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Thanks for the supporting, although I don't know where it will go. I almost sold at 218.90
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yep. I generally agree with your production assement. I also agree with "cars in transit" observation. Should be a "tail wind" benefit for tesla of at least 2,500 extra deliveries in Q3
I think 23k deliveries is a little optiministic for Q3. I think 21k is a little more realistic. Don't get me wrong, 23k would be huge. Likewise, under 20k would be an "epic fail"
I think demand is pretty balanced these days with their increased production levels. My sense is that the 2-year lease (available till Sep 15th) is going to push a bunch of fence-sitters into ordering. This includes clearing out some inventory/demo cars
What happened to your epic short squeeze that was going to propel TSLA to all times highs that you have been rambling on & on for the last month, giving up on that theory?
I want to caution on counting on any Q3 delivery tailwind from the transit pipeline. Assuming 4-5 weeks average transit time across all markets and average production of 2K units per week, under steady state the transit pipeline should have 8K to 10K cars. The only way Tesla could temporarily keep this number lower is by extreme batching of production to ensure that nearly all cars destined for overseas ar produced in first half of the quarter, with nearly all production in the second half of the quarter reserved for the NA. This patern worked when Tesla was producing about 1000K/week, but it led to extremely lop-sided deliveries within a quarter - very little delivered in first and second month of the quarter, with majority of cars delivered in the last month of the quarter. As they scaled up to 2K units per week, this delivery cadence is just not sustainable: can't have delivery personell sit and twitch their fingers for two month, and then work crazy hours during the last month of the quarter. It is not good for customer experience, for staff, nor the bottom line.
So if anything, I expect Tesla ADDING cars to the transit pipeline in Q3, rather then emptying it. The sign to watch for validation is delivery estimates for August. If they are significantly higher than in May, then Tesla is shifting from the extreme batching of the production described above to a more even (proportional to the rate of incoming orders) regional production allocation throughout the quarter. This would indicate that transit pipeline will grow in Q3, rather then shrink.
So if anything, I expect Tesla ADDING cars to the transit pipeline in Q3, rather then emptying it. The sign to watch for validation is delivery estimates for August. If they are significantly higher than in May, then Tesla is shifting from the extreme batching of the production described above to a more even (proportional to the rate of incoming orders) regional production allocation throughout the quarter. This would indicate that transit pipeline will grow in Q3, rather then shrink.
N5329K
Active Member
Perhaps it was a hypothesis (a guess that might turn out useful or full of beans) masquerading as a theory, (which has already proved useful, testable and predictive)?
Robin
Runarbt
Active Member
Wasnt this based on the SCTY vote and recalling of TSLA shares? This is now a couple of months away still..
Ha, you just can't resist - very valuable post - really well done...
The theory is just that - a theory. Life events will either confirm, or dispel. My theory, as I posted more than once, will materialize or not in Q4.
My apologies, but you just produced a garbage post.
You are welcome to add any data points, discussion or hard questioning of facts involved in my theory, but you need to refrain from personal attacks. It does not reflect well on you and is not allowed according to the rules of this Forum.
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dandurston
Member
Indeed.
Historically Tesla has gotten about 90% of produced cars to customers each quarter with 10% going to pipeline filling, showrooms etc. Last quarter they came up short of this (90% of 18.3k is 16.5k but they only delivered 14.4k) so when that bulge clears the pipeline we should expect a boost of +2.1k from Q2 cars.
This will - as usual - be offset by Q3 cars being added to the ever larger pipeline. For Q3 if we expect the normal 90% of produced cars being delivered, then about 2-3k will added to the pipe which largely negates the bulge. Still, I think considering both pipeline gains and losses is better than rolling this all into one.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Thx for this...
Honestly, I don't see tesla changing their geographic batching this year. For Model 3 after a while, sure... But not for 2016.
Case in point was Q2. Tesla, in announcing their delivery miss, made it very clear that production ramped hard in the last month of Q2 and made it impossible to get overseas cars on boats in time for end of Q2 delivery.
All indications from Tesla/Elon is that production is stable at ~2k/week and will ramp slowly through the end of 2016.
Tesla is chasing an aggressive target of 50k deliveries for 2H 2016. Clearly they'll need to use geo batching for Q4 and nearly all cars will be batched to be delivered by Dec 31st. U.S. Cars will be batched last and California deliveries will some of the last cars produced for year-end delivery. I doubt they'll change this tactic for Q3 either.
Thanks again for your caution.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Waiting for the absolute bottom to sell?
That would be "0" unless the Fed tries something akin to the negative interest rates of some countries by paying us to own their stock. The lengths "the only game in town" which people are using to avoid fiscal stimulus continues to amaze.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Perhaps. But boy oh boy have the short puts been a good trade for me so far.
Maybe there aren't enough people taking advantage of this...Have you looked at the prices they're selling for already?After all, this is the function that brokerages provide, and now your assumption is that all of them would lean on one side, I believe puts would explode in price to the point that brokers may turn around and sell them
This is a real possibility, but I think so far we haven't calculated this correctly. Several of the large institutions are clearly happy to sell, including Goldman Sachs, which has been selling. Several of the brokerages may be holding shares primarily for sale (as broker-dealers). Assuming that these institutions will hang on to their shares is *incorrect*. To figure how how many retail shares need to be bought back you need to separate these institutions out from the long-term-holders like mutual funds and pension funds, who are the ones who want to recall shares.
Ha, yeah, they might. That would be worrisome for the vote result.
I've seen your discussion on that point, and yet, I think this is more likely to happen than other alternatives. Or some combination of everything above
Perhaps. But boy oh boy have the short puts been a good trade for me so far.
Check.
Sort of. After setting the record date, and after the record date has pased, the company mails out the proxies, they have to arrive, they have to give people a week or two to send them back. Usually takes about a month, sometimes less. But companies are actually allowed to set record dates in the *past*.
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