I have to imagine we get smacked down on the open, but after that I've got no idea.
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everman
Member
Just want to jump in with a quick prediction. I believe both the delivery requirement for 2H along with Elon's latest comments regarding autonomous driving (and how it is closer than anyone thinks) signal one thing: AP 2.0 comes this year, and in time to matter for deliveries in Q4.
Working that backwards, we get deliveries needing to take place at least all of December, perhaps into November. Work back 3-5 weeks order-to-delivery time and we get orders going online as early as the beginning of October. That leads us to a late September/early October "Unveil the D"-style (Oct 9, 2014) or Model X unveil (Sept. 29, 2015) event for AP2.0.
This puts a huge material event within 7-8 weeks from now. For the record, I think 100kwh comes at the same time.
Thoughts?
Working that backwards, we get deliveries needing to take place at least all of December, perhaps into November. Work back 3-5 weeks order-to-delivery time and we get orders going online as early as the beginning of October. That leads us to a late September/early October "Unveil the D"-style (Oct 9, 2014) or Model X unveil (Sept. 29, 2015) event for AP2.0.
This puts a huge material event within 7-8 weeks from now. For the record, I think 100kwh comes at the same time.
Thoughts?
Pretty interesting to see him expecting 21k deliveries in Q3 and therefore 29k in Q4. Not sure how that rhymes with the guided production rates which suggests a gentler slope up for example 23k/27k.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I've got no idea on the timing but:
It does sound like it's close.
They did talk about upcoming upgrades that would stimulate sales.
The required HW is probably cheap enough now to include with $65-$120k cars.
It sounded kind of muffled on the call, but I thought I heard 2k a week for 3Q and a goal of 3k a week for 4Q with a week or two of holiday. Anybody else hear that? I'm thinking that 21k is pretty conservative, and they'll also probably try to beat guidance not just meet it.
everman
Member
AP2.0 absolutely comes with new hardware sensor suite. I am anticipating eight cameras and eight radar, two for each direction, one serving redundancy for the other. I also think the hardware ships first, then software rolls out in the spring/early summer, leading in to Model 3 part 2 unveil.
That said, the hardware is what will drive the sales, not the software. Everyone will want to upgrade to the new hardware, knowing the software will be coming shortly. All he has to do is demo the software.
I agree that 100D comes out by the end of the year. AP 2.0 unlikely. Elon said the problem is software and needing a powerful computer to run it. I'm guessing 1-2 years away. I'm still waiting for the new 8.0 software that was supposed to be out "soon...."
Tesla already has a model that gets you almost 300 miles. I don't see 100d making any difference by adding 20 more miles. What is your thought behind 100d?
3Victoria
Active Member
8+8 camera and radar would be sweet, but I expect something less than that. Compute power might be limiting, as I am not sure they have had time to design the chips for that. AP2.0 may be using the present sensors in a new and enhanced way (3D point cloud from the radar integrated with the camera) +/- a second longer focus camera +/- a rear camera.
everman
Member
It's really just an assumption as a demand lever pull, working off wk05's image he pulled out of the software earlier this year. The assumption is that it begins to replace the 90's without the buyers knowing, then unveil the 100 to replace the 90, and all buyers in the last xx days can upgrade if they want!
everman
Member
I think they've been hard at work with Nvidia on processing hardware, such that they have something in the pipeline for this year. I may be wrong, it's just a feeling. Elon's "closer than anyone thinks" makes me think he's seen this thing working, and he is pulling in his own estimates from Dec'17 to Spring'17, with the hardware coming before that, Nov'16.
everman
Member
Yes, current cameras and radar quantities would just be bulked up, and require bigger processing hardware. I think they are coming up with some really novel ways to interpret data coming from existing sensors. Compute power is the only piece of hardware potentially remaining, and shouldn't be hard to come by if they've been working on that assumption for a while.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
"Almost 300" is not 300, and I think 300 is a significant marketing number. Besides, by your logic, why do a 90 when it was so close to an 85? Plus the "100" logo that wk found in the software makes me think it's coming sometime this year.
everman
Member
I agree. I think the 90 came just over a year ago (July 17, 2015), and Elon has said he expects ~ 5% - 10% capacity gains every year or so. This fall/winter lines up well with the 100kwh upgrade.
dc_h
Active Member
Nvidia and AMD have released major upgrades to their GPU's. Processing power should not be a limitation. Figuring out how to use that power...
I expected an opening smack-down today and took advantage of it. If it happens tomorrow, I'll do the same. The problem the shorts have is that they really can't sustain much of a smack-down any more because the smarter and more powerful shorts are getting out of TSLA and shares are not plentiful to borrow. Compounding the situation is that Tesla longs are bullish on the future and don't scare easily any more.
In order for an opening dip to work for the shorts, there needs to be some mild fear in the longs. I don't see it. If we had just run up the SP $20, there could be mild fear that we've reached a local high and TSLA is about to settle with profit-taking, but 220 has been a really strong support point and we've only risen about $4 today, so I don't see lots of concerns among the longs. More likely, longs are going to take advantage of a dip to acquire more, as some of us did during the opening dip today.
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