I believe that statement applies to any Silicon Valley based company. It's the norm.
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The X has been in production for 4 months. They have had problems. But for someone to insinuate it is a failure is pushing it beyond reality. They are fixing the problems that have been identified with the early Signatures and Founders. That is holding up release of produced cars and slowing current production. My car has been at the Springfield SC for a week now since it was delivered from the factory while they are updating it. I told them I want it perfect and don't want to bring it back in a few days. All of this slows down deliveries. Also Maoing keeps speaking as if all deliveries are reported on TMC and TM forums. My DS says they have delivered at least 5 X's from that SC so far. I have not seen any posts from any of these new owners so far. So does that make it a failure? I guess I will find out for sure later this week. ;-)
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
TL;DR skip this, fun math, not useful
I assume Elon was being CEO, not engineer in this case.
Assuming production increase is a weekly function as they have couple of day to work on the production line, and assuming they started producing beginning of September and worked through the end of the year, and assuming they were able to produce 100 vehicles a week first week of September, here is formula that describes weekly coefficient(k) of increase:
100*(k**13)=238, k=1.06897
Applying this to the end of the January
238*(1.06897**4)=310 vehicles per week at the end of January
What I described above is slowest case, and we know it's incorrect, as Tesla couldn't make 100 vehicles beginning of September, or they'd have more than 507
Let's see what happens with some more realistic numbers:
start mid-September, start 20 vehicles a week
20*(k**11)=238, k=1.2525
238*(1.2525**4)=585 vehicles per week at the end of January
or
start October, start with 10 vehicles a week
10*(k**9)=238, k=1.42217
238*(1.42217**4) = 973 vehicles per week at the end of January
Knowing what we know from above, at this point of exponential curve, growth should be observable, so I assume Elon is being a bit loose with the wording, honestly like good CEO should.
I made some rounding and more importantly, any stoppage would throw numbers out of wack, so I don't give much weight to this calculation. It's possible production capacity is growing exponentially, however, production itself doesn't appear to yet, or we would have noticed more cars and more VINs in customers hands.
As I said, this is useless, taking this seriously would be silly, like some of the "seeking alpha" bears arguments, as life never works 100% to the math. Just pointing that Elon uses exponential a bit more loose, and you can't use real exponential calculation to bet your hard earned money.
I'm afraid I just gave bears idea for another stupid article?
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roblab
Active Member
Yeah, he likes listing off "potential risks". He could list potential earthquakes, potential sea level rise, potential hacking of Tesla software, potential plane crash with 30 or so top Tesla engineers on board. I think he likes to say dramatic, sensational things so he can watch what the doob shorts will do. Ha Ha. Very funny. Not very realistic, though. I say that he's potentially a trouble maker. Maoing needs to get a little more real.
Of course, he points out things that could potentially happen, and there is (some) value in that. But there needs to be a grain of salt there somewhere, not just publishing for shock value.
Wow, again some of you with the doomsday comments on X and freaking out over 3. I do not see anything unexpected or any new cause for concern - in fact, the next ER is being de-risked day by day.
- Yes, the X was delayed by at least 1,5 years because it turned out , that 70% of the car will be brand new and pushing the edge of what's possible. Than again, this is Tesla, this approach is exactly what brings the wow-factor and turned Elon into a rock star. If you ever doubt them getting on top of complex technological challenges, just remember how they handled the fire/titanium shield situation. Tesla came out of it stronger than ever before - Elon has people at his disposal who normally pass time shooting rockets to Mars (kind of). Please name a single technological challenge Tesla hasn't managed to overcome yet in its history... right, that's what I thought.
- Take a deep breath. When Elon explained the X ramp during the last CC (i believe), he did say they will go for an exponential curve, hitting full production by the end of Q1, at times taking a breath, resolving early build issues, before cranking volumes higher. They took a pause after Founders, took another pause after the initial few hundred sigs. As per comments made by Tesla engineers during the recent X "open day", they expect Model X to make another leap in production volume very soon. Elon practically confirmed that in France, saying, they are sill expecting full volume end of Q1.
- Model 3 on track for end of March reveal. They will not go into details to keep a few surprises for competitors, but I fully expect them to show the car and start taking pre-orders. Things they could be holding back (trying to keep it realistic, so no fanboy wish list): final range (they should have a better idea on GF1 chemistry/prices by now), and the 3 may come fully autonomus ready (HW side).
- The CEO just invested big time into the company 2 weeks ahead of the ER. (I know, I know, a bit more complicated than that, but for the sake of simplicity...)
BTW, that last bit already got some decent press on Friday so I will not be shocked if that news pushes us over 200 on Monday.
- Yes, the X was delayed by at least 1,5 years because it turned out , that 70% of the car will be brand new and pushing the edge of what's possible. Than again, this is Tesla, this approach is exactly what brings the wow-factor and turned Elon into a rock star. If you ever doubt them getting on top of complex technological challenges, just remember how they handled the fire/titanium shield situation. Tesla came out of it stronger than ever before - Elon has people at his disposal who normally pass time shooting rockets to Mars (kind of). Please name a single technological challenge Tesla hasn't managed to overcome yet in its history... right, that's what I thought.
- Take a deep breath. When Elon explained the X ramp during the last CC (i believe), he did say they will go for an exponential curve, hitting full production by the end of Q1, at times taking a breath, resolving early build issues, before cranking volumes higher. They took a pause after Founders, took another pause after the initial few hundred sigs. As per comments made by Tesla engineers during the recent X "open day", they expect Model X to make another leap in production volume very soon. Elon practically confirmed that in France, saying, they are sill expecting full volume end of Q1.
- Model 3 on track for end of March reveal. They will not go into details to keep a few surprises for competitors, but I fully expect them to show the car and start taking pre-orders. Things they could be holding back (trying to keep it realistic, so no fanboy wish list): final range (they should have a better idea on GF1 chemistry/prices by now), and the 3 may come fully autonomus ready (HW side).
- The CEO just invested big time into the company 2 weeks ahead of the ER. (I know, I know, a bit more complicated than that, but for the sake of simplicity...)
BTW, that last bit already got some decent press on Friday so I will not be shocked if that news pushes us over 200 on Monday.
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
He hasn't said that, please re-read his statement. He was considering worst case scenario, and that is very prudent when you're in high risk stuff, as it will guide levels of risk you allow yourself.
I failed to see that ramp could be this slow, and got almost wiped out. We need voices like this to warn of potential problems, for many silent readers that may be somewhat influenced with what they read here.
I get 'no one should follow Internet advice', but this is place full of smart discussions, it has some credibility, and it could push someone on the fence one way or another. Maoing voice is the rare one that presents other side, and we shouldn't push him away
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
News of CEO buying stocks are positive short term, but I find that any rally from it gets faded. In 2008, it became an indicator that a company is panicking since there are so many ways to finance the lurchase now and the token amount they buy is usually immaterial. I will only take it seriously if it's significant compared to shares float and if it is using their own unencumbered money.
It's not so much the fact he invested (again) into his own company, but that he did it just before the ER. Do you think he would have done that if they were about to share some very disappointing news (unresolved issues with X, uncertain ramp, q1 FCF not hapening, very low prognosis for 2016 sales...)?
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When I heard Elon say that, I interpreted it as "the most difficult car to design and make production-ready" - he was talking about the headaches they were experiencing at the time. I don't believe he literally meant it would be "the most difficult car to build in mass quantities". I'm certain that once they iron out the supplier and production challenges (and as noted above, Tesla is very good at doing that), the MX will be no more difficult to build than the MS.
Yes. Buying before a disappointing ER to signal that the fundamentals are still sound.
Would not buying before a surprisingly good ER be insider trading?
This ER/CC will be very interesting because of ^^this^^. If the ER/CC contains some real progress (not just hopeful guidance) then this will be looked upon by the market as having been a bullish CEO. If not, it will be looked upon as a CEO 'pumping' the stock.
The next 10-14 days will be 'fun'.:wink:
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No.
Hard to know what will be received as a good and bad ER, what's expected vs. a surprise. Building 1,500/week - good or bad? $50M of Powerwall produced - good or bad? Incentive program coming back - good or bad? Since we know Elon is a buy and holder, it's certainly a good long term sign (wrong thread, I know).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I would take this seriously if it's not Morgan Stanley's money.
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Crystal ball = my personal life situation since it's linked to TSLA by correlation? It's crap. I am in the process of evicerating a huge "cancer" in my life. ETA June. I am not in India, so I cannot take another bath in the ganga river to cause a rally.
mmd
Active Member
Elon has some freedom in what to disclose. He may not answer the Model X ramp-up questions clearly (using real numbers), and give only vague answers like "making progress". Bulls will read that as real progress, bears will read that as problems, and we will all be at the same place we are now.
IMO, if the Q1 delivery guidance will be separated into X and S numbers, it will be a good sign that Model X issues are fixed.
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Aren't you concerned about the 40% Chinese stock market slump? China one year ago is not the same China now.
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