due diligence yet, and it's going to take 2-3 months after that to complete the deal. Do you think that they will complete the vote within about two weeks from today?
Maybe I should have clarified that I wasn't only referring to Fred's post. I lost my patience with all of the SCTY acquisition complaint posts, in which it was clear that they were not familiar with the contents of the calls.
Thanks!
Thanks again!
I didn't miss that. Just because you repeated it doesn't mean it's correct! The last time you posted almost the exact same thing in response to a post of mine you distorted or misunderstood me in exactly the same way. Only the last time you said under $200. When did I say that the SP would go back to under $200. You make up things to disagree with, then say that I'm wrong!
I believe that there could be multiple fundamental items accounting for the rise. There's also the squeeze the effects of which I am saying will be temporary. Please don't come back with a made up figure and use it to claim that you are correct and I'm wrong. I'm getting really tired of that.
Yay, 2am wake up call for us in Europe. I just hope I won't have to listen to techno music until 3am...
Once the deal is a go from shareholders it'll take a while to drag it through all the formalities. To be crystal clear, "complete" is when SCTY ticker disappears.
Looks to me best possible scenario is board approves, then say 2 weeks for a vote with a retroactive holding rule, then 2 months for regulatory approval.
jhm
Well-Known Member
SMP2 could be a much bigger boost for SCTY than TSLA. Just sayin'.
The only way I can explain short behavior at this point is they're hoping to cash in on a Q2 ER drop. So they need to keep SP down to avoid margin calls.
My view is that some part of the squeeze (40%, 60%, or 80%?) will be temporary. I think smart guys on Wall Street are miles ahead of us in plotting their game plans to maximize profits.
The only thing that is certain this time though, unlike previous short squeezes, is the timeline. That timeline hinges around effective date for voting on the merger deal. The short squeeze related SP peak has to be on the effective date. Agree?
If the effective date/range is in the future. Otherwise nothing happens. Like I said it might be in the interest of decision makers on this one to avoid any big SP moves so "nothing happens" looks to me like a realistic scenario.
The vertical run up above 229 started one minute after Elon's tweet about SMP2 being out about close of trading time today. We hit about 229.70 and then the profit-taking phase set in. Honestly, I don't see how people can say that anticipation of the SMP2 release has no significant effect on trading.
That said, I agree with vgrinshpun that the recall process could be an enormous catalyst and is certainly at work right now. My guess on the timing of the recalls by brokerages is that they recalled enough shares to adjust supply of TSLA short shares below demand and thereby engineer a shortage of short shares, which allowed them to significantly raise the interest rate charged for those short shares. The brokerages are playing this recall right now in order to maximize profits, which is not surprising at all.
My point is that the recall sets the stage for a squeeze, but longs need to join the buying to get things rolling at this stage of the game, and the SMP2 anticipation has served that purpose.
Edit: When we look back at anticipation for SMP2, we will likely surmise that the anticipation of the event was the real catalyst. For this reason, all of the tweets Elon has made, and all of the delays, have served a purpose. Now, let's see the SMP2 and enjoy the vision of Tesla's future.
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We should keep in mind though that Elon has deep dislike towards short sellers, I think he want to bury them 6 feet under. A shock treatment like this would likely ensure much less short interest in future. Once bitten twice shy.
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