Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[cluster]

Inside EVs estimate for US July delivery numbers are out . 2150 S and 750 X. Not very impressive IMO but the first month in a new quarter has always been relatively slow in the US. What's curious to me is that they also estimated at least half of the S were 60 kWh. I'm wondering how they estimate this? By checking the emblem in the rear? But we also know the 60kWh is only software limited. So what will the emblem say if someone ordered a 75 kWh? Someone ordered a 60 and quickly upgraded it?

According their scorecard, it's actually the highest estimated US delivery number for MS in the first month of a quarter.

 

[racer26]

According their scorecard, it's actually the highest estimated US delivery number for MS in the first month of a quarter.

Seems a classic case of more data points doesn't actually equal more knowledge -- it just equals more questions

 

[tander]

Battening down the hatches a bit. Sold all call options last week and trading shares today.
Plenty of 'dry powder' now for post ERs (SCTY and TM).
Hope I am wrong on my suspicions of the stock direction.
Good luck to all longs..I still will be better off if I am wrong, short term, than right.

I'm thinking they'll either not try try to temper Q2 with lot's of Q3 info, or just save all the Q3 stuff and let Q2 hit in full strength. I'm guessing they'll go with option 1 though since they pretty much have to give a really optimistic forecast, although it could just come off as "sizzle" if they don't back it up with July deliveries.

 

[schonelucht]

Wow, isn't that scary bad?? The running assumption was that they would be producing and selling 1K/week each... Any insights by anyone into this?

S seems correct : 2150 for US, 750 for EU, 1100 for the rest of the world, adds up to 4000 for July. I think all those numbers are quite reasonable.

Model X production/delivery is trailing VIN assignment over a much longer period. So all the steady state VIN assignments at about an average of 800-900/week from June/July did not yet translate in an actual delivery. August is going to be significantly better.

 

[tander]

Ever the pragmatist, that Elon Musk.

Just as somebody is going to die on their way to Mars or on Mars. Life is a risk. Advancing technology, doing what's never been done before...all add risk. Mix in human fallibility, stupidity, bad luck etc... and additional risk is added. I grew up riding my bike all over town, often times without my hands on the handlebars, and certainly without a helmet. Every time had a level of risk. I knew it as a child, my parents certainly knew it.

If some people would rather exist in a bubble than live, then they should go do that and leave others to their own devices; destructive or otherwise.

It's sort of like which rate is faster, accidents caused by AP or accidents mitigated by it?

 

[W84M3]

Inside EVs estimate for US July delivery numbers are out . 2150 S and 750 X. Not very impressive IMO but the first month in a new quarter has always been relatively slow in the US. What's curious to me is that they also estimated at least half of the S were 60 kWh. I'm wondering how they estimate this? By checking the emblem in the rear? But we also know the 60kWh is only software limited. So what will the emblem say if someone ordered a 75 kWh? Someone ordered a 60 and quickly upgraded it?

Model X number seems way off IMO esp. with +90% of production to US.

 

[techmaven]

Model X number seems way off IMO esp. with +90% of production to US.

That may no longer be true.

 

[schonelucht]

Small unscientific cross check : the model X June delivery thread has 43 pages (May : 37 pages) while the July thread is only up to 27 pages. Some of us (hint hint) track the content of those threads and they confirm the trend line : self-reported deliveries in July were lower than before.

 

[SBenson]

S seems correct : 2150 for US, 750 for EU, 1100 for the rest of the world, adds up to 4000 for July. I think all those numbers are quite reasonable.

Model X production/delivery is trailing VIN assignment over a much longer period. So all the steady state VIN assignments at about an average of 800-900/week from June/July did not yet translate in an actual delivery. August is going to be significantly better.

Thanks for the insightful response. Do you see Tesla being able to make 24K deliveries in Q3?

 

[TMSE]

Small unscientific cross check : the model X June delivery thread has 43 pages (May : 37 pages) while the July thread is only up to 27 pages. Some of us (hint hint) track the content of those threads and they confirm the trend line : self-reported deliveries in July were lower than before.

Some of those pages were full of fit and finish issues, door issues etc., in June. I do not see such complaints anymore. Is that the reason July thread is shorter?

 

[PaulRocket]

Small unscientific cross check : the model X June delivery thread has 43 pages (May : 37 pages) while the July thread is only up to 27 pages. Some of us (hint hint) track the content of those threads and they confirm the trend line : self-reported deliveries in July were lower than before.

For US deliveries you can assume about 30 to 50 deliveries per one page in the Model X delivery thread. So June with 43 pages was 2150 Model X deliveries according to InsideEvs(50 deliveries per page), May with 37 pages and 1600 deliveries(43 deliveries per page) and now July having 27 pages and 750 deliveries.
30 to 50 deliveries per page is obviously a wide range but it gives a good hint at were the deliveries are standing.
Interestingly in August there should have been about 270 to 450 deliveries.

 

[pGo]

Is MS60 actually taking market share from what would otherwise be MS75's, though, is the important question

If you look at MS VIN assignments, even after MS60 introduction, it's flat at around 1000/week and not increasing. I think more people are going for MS60 than any other option. I am not sure if this is temporary but MS60 is a damn good value for the money and I expect it to keep going at this pace. This trend worries me about margins in general. We'll know more tomorrow.

 

[racer26]

That may no longer be true.

Another data point? I've been seeing steadily increasing numbers of MS on the road here in Toronto area for the last several years, but only just saw my first MX in the flesh last week. Living in Newmarket and working in Aurora (rich suburbs of Toronto) its now a rare day I go out on the road and *don't* see at least one MS.

 

[tander]

Small unscientific cross check : the model X June delivery thread has 43 pages (May : 37 pages) while the July thread is only up to 27 pages. Some of us (hint hint) track the content of those threads and they confirm the trend line : self-reported deliveries in July were lower than before.

That's sort of an interesting idea if you can do it. But I think it makes more sense to go at a basic level. We know those 5k from Q2 got delivered in July instead. We also know that they projected a run-rate of 2200 a week. Even if you are conservative say they had a week of downtime and were running at 2k a week for the remaining 3 and only delivered half of what got made, that still adds up to 8000 (5k+3K) which is what they need to meet guidance. Realistically it seems likely the number was more than 8k, possibly by quite a bit. The question is will they release that number tomorrow or save it for later down the line?

 

[racer26]

If you look at MS VIN assignments, even after MS60 introduction, it's flat at around 1000/week and not increasing. I think more people are going for MS60 than any other option. I am not sure if this is temporary but MS60 is a damn good value for the money and I expect it to keep going at this pace. This trend worries me about margins in general. We'll know more tomorrow.

Maybe. I've said before that I think we're reaching the end of being production-limited for MS. In 2015 MS had ~25% market share in its segment, and let's face it, the market for $100k cars has a pretty hard ceiling on it. Tesla projected 50% y/y growth, which would either suggest they expect to grow the $100k car market segment or steal share from their competitors to the tune of a total about 12.5%. Some portion of $100k car buyers are seriously brand loyal, so you're never going to steal all of the market share from Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Porsche, etc.

 

[schonelucht]

Thanks for the insightful response. Do you see Tesla being able to make 24K deliveries in Q3?

My current estimate is just below that number. 13k Model S and 8-11k Model X. I feel much more confident about the S than the X numbers obviously. If there is a possibility for a miss on their internal projections in Q3 I don't think they'll already adjust guidance tomorrow in the conference call.

 

[TMSE]

If you look at MS VIN assignments, even after MS60 introduction, it's flat at around 1000/week and not increasing. I think more people are going for MS60 than any other option. I am not sure if this is temporary but MS60 is a damn good value for the money and I expect it to keep going at this pace. This trend worries me about margins in general. We'll know more tomorrow.

If you look at MS VIN assignments, even after MS60 introduction, it's flat at around 1000/week and not increasing. I think more people are going for MS60 than any other option. I am not sure if this is temporary but MS60 is a damn good value for the money and I expect it to keep going at this pace. This trend worries me about margins in general. We'll know more tomorrow.

A lot of those who opt for MS60 Instead of MS70, spend most of that savings on additional options like premium interior, premium sound, panoramic roof, etc., which are high margin options. Revenue isn't really impacted much.

 

[MitchJi]

Maybe. I've said before that I think we're reaching the end of being production-limited for MS. In 2015 MS had ~25% market share in its segment, and let's face it, the market for $100k cars has a pretty hard ceiling on it. Tesla projected 50% y/y growth, which would either suggest they expect to grow the $100k car market segment or steal share from their competitors to the tune of a total about 12.5%. Some portion of $100k car buyers are seriously brand loyal, so you're never going to steal all of the market share from Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Porsche, etc.

MS-MX 60's are not $100k cars.

 

[racer26]

Another data point? I've been seeing steadily increasing numbers of MS on the road here in Toronto area for the last several years, but only just saw my first MX in the flesh last week. Living in Newmarket and working in Aurora (rich suburbs of Toronto) its now a rare day I go out on the road and *don't* see at least one MS.

For what its worth -- I've not seen a post-refresh S yet either. All of the ones I've seen/see regularly have the nosecone and not the Tesla stache.

 

[andrerodpt]

While I see something like "Late October Delivery" for any Model S/X (and we know that's the best case scenario) in Europe, I won't worry too much about demand. Even if demand is in the US is slowing, I bet other countries will happily absorb a lot of their production.