I don't think it is right to assume the delay is only because of the windshield and fwd. Big auto takes 5 years or more to develop and launch a new platform. For example, Mercedes E-class and BMW 5 series have been on 6-7 year cycle. So Tesla has been effective with Model X. I think the problems is just that they choose to launch it earlier to the public and promise a too ambitious launch date. The reports of problems in the Model X section has also been about other things than the doors like bad alignment.
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Be that as it may, even more reason to not complicate Model 3. They already have 2 'halo' cars. Later in the cycle, put 700hp in M3 and get third halo car without any hard to implement gadgets.
Better yer, for performance model 3, offer modular battery in 2 pieces. Owner or service center should be able to take off front battery within 30 minutes once they're experienced and have small set of holders/tools that can support weight of the battery. Why this feature? Well, performance enthusiast can shed 200 kg at will, and move center of weight rearward to get handling akin to 911! This is a big thing for enthusiasts.
So one can drive light/short travel version if one is inclined. Of course, completely impractical, but I'd be first one in line to buy such M3. You get monster performance and two different cars in one, as behavior would be very different.
Add bulged wheel arches! And small electrical mechanism so that car itself unlatches battery and drops it on its own on the flat floor! These are all things you can add later, and it feels to me engineering may not be too challenging. Probably wrong but what the heck.
Or make 3 piece battery, first and third pieces are small, and you can take them off, so you get handling akin to mid-engine car!!!
Ok, I'll stop dreaming, family is coming back home soon
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
And lose a good amount of battery power at the same time, not exactly what performance enthusiasts want. Not sure why you think making the battery pack more complicated would be a good way to make the Model 3 less complicated.
Short term, yes. Long term, no.
Short term won't be an issue in the master plan because the Model S sold wayyyyy more than they ever anticipated so quickly.
Eventually, every automaker out there will have a long-range, simple, electric luxury SUV. Probably with autonomy too if you go far enough down the line. The windshield and FWD have never been tried in production vehicles, it'll be really tough for others to replicate them.
The FWD can be considered a marketing expense. It's also going to be much easier to replicate on future SUV vehicles and possibly even pickup trucks, as it's confirmed going to be on the Model Y.
There were enough warning signs (in my opinion) to get out of short term trades, even ignoring the macro effects recently. I did with many of my short to medium term shares. I did buy back too early, but in the long term that doesn't matter--just means I'll hold onto those shares for 6-9 months instead of 2-4 months.
..because Model S sold wayyyyy more than they ever anticipated so quickly... for Model S *and* Model X combined
stealthology
Member
From Paris, yesterday (1/30/16):
Elon Talks European Factory and Superchargers at Tesla Paris - TESLARATI.com
Bombshell??
Elon Talks European Factory and Superchargers at Tesla Paris - TESLARATI.com
Bombshell??
This is somewhat ambiguous. A hyper optimistic view would be that factory will add 1200 MX to 1200 MS currently produced. A hyper pessimistic view would be that production of 1200 MS will be replaced with production of 1200 MX. Realistically, 800-1000 units/week of each would be great.
You beat me to it. He worded it VERY carefully. Hopefully the ER/CC will provide some real numbers.
I do hope that we have some type of *one more thing* at the CC...EX: Volvo partnering for SCs or Agreement in principle to build cars in China in 2017. WAG (wishful thinking)
EDIT: I don't know how much everyone here follows the TM forum..But it is closing for 48-72 hours tonight for 'maintenance': Speculation: Adding a section for discussing model3?? again WAG
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I think that things do not look that bad considering that in order to reach lower boundary of the average 1600-1800 units/week they need to ramp up MX to only 400 cars/week. I think that they will be there very soon. We all are very lucky that demand for MS remains strong and they have no trouble whatsoever to sell 1200 cars/week. This is an excellent base and they can afford a more measured (than originally projected) ramp up of MX.
I'd say it's close to a bombshell. Makes me feel a hell of a lot better about the x ramp. Whatever problems there are are apparently getting sorted in short order. More importantly, it's a preview to the conference call coming up. He will be able to speak about the x ramp confidently and will be reassuring to investors.
i have a feeling this thing is going to run up to earnings. I'm a major bull though, so grain of salt.
I'm guessing it will be a catalyst but not a bombshell... yet. That said, this is how bombshells land in our backyard. You're reading TMC investor's thread, hear something said over the weekend by Musk, and Tesla takes off on Monday morning. For this reason, those who have suffered with shares and calls this past month are set up to reap the benefits of a quick climb, when it happens.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
He's probably there to design the ASIC for their AI. Since each tape out costs several millions of dollars, it is not profitable unless it's for Model 3 when the chips production needed is 500 000+ or more. Expect some type of announcement from TSMC in the future for the automotive ASIC.
I'm afraid this would be misleading again. It contradicts to what we observed from model X forum.
You know, it's not required to interpret everything in the worst possible light. It's entirely possible for the ramp to accelerate while there's a temporary slowdown to fix bottlenecks.
I realize im guilty of interpreting things in a too positive light. The truth is probably somewhere between us.
How something that is observed *now* can contradict prediction of what will happen by the end of Q2?
Yuri_G
Member
Explain how deliveries = production. Also how the Model X forum knows more about the X ramp than Elon Musk.
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