How would we know if a theoretical million PowerPacks had been sold and installed though? Unlike the cars, which are consumer products sold to individuals that would feel inclined to post here, PowerPacks are sold to companies. Unlike a car purchase, I can't see a company manager creating a thread to show-off the powerpacks the company had just put in. Given this lack of visibility, how would we ever know that PowerPack installs had happened until they blindside us during an earnings release?
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dandurston
Member
Unless there's some evidence for this, it seems like wishful thinking to me.
The MS 60 is popular because it's cheaper. People who otherwise couldn't afford a MS/MX, are managing to scrape the funds together for a 60. By this same virtue, the options take rate is likely to be lower for the 60 than it is for the higher trim models.
I'm sure there are some people that just need a city car and have no need for they are option for loaded 60's, but I think the main premise of the 60 is to expand the Model S into more affordable market segments.
It seems there are press releases and other local news stories when powerpacks are being installed. Companies certainly like to advertise their green initiatives and anything with Tesla vaguely associated with it is 100% newsworthy it appears. I agree that once the novelty wears off (i.e., installations becoming so commonplace that they do not warrant press coverage of some sort) we are likely to be blindsided by big TE revenue once the powerpacks start shipping in numbers.
dandurston
Member
Most likely Tesla would guide for these installs, rather than blindsiding investors. It's true that actual installs are tough to track, but Tesla knows this information and they create the guidance.
PaulRocket
Member
In Q1 they delivered 25MWh which is about $12M in revenue. From what I saw at the Gigafactory I'm guessing they really ramped up production, Q2 might be 50MWh and Q3 100MWh. This is a guess but I counted about 30 Powerpacks and at least 150 Powerwalls at the event. Revenue will still be small but the ramp is definitely happening.
These same people scraping to get a 60 can later scrape together the money to turn it into a 75, too. If they don't, then Tesla will do it when they buy the 60 trade-in, flip the switch to a 75 and sell it as a CPO for more than a 60 would fetch.
All things considered: (i) production efficiencies lowering costs, (ii) adding a bunch of new buyers at a lower starting price point, (iii) possibility of people using "saved" money on more high margin options, (iv) chance that people will pay to upgrade to 75 later and (v) Tesla flipping the switch and selling it as a 75 CPO later -- the 60 will do great things for Tesla in the long run. It's true that margins might decline very slightly in the near term as some of these items ((iv) and (v)) take time to show up in the books, but it's a long term win IMO.
Actually I feel good about the drop today and yesterday. For me, I think it is a process of pricing in part of the bad news tomorrow. TSLA stock price has been acting rather bizzare over a month (armies of bad news) since the SCTY merger announcement in late June - rising steadily disregarding all those bad news. I think this might have to do with the SCTY merger. We saw over 58 millions shares changed hand within 5 trading days. After this, I personally think are the longs, old and new, are strong longs for the long term. So they know all the following bad news (suspension, AP death, etc.) are FUD and doesn't matter a bit in the long term. But as SP increases, momentum "weak" longs starts to get on board. And they are now simply taking profit, either . After they are gone after these two days. We are left with those strong longs and I don't think one Q's result would change their mind that much.
FYI,
IB is charging 67.26% to borrow $SCTY shares but alas has ZERO shares available
139k shares available of $TSLA at interest rate of 17.68%
IB is charging 67.26% to borrow $SCTY shares but alas has ZERO shares available
139k shares available of $TSLA at interest rate of 17.68%
racer26
Active Member
There are two main types of people who buy the 60 in my mind.
1) The type like you said, can't afford a 75, but really wants a Tesla so scrapes together to just barely make a 60 work -- very few options. That's OK though, because this buyer wouldn't buy a 75, so its wrong to look at this as a margin loss, it's a net margin gain.
2) The type who would've otherwise bought a 75, but instead decides to get a 60 so they can spend the $9k on options like AP. This is also OK, as the options are high-margin, and so the -$9k margin on the car will be mostly offset (and then fully recovered if they later upgrade to a 75.)
The problem type is the customer who would've bought a 75, but instead opts for a 60 and then DOESN'T use the 9k for options.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I certainly hope nobody was tricked to sell at the lows today. Hedge funds accumulating imho.
<__>
At least I kept it to a two dollar lost.
I'm in the process of emptying out my bank account in anticipation for the dip tomorrow morning. Today's movement shows that people really don't care about the state of TSLA right now and are still heavily betting on the future potential of TSLA
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gavine
Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast
The S60 is not a "city car". City cars, in my opinion, are the sub-100 mile cars like Leaf, i3, etc. The S60 is a 200 mile car with Supercharging so city car it definitely isn't.
I had a 60 without Supercharging and found that 200 miles is a lot.
Here is a real life example of someone downshifting from 70D to 60D. He saved $8.5K by downshifting to 60, but spent $5K of that saving on new options.Options like these have huge margins, as much as 70 to 80%.
Yep, and there's others as well in the 60 threads. I saw several dropping the 75 to a 60 and adding options.
Most people set an approximate budget and buy the best features they can for the price. For me, I had a budget and range was my top priority. So I bought the highest range thing available and filled the rest of the budget with options. If a 100 came out while I was ordering, I would have switched to the 100 and dropped an option or 2. Similar things apply to the 60/75. The 60 enables lower budget buyers to even enter the process and allows old 75 buyers the choice to make range a lower priority than other options and fill the budget with audio, premium etc. instead of unwanted extra battery size. More choice is ultimately better for buyers and the bottom line IMO.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I bet that turning on the autopilot for $2,500 has 100% profit margin.
racer26
Active Member
No betting about it. We know that every S/X produced these days has the hardware. Therefore every non-AP S/X is giving up the hardware cost in terms of margin, and those cars which turn AP on are gaining margin in the amount of $2500 - hardware.
Of course, that hardware cost has value to the company in terms of fleet learning capability, even on
non-AP enabled cars.
Huh 400%? Anyway, AP is a must have option. I don't think there are very many who originally ordered a 70D without it to later convert to a 60D with it. Unless someone goes over the reports to create credible statistics I am chalking extra gross margin due to 60-with options versus 70-without options in the column under -maybe-. Meanwhile the $4500 loss remains firmly in the -for sure- column.
You are forgetting a few important things in the maybe column - owner might upgrade to 75 and Tesla might upgrade to 75 on a CPO. The end result is that nearly all 60s will become 75s at some point. The only ones that won't are cars being traded in somewhere besides Tesla and ones that are totaled before the unlock occurs. Revenue delayed is not revenue denied. If there's a slight margin hit now then there will be an offsetting margin increase in the future. Meanwhile, more people get to buy a Tesla and spread the word to the rest of the world. No paid advertising means we need as many Teslas on the road as possible to increase awareness.
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