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Because the entire model X progress since 2013 was rolled out worse than most people's worst interpretation.
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First TM needs to prove what the prediction in beginning of Q1 is true compared to NOW, then people may trust their prediction for end of Q2.
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First TM needs to prove what the prediction in beginning of Q1 is true compared to NOW, then people may trust their prediction for end of Q2.
Ok. Not sure that has anything to do with the CEO talking about how the ramp is going and will progress over the next few months. Being late on a product is different than explaining how the actual production is going. I guess you are just a pessimistic dude.
So you did not mean to say "contradict" you meant to say that you do not trust Tesla's predictions based on previous history...
US production (finished QC of course) = US delivery . You don't need to nitpik the short pipe in transition as counter argument. For model X, Elon lost his credibility. The more you trust his words, the more you lost in TSLA.
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See my hightlights in RED "According to Musk, production of the Model X is continuing to accelerate ". It should echo the prediction on Jan. 3rd statement, but it contradicts to the fact now.
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Yes, I was pessimistic and skeptical about model X in entire 2015. But I wish I could had been even more pessimistic and skeptical. I remembered clearly two folks (Scott and Jesse) questioned my pessimism to me in 2015, now they both sold out their positions.
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See my hightlights in RED "According to Musk, production of the Model X is continuing to accelerate ". It should echo the prediction on Jan. 3rd statement, but it contradicts to the fact now.
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Yes, I was pessimistic and skeptical about model X in entire 2015. But I wish I could had been even more pessimistic and skeptical. I remembered clearly two folks (Scott and Jesse) questioned my pessimism to me in 2015, now they both sold out their positions.
Except it does not, especially so for Model X...
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Would you go through the trouble of including what specifically the red highlight is contradicting to?
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Would you bulls ( I am too) please let go off of maoing? This is not a competition in who's most bulish, and let's kill everyone different.
If I showed prudent sceptisicm like he does, my overall portfolio, everything, would not be at 25% of value last september! (yeah, 75% loss)
Yeah, maybe you all know Musk for 10 years, and that his timelines cannot be trusted, but there are some that don't, and pointing to potential issues is HEALTHY
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How much did you read from the last few days? Everything we know points that Model X are barely trickling, so if production is exponential, where the heck are they? And the whole theory of producing for exports, well, AFAIK, foreign markets didn't get to order their Model X yet...
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Elon apparently also said that production is continuing exponentially, though I can’t find that part on the video
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stealthology
Member
Alright guys, I've been thinking about this too much. Do you all believe Tesla will have a live video event where Elon will enveil the Model 3 prototype in late March? Elon's comments yesterday (granted, they came after 1 hour of sleep in the previous 48 hours) just confused me.
mmd
Active Member
Can you prove this, that there is a big gap between production and delivery of X? Otherwise, I suggest you write that it is your opinion, and may not be a fact. If you can prove this, it may help members view the current X delivery slowdown differently.
You may want to check the Jan 3 delivery note from Tesla.
Tesla Delivers 17,400 Vehicles in Q4 2015; Total 2015 Deliveries Were 50,580 - NASDAQ.com
What Maoing is saying is that if X ramp is "continuing to accelerate" from a rate of 238/week on Dec 31, as Elon said, we should have seen a lot more X by now. If you are suggesting that Tesla is exponentially growing production, continuing from ~238/week at end of Dec, then please show the proof that there are over a thousand Model X produced in January. The shreds of evidence we have so far from forum members seem to suggest very few X productions and deliveries in Jan. I cannot be sure how many X were really produced, but the stories so far seem to disprove any kind of acceleration, exponential or not.
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Skepticism is healthy. Discussion is healthy as well.
Skepticism can be fact based - and in such case it is important to know what *exactly* is the reason for it.
Another possibility is that it is based on intuition - in which case the facts do not matter - it is just gut feeling.
An account would be better off if owner can distinguish the two.
Btw, I am truly sympathetic with your feelings about your account. If it makes things better, I am in similar situation.
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From the article quoted in your post: "Model X deliveries are in line with the very early stages of our Model X production ramp as we prioritize quality above all else." Tesla is clearly has issues with quality of produced cars. Based on various posts in MX threads they seem to have chosen to address some of the issues at SC rather than factory. There seem to be produced MX at multiple SC, undergoing some work. So I do not see any contradiction between what Elon said and the information available on this Forum. This is one of the reasons that I said that production is NOT equal delivery, especially for MX.
Another reason is that deliveries are lagging 1 or 2 weeks behind production, even if the cars are not lingering at SC. For a changing production rate (either increasing or decreasing because of a newly found quality issue), as opposed to a steady production rate, current rate of deliveries is NOT the same as current rate of production.
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McMuggets
Member
I suppose many here are pretty high risk people... trading options and using leverage etc. Here I am thinking I was high risk just by buying a lot of common stock (not with leverage) in a company that is essentially still in it's later stages of being a "start up car company".
Maoing has provided healthy skepticism here for those of us who've been following this forum for a long time. He is not a perma-bear/bull, but rather just trying to be a pragmatic short-term trader. Anyhow, my two cents is that we should see the stock price stabilize here and move up to the lower 200's before earnings. Max pain should be around here and we might catch a small short covering event. After earnings report is anyone's guess. I would suggest exiting some of your positions if you are in the money by $200 price range, but still keeping some skin in the game that you can catch any sudden uptick after a surprise during the report or CC.
Even though I definitely do not agree with it... the few who had to exit their positions and take a huge loss did it for their own reasons. Options are a dangerous game with time limits and bigger swings. Those who are simply trading common stock but have a long-term view (such as holding onto the stock anyways if prices go down) need not worry. Everything Elon has said he would do he has eventually accomplished, albeit with a vastly different time-frame. This means eventually your shares will be worth what they deserve to be worth once said accomplishments occur. You just have to have the luxury of time and the liquidity of cash so you are never forced to exit positions at such low prices.
Maoing has provided healthy skepticism here for those of us who've been following this forum for a long time. He is not a perma-bear/bull, but rather just trying to be a pragmatic short-term trader. Anyhow, my two cents is that we should see the stock price stabilize here and move up to the lower 200's before earnings. Max pain should be around here and we might catch a small short covering event. After earnings report is anyone's guess. I would suggest exiting some of your positions if you are in the money by $200 price range, but still keeping some skin in the game that you can catch any sudden uptick after a surprise during the report or CC.
Even though I definitely do not agree with it... the few who had to exit their positions and take a huge loss did it for their own reasons. Options are a dangerous game with time limits and bigger swings. Those who are simply trading common stock but have a long-term view (such as holding onto the stock anyways if prices go down) need not worry. Everything Elon has said he would do he has eventually accomplished, albeit with a vastly different time-frame. This means eventually your shares will be worth what they deserve to be worth once said accomplishments occur. You just have to have the luxury of time and the liquidity of cash so you are never forced to exit positions at such low prices.
stealthology
Member
The production is usually shut down first week of January. The cadence of production at Tesla factory seem to be 48 weeks per year, 12 production weeks per quarter, with one week of no production per quarter.
So the total should be divided by 3, not 4 weeks.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Chinese New Year still one week away. The biggest concern is model X is a failed product which never able to get volume production in reliable way. But with more and more production X invited for config. It could be turn out just non fatal issues.
stealthology
Member
Elon said the production of X is 'accelerating' in Paris, he never said exponentially in the most recent video.
pvogel spoke with some production engineers a couple days ago and basically confirmed the line was running on Jan 4, which could indicate there was not a full week off in Jan. In fact, the line only runs 4 days per week with 2, 12 hour shifts. Before that, it was 5 days a week with 8 hrs shifts.
Let Tesla produce the S' it needs for WW orders now, while they produce small amounts of X's and work on (or wait on) whatever it is they need to in order to produce them in a quality manner; clearly it will increase soon. The time from VIN assignment to production was extremely short for the last batch of production (non-Sig) X's assigned VIN's. Musk noted in his Paris appearance (2 days ago) that all of them should have their X's by the end of September. He also noted they plan to produce the same amount of X's as S' by the 2nd quarter this year.
For the Feb 10 call, everyone already knows how many X's they produced/delivered. I don't think Wall St will be shocked with them delivering more cars in 2H 2016 just like last year. I don't think we should question their overall deliveries for 2016, especially since Elon made those remarks to BBC earlier this month inferring about 100k cars to be produced this year. That was like 2-3 weeks ago. Will a small delay in X, to ensure quality, really affect them if it doesn't really affect 2016's financial and delivery projections?
FCF+, stationary storage outlook, and the Model 3 reveal in March also hold some power.
pvogel spoke with some production engineers a couple days ago and basically confirmed the line was running on Jan 4, which could indicate there was not a full week off in Jan. In fact, the line only runs 4 days per week with 2, 12 hour shifts. Before that, it was 5 days a week with 8 hrs shifts.
Let Tesla produce the S' it needs for WW orders now, while they produce small amounts of X's and work on (or wait on) whatever it is they need to in order to produce them in a quality manner; clearly it will increase soon. The time from VIN assignment to production was extremely short for the last batch of production (non-Sig) X's assigned VIN's. Musk noted in his Paris appearance (2 days ago) that all of them should have their X's by the end of September. He also noted they plan to produce the same amount of X's as S' by the 2nd quarter this year.
For the Feb 10 call, everyone already knows how many X's they produced/delivered. I don't think Wall St will be shocked with them delivering more cars in 2H 2016 just like last year. I don't think we should question their overall deliveries for 2016, especially since Elon made those remarks to BBC earlier this month inferring about 100k cars to be produced this year. That was like 2-3 weeks ago. Will a small delay in X, to ensure quality, really affect them if it doesn't really affect 2016's financial and delivery projections?
FCF+, stationary storage outlook, and the Model 3 reveal in March also hold some power.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
A failed product which will never be able to get volume production in a reliable way? Really? I do agree with your assessment of the slow ramp up of production and the problems associated with that but a failed product, completely? What is your basis for saying that?
My two cents worth on this. As a shareholder I think anticipating the company is a great thing but occasionally it departs the bounds of sanity to seek to micro-second-guess the Management that exists to Manage the company. If anyone here really has insight based on piecing together fragmented public disclosures and analogies to how other auto makers go about doing things - how to manage a door or a windshield program in the best interests of the shareholders better than the management does, given that the company can basically head-hunt and retain any expert they want and provide them with unlimited access to insider information about the issue within a global framework of the (actual rather than assumed) priorities of the business, then that person should probably seek to market their services to the company.
Just like Model S. Model X is a legitimately a low to moderate volume production live public beta mule for a whole new traunch of advanced vehicle content that de-risks revisiting those technologies and production techniques in mass volume Gen III and Gen IV production. If they want to give themselves hell designing a new class of door and windshield requiring a completely new class of roll-cage design, this was where to do it. This is how they get to print hundreds of thousands if not millions of Model Y with confidence by revisiting their own design and engineering work and assessing their own accumulated field validation and service data. Same way as they can go ahead and install the AWD drive train in the X with direct experience accumulated on the S.
Unless this management team is to be considered generally incompetent, and I think that is a real stretch, I would posit that it is a fallacy to presume that the company and the interests of its long-term shareholders would be better served by doing anything differently. For example rushing a simplified Model X to market to prop up 2014/15 sales and short term share performance. The entire objective of this company is to execute towards serious mass production of compelling EVs and Model X exactly as it is serves that purpose to perfection. Model X is a truly credible halo vehicle and it serves to validate and de-risk mass production of vehicle content that takes the state of the art beyond anything that currently exists in the broad auto market. I do not believe the easy option was a better option here. The casualties of this program (timing vs PR expectations, probably $500M overspend on supply chain cock-ups and feature creep and two years of share-price suppression) are all temporary and genuinely trivial in the big picture. The benefits however are set in stone, a raised launch-pad elevating the whole future trajectory of what this company is capable of rolling out in mass production. This speaks to something that Musk is prone to explain and I think tends to go in one ear and out the other more than it should: "Close up an exponential progression can look like a linear progression" - or words to that effect.
We have on our management team a CEO that genuinely understands and can manage the nature of exponentials (compounding). That's a really, really good thing. Take the Model X ramp. Last ER the guy says that this is an exponential ramp and no major obstacles remaining. Now apparently he provides another data point: To reach parity with the Model S by Q2. If expectations are that you go from 238 Model X in Q4 '15 and draw a straight line out to 1000+ per week by nominally mid Q2 '16 then Model X is not on that track - but there is nothing awry, zero guidance fail, no design fail, no engineering fail, no supply chain fail, actually nothing wrong at all. Model X is not supposed to be on that track because it is not a linear ramp it is an exponential ramp. If there was nothing to carefully check and balance during a production ramp then they would not have guided for an exponential ramp, they would have simply switched on full production like a light switch. There is a contingency for contingencies within performance as guided..
"Bombshell??" Well yes I suppose so if just following guidance is to be considered completely incredible.
One of the more pleasant things about being an investor is that someone else, namely management and loads of staff, gets to do all the hard detail work (like figuring out how to make the product) for you, literally.
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