I'm guessing the market makers want TSLA to close at least at 220, and the shorts want to show TSLA closing below 220. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 219.99 closing price.
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I'm guessing the market makers want TSLA to close at least at 220, and the shorts want to show TSLA closing below 220. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 219.99 closing price.
Shouldn't we be using 13 weeks in Q3? Tesla noted that Q4 would have two vacation weeks, meaning 11 weeks in Q4. To make their minimum guidance of 80,000 deliveries, Tesla would have to deliver 51,000 cars in Q3 and Q4, or 2,125 cars per week average. Even with 2,300 cars/week in Q3, the total is 25,300, leaving a minimum of 25,700 deliveries in Q3. We are more than half way through Q3. Tesla's visibility through Q4 should be high by now, yet we hear no lowering of the 80,000 2016 guidance.
I'm leaning towards the idea they are really pushing to get it done asap. If I remember right the verbiage is they are planning to "close" the deal in Q4, which I take to mean that the books and major personnel changes will pretty much be done by Q4. But that doesn't mean that the vote can't take place in Q3 with a past date of record, that might even be in their best interest because they could lock in ownership percentages without any big surprises.
I think it is in their interest to set a record date in the future, to give long-term holders a final chance to recall their stock from lending programs where they may be lent to voters who oppose the deal. I'm not sure whether TSLA and SCTY will actually do so, but I personally think it is in their interest.
If they want to give long-term holders a chance to recall their stock, they have to set a date no less than 4 days in the future (since settlement is typically 3 days), but preferably at least a full week in the future (since there are all kinds of allowances for failure to deliver of less than a week).
Personally my wild-ass guess is a week. But they have to get SEC approval of the proxy statement first. If everything goes fast, SEC approval could be before the end of September, the record date could be early October, and voting could be happening in late October, with the deal closing in early November (assuming the votes are in favor). If it doesn't go fast, the deal could close, perhaps, in late December instead. They've said they expect it to close in Q4, and they certainly have time for that.
@dandurston
I don't know if Model X demand is really that much in question? If I remember right they've just recently introduced the lower priced models which lends itself well to the soccer mom buyers in the US. And the X is pretty squarely aimed at China where demand will likely outpace US demand, which if I think they were just getting it into in Q3.
With regard to manufacturing capability, does anyone know if they are really at max output? Are they running 7 days a week? 2-3 shifts? They been pretty good about matching demand and supply, which I think sometimes gets confused with the actual demand and ability to supply.
I don't know if Model X demand is really that much in question? If I remember right they've just recently introduced the lower priced models which lends itself well to the soccer mom buyers in the US. And the X is pretty squarely aimed at China where demand will likely outpace US demand, which if I think they were just getting it into in Q3.
With regard to manufacturing capability, does anyone know if they are really at max output? Are they running 7 days a week? 2-3 shifts? They been pretty good about matching demand and supply, which I think sometimes gets confused with the actual demand and ability to supply.
That's a good point for putting the record date in the future. My guess is about the same with a week from the go shop end date and then the vote by or before the beginning of October. I wonder how long it will take them to actually get the books merged and most of the nitty gritty hammered out.
2,100 cars/week times 13 weeks equals 27,300 cars produced in Q3. Adding the 5,000 cars in transit from Q2 contributes to the 27,300 produced to give the total potential deliveries. Agreed that a substantial portion of 5,000 cars will likely still be in transit at the end of Q3. However, we know that Tesla sold essentially every car they owned in Q4 2015 so, theoretically, this could happen in Q3 2016 (but probably won't) meaning that theoretically they could deliver 32,300 cars in Q3 (even more if they sold every car they own). Just trying to estimate an upper bound. I think Tesla will aim for a minimum of 26,000 deliveries in Q3 to meet 2H guidance, knowing that they will be operating only 11 weeks in Q4. Demand might be the only reason they will not deliver 26,000 cars in Q3. I expect that they will make at least 26,000 cars even if they are unable to sell them by the end of September.
Jayjs20 has dispelled the curse that bothered him for a long time and sold his shares at 225. So he is just watching Friday last hour for fun and looking to opportunity to get in again. And I am holding the shares with fear. Sigh.
Wrong again bob. I was in at 223. 223 was a stronghold for a good amount of time, so I thought it would keep holding. How wrong I was.
If I was still out, it'd be 230 by now.
If I was still out, it'd be 230 by now.
Schwab just returned all the shares which I had lent out at their request. They only kept my shares for a few weeks. I am surprised since they were so eager to borrow them a few weeks ago. Maybe anecdotal evidence of short covering.
Incredulocious
LEAF → RAV4EV → Model 3 → Model Y
Ditto here. Both with my Schwab and Fidelity accounts. Also, SCTY lending rate is down to 7% now at Fidelity.
Freakin' oracle over here.
Hi Papafox,
you are exactly right. You are like a god. Now I kneel down in front you and beg yo to tell me the open price and close price of Monday? Thanks.
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Quesder, this was an easy one. We've seen so many times before when the SP closed one penny or two below the level that the shorts wanted to stay underneath. I'd be a wealthy man now if I could predict SP so closely most of the other times.
More convinced than I last week about what's up with Tesla.
1. The proposed merger conversion rate is ~.11 SolarCity for every 1 share of Tesla. I have no idea why journalists still don't understand that Tesla isn't buying SolarCity.
2. Tesla is stuck in a tight range until the merger is complete because Tesla's stock price is tied to SolarCity's stock price.
3. No institutional buyers are buying SolarCity because buying Tesla stock and convertible bonds accomplishes the same thing. Also, the yield on SolarCity bonds doesn't reflect the merger happening and in my view only reflects SolarCity as it exists today.
4. SolarCity has already begun to restructure for a merger with Tesla.
5. Elon has been surprisingly quiet lately. Something must be brewing.
6) It was revealed that Tesla has signed agreements with a few new companies in China. I suspect we'll hear more about China in the near future.
Side note: This might be significant for Tesla. This should be very good for a company like Tesla that requires a lot of aluminum. Right?
Two Top Chinese Aluminum Producers Have Different Crystal Balls
1. The proposed merger conversion rate is ~.11 SolarCity for every 1 share of Tesla. I have no idea why journalists still don't understand that Tesla isn't buying SolarCity.
2. Tesla is stuck in a tight range until the merger is complete because Tesla's stock price is tied to SolarCity's stock price.
3. No institutional buyers are buying SolarCity because buying Tesla stock and convertible bonds accomplishes the same thing. Also, the yield on SolarCity bonds doesn't reflect the merger happening and in my view only reflects SolarCity as it exists today.
4. SolarCity has already begun to restructure for a merger with Tesla.
5. Elon has been surprisingly quiet lately. Something must be brewing.
6) It was revealed that Tesla has signed agreements with a few new companies in China. I suspect we'll hear more about China in the near future.
Side note: This might be significant for Tesla. This should be very good for a company like Tesla that requires a lot of aluminum. Right?
Two Top Chinese Aluminum Producers Have Different Crystal Balls
Well that was disappointing - that drop right before 4:00pm is really not cool, MM algo bot traders. But your human programmers knew that already.
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