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Obviously they have discovered hydrogen in the world's oceans.
racer26
Active Member
As I stated yesterday, my gut is 26-28k deliveries in Q3 (in a greater scale range of 23-32k).
With all the demand levers they've been pulling, and the relatively few they have left to pull, Q3 needs to be big. If all the demand lever pulling only got them to around 23k, they're in trouble for Q4. We need 50k in H2 to make guidance, and I'm feeling like if we don't get at least 23k in Q3, there's no hope of making it.
EDIT: Expanded thought. All the demand levers being pulled rapid fire like this could be about trying to make Q3 a big quarter for pretty financials before they're completely swamped by M3 CapEx.
With all the demand levers they've been pulling, and the relatively few they have left to pull, Q3 needs to be big. If all the demand lever pulling only got them to around 23k, they're in trouble for Q4. We need 50k in H2 to make guidance, and I'm feeling like if we don't get at least 23k in Q3, there's no hope of making it.
EDIT: Expanded thought. All the demand levers being pulled rapid fire like this could be about trying to make Q3 a big quarter for pretty financials before they're completely swamped by M3 CapEx.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
IMO they can easily generate demand by announcing that the current MS-MX either include the HW required for full autonomy , or can be upgraded to include the HW.
Most of us have been here before with a stock price drop that feeds upon itself. Because the SP is declining, emboldened shorts are jumping in (as detailed by vgrinshpun's posts about Fidelity short shares available). The SP drop causes some longs to sell, longs who are either too weak to stand the volatility of TSLA or longs who plan to buy back in "when we bottom out". The good news is that availalbe shares to short will be dried up soon and the energy behind the drop disappears. When we bottom out (and that might not be far from here), there's quite a bit of upside potential as this share sale takes place only about a month from probable good news (Q3 delivery numbers) and both shorts and longs will be buying in anticipation for the Oct 1-3 numbers.
Smart money tends to look for opportunities where a good stock gets driven down in price for insignificant reasons.
Smart money tends to look for opportunities where a good stock gets driven down in price for insignificant reasons.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
racer26
Active Member
I don't know that I necessarily agree here. Don't get me wrong, AP2.0 (both hardware and software) is a demand lever to be sure. I don't know how much demand it will really generate though. It will get some of the fence sitters Osborned by the knowledge its coming, but in general, I think MS is pretty close to the peak demand it will ever have today. By this time next year, the artificially inflated demand from buyers who otherwise would buy something like a Prius that bought MS because they wanted a good EV will drop down to the M3, as those buyers are price sensitive, and the MS will lose the unique thing that drew them.
Otherwise, I'm estimating MS will have approx 35% market share in its segment for 2016 (it lead the segment at 25% in 2015), and I just don't think that a single marque will ever get much more than that. I think asking for a 50% market share is stretching big time. You're talking about convincing some of the most brand loyal buyers (esp. of BMW and Mercedes) to jump ship.
racer26
Active Member
Tesla enters car insurance business as self-driving cars prepare to disrupt the industry
Seems in some markets Tesla is participating on the insurance side. I'm not sure it really counts though; its not like Tesla is underwriting these policies, it seems they're just partnering with an insurance company to provide a nice, simple, cohesive experience. Rates seem reasonable to me. Partnering with insurance companies though, might be to foster the relationship that will be required to work out new insurance products as required when Teslas roam our roads sans-human occupant.
Seems in some markets Tesla is participating on the insurance side. I'm not sure it really counts though; its not like Tesla is underwriting these policies, it seems they're just partnering with an insurance company to provide a nice, simple, cohesive experience. Rates seem reasonable to me. Partnering with insurance companies though, might be to foster the relationship that will be required to work out new insurance products as required when Teslas roam our roads sans-human occupant.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Just to state the obvious, yesterday's chart and this morning session are both looking bad. Let's see if this will establish a trend or we get a reversal any time soon.
Perhaps 210.74 will be the low for this week's swan dive. I hesitate to call the bottom because we've all seen false bottoms before. Nonetheless, once the market concludes that TSLA has bottomed out, there are longs who sold on the way down who want to get back in and shorts who have been waiting for this dip to exit prior to the Oct 1-3 delivery numbers being released. Once the buying starts in earnest, the shorts can no longer play the game of pushing down the SP during late afternoon slim volume because the volume is no longer slim during that time period.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Tesla Motors, Inc.'s Higher-Priced Autopilot to Test Pricing Power -- The Motley Fool
<Snip>
How might customers respond to a price increase for Autopilot? There's good reason to believe a higher price could have little -- if any -- negative impact on the company's ability to convince new and existing owners to upgrade to Autopilot. This is mainly because Tesla has a significant lead over any driver-assist technology available in production vehicles from other auto manufacturers. This lead helps justify a price increase.
a 2016 head-to-head Car and Driver comparison of Model S's Autopilot to the driver-assist systems from Nissan's 2015 Infiniti Q50S, Daimler's (NASDAQOTHDAIF) 2015 Mercedes-Benz S65 AMG, and BMW's 2016 750i xDrive -- the four cars Car and Driver said "have done the most to purge human frailties from the acts of cruising, braking, and steering." Car and Driver concluded that Tesla's Autopilot was the "clear winner" and "lives in a class of one."
And The Drive more recently compared Mercedes' latest driver-assist technology, Drive Pilot, which is found in the new 2017 E-Class, to Tesla's Autopilot, coming away with an even more telling takeaway than Car and Driver. The Drive on Mercedes' Drive Pilot:
Driver Assist? Meet Driver Persist.
The Drive on Autopilot:
Suffice to say, Tesla's clear lead over the competition in the world of assisted driving gives it some wiggle room when it comes to pricing. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if there are more price increases for Autopilot in the coming years.
SunCatcher
Member
Just ran across this little gem, which is really worth the read, while we set our investment sails on autopilot through these choppy waters;
"How I Used & Abused My Tesla — What a Tesla looks like after 100,000 Miles, a 48 State Road trip, 500 Uber Rides, 20 Rentals & 2 AirBnB sleepovers."
How I Used & Abused My Tesla — What a Tesla looks like after 100,000 Miles, a 48 State Road trip…
"In my opinion, the Tesla has held up very well. Most of my Uber riders are very surprised when I tell them the car is almost 4 years old. Yes, there are a few more minor blemishes on the paint, but nothing out of the ordinary for 100,000 miles. I really don’t think you could tell any difference between my car and any other with similar milage even though I’ve given 500 Uber rides and rented the car out 20 timesto complete strangers on Turo."
Author, Steve Sasman, is a good man. My wife and I were several of those strangers who rented his car from him on Turo. That 650 mile road trip sold us on the Tesla Experience, once and for all.
"Bonus Prediction:
I think even Tesla fans and industry analysts are massively underestimating what Tesla will do in the next few years with the cheaper Model 3 that should be fully autonomous shortly after it’s released. I think Tesla could sell 1 to 2 million units a year by 2020."
"How I Used & Abused My Tesla — What a Tesla looks like after 100,000 Miles, a 48 State Road trip, 500 Uber Rides, 20 Rentals & 2 AirBnB sleepovers."
How I Used & Abused My Tesla — What a Tesla looks like after 100,000 Miles, a 48 State Road trip…
"In my opinion, the Tesla has held up very well. Most of my Uber riders are very surprised when I tell them the car is almost 4 years old. Yes, there are a few more minor blemishes on the paint, but nothing out of the ordinary for 100,000 miles. I really don’t think you could tell any difference between my car and any other with similar milage even though I’ve given 500 Uber rides and rented the car out 20 timesto complete strangers on Turo."
Author, Steve Sasman, is a good man. My wife and I were several of those strangers who rented his car from him on Turo. That 650 mile road trip sold us on the Tesla Experience, once and for all.
"Bonus Prediction:
I think even Tesla fans and industry analysts are massively underestimating what Tesla will do in the next few years with the cheaper Model 3 that should be fully autonomous shortly after it’s released. I think Tesla could sell 1 to 2 million units a year by 2020."
Someone found evidence Tesla might be readying a pay-scheme for using Superchargers.
Tesla adds section for supercharger payments to users' MyTesla page
Tesla adds section for supercharger payments to users' MyTesla page
Awesome. I have long been a vocal critic of the prepaid model. Encourages bad behavior all around.
Also, this is day 5 of a string of down days. 3 and 5 day streaks tend to define moves, 6 day streaks are pretty rare.
I hope a payment methodology is incorporated in superchargers for numerous reasons. A long supercharger-enabled trip is still very affordable for a Model 3 owner if they elect a pay-as-you-go option. Also, consider the implications for local charging. In many big cities where apartment dwellers do not yet have overnight charging, pay-as-you go will enable local supercharger charging as an alternative to overnight charging at home. It will also eliminate the freeloaders. Give a user a maximum of two free charges a month at a supercharger within 30 miles of home. After that, you have to pay a fair amount for the charges. I once charged at a California location where an owner sat in the waiting room, bitching about the need to come and get free electricity twice a week. Adios, muchachos.
Very simple reason Tesla is going to introduce this. Supercharging will be free up to X number of full charges per year, or something like this. This will encourage people to use more destination chargers. Also, it will likely be more of a symbolic fee to remind people to not park at the Superchargers and to not Supercharge every day. A very practical way to change consumer behavior.
Additionally, some countries and states are planning to force Tesla to charge some amount to use the Superchargers. 100% sure it won't be a lot. Anyone paying attention has known this for over a year.
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