Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dakh]

Just ran across this little gem, which is really worth the read, while we set our investment sails on autopilot through these choppy waters;

"How I Used & Abused My Tesla — What a Tesla looks like after 100,000 Miles, a 48 State Road trip, 500 Uber Rides, 20 Rentals & 2 AirBnB sleepovers."

How I Used & Abused My Tesla — What a Tesla looks like after 100,000 Miles, a 48 State Road trip…

"In my opinion, the Tesla has held up very well. Most of my Uber riders are very surprised when I tell them the car is almost 4 years old. Yes, there are a few more minor blemishes on the paint, but nothing out of the ordinary for 100,000 miles. I really don’t think you could tell any difference between my car and any other with similar milage even though I’ve given 500 Uber rides and rented the car out 20 timesto complete strangers on Turo."

Author, Steve Sasman, is a good man. My wife and I were several of those strangers who rented his car from him on Turo. That 650 mile road trip sold us on the Tesla Experience, once and for all.

"Bonus Prediction:
I think even Tesla fans and industry analysts are massively underestimating what Tesla will do in the next few years with the cheaper Model 3 that should be fully autonomous shortly after it’s released. I think Tesla could sell 1 to 2 million units a year by 2020."

Did you read the whole thing? Little things: both motor and battery were also replaced under warranty.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Did you dislike Tesla charging for SC use by accident? Or do you object to it for some reason? Based on your posting history, I thought you'd be in favor of it.

I dislike someone mentioning Tesla charging for Supercharging, in some respect, at some point in the future, without emphasizing that this has been part of the plan since the beginning. It is very easy for the BS bears to attempt to take the article completely out of context.


The dislike is a reminder to please attempt to provide some context when you post a link.

Reminder: Bloggers and BS journalists have been known to skower TMC for comments and topics to write about, and to cite people on here out of context.

 

[dirtyofries]

I dislike someone mentioning Tesla charging for Supercharging, in some respect, at some point in the future, without emphasizing that this has been part of the plan since the beginning. It is very easy for the BS bears to attempt to take the article completely out of context.


The dislike is a reminder to please attempt to provide some context when you post a link.

Reminder: Bloggers and BS journalists have been known to skower TMC for comments and topics to write about, and to cite people on here out of context.

I wouldn't normally engage in this...but seriously? It's a straightforward article that gives you all the context you need. My statement is accurate - they're clearly readying the pay scheme - it doesn't matter if it was part of the plan from forever ago, it's on the close horizon now.

Like or don't like, I don't really care, but I was posting it to help everyone on this board get a little more information from what was a pretty solid source. If that's not appreciated, I won't bother.

Bears will find reasons to skew things regardless of how many paragraphs I type to contextualize a link.

 

[geneclean55]

The timing of the recent stock slide is interesting as we approach the month end. Do some of these big institutions already know what the EV-Insider estimates for the US and Europe/China deliveries for August?

These institutions will be getting their info straight from the horses mouth, the rest of will have to rely upon/gauge from sources such as InsideEV.
I am hoping the stock stays in this range until Friday, so that i can analyze official August data released by EU countries and also the InsideEV estimate before i potentially load up.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Now this is interesting, and sort of answers the question of how Tesla will initially charge for using the Supercharger. My guess is that each Tesla will receive X number of free credits per year. Surprised this just got published.

Today, Tesla updated its website to show a hidden payment option to buy ‘Supercharger credits’ per KWh block – hinting at a business model surrounding the Model 3 access to Superchargers.

Tesla adds hidden payment option to buy ‘Supercharger credits’ in kWh blocks ahead of Model 3

 

[racer26]

Someone found evidence Tesla might be readying a pay-scheme for using Superchargers.

Tesla adds section for supercharger payments to users' MyTesla page

Interesting. Certainly appears that there will be some kind of pay-per-use or pay-per-month model coming for supercharging -- but we already knew that by all the language changes around supercharging and Model 3.

Now this is interesting, and sort of answers the question of how Tesla will initially charge for using the Supercharger. My guess is that each Tesla will receive X number of free credits per year. Surprised this just got published.



Tesla adds hidden payment option to buy ‘Supercharger credits’ in kWh blocks ahead of Model 3

The kWh blocks bit is interesting. Some jurisdictions don't allow anyone other than the local power co to sell power per kWh. Maybe in those jurisdictions Tesla will sell the blocks as "per charge" or something.

 

[dandurston]

The timing of the recent stock slide is interesting as we approach the month end. Do some of these big institutions already know what the EV-Insider estimates for the US and Europe/China deliveries for August?

InsideEVs uses publicly available data for their estimates. There's no reason why anyone - you, I, big institutions - couldn't use that same data to make estimates at any time. With that said, the very back loaded nature of Tesla's quarterly deliveries mean that an estimate now for Q3 isn' that helpful.

 

[larmor]

Now this is interesting, and sort of answers the question of how Tesla will initially charge for using the Supercharger. My guess is that each Tesla will receive X number of free credits per year. Surprised this just got published.



Tesla adds hidden payment option to buy ‘Supercharger credits’ in kWh blocks ahead of Model 3

Once again we are reminded that TM is a company which also wants to make money. Good for business, and i'm sure big 3 and uber/lyft are watching with interest.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla is showing signs of moving away from the ‘no haggle’ sales model

Tesla is reportedly heavily discounting inventory Model S P90D’s now that P100D is out

If Tesla is capable of increasing its production rate beyond current demand, then I suggest local advertising in metropolitan areas outside of California, rather than some of the promotional methods being mentioned here.

I was born in Chicago and have lived in Chicagoland most of my seven-decade life. But during the eighties I lived in the California Bay Area. Outside of the inner cities the people in both areas (even their accents) are essentially the same. Tesla cars are widely seen, known and desired in California. That is not so much the case here in Chicagoland and other areas outside of California.

Most people anywhere don’t closely follow the financial news where Tesla does get free coverage. I still have to explain to a great many Chicagolanders what I mean when I refer to a Tesla car. A few tasteful local advertisements should get the ball rolling more rapidly. After a while word of mouth will take over and the ads can stop.

 

[MitchJi]

I expect the stock prices to keep trading on the lower side due to uncertainty until after the vote. After the vote, the stock may even go down further if shorts decide to pile back in. I'm not expecting much out of 3Q numbers. I am expecting relatively good 4Q, 1Q, and 2Q numbers, but this may not affect Wall Street's reaction at all. In 3Q 2017, however, Wall Street will probably be shocked that Model 3 is approximately on schedule. And in 3Q or 4Q 2017 the Silevo factory will start producing. So that's the timeframe I'm looking at: I'm not good at the short-term (who is?) but I expect that a wave of optimism will hit the stock in the latter half of 2017.

For buying shares I think that's a safe assumption, but for J18 LEAPS I think it's really risky. Elon estimated 100-200k in 2017. 100k means about three months at 35k per month. I believe that I market is going to be surprised by how close Tesla comes to meeting their goals, but I don't want to bet that they won't slip by 3-4 months.

 

[Curt Renz]

Someone found evidence Tesla might be readying a pay-scheme for using Superchargers.

Tesla adds section for supercharger payments to users' MyTesla page

I am a retiree who has reserved a Model 3. It’s been decades since I have driven more than 200 miles in a day. For long distances I fly. My eleven-year-old car has been driven only 19,000 miles. Recently I moved thirty miles to another town. On some days during my moving week I made several round trips. Never was a day’s total 200 miles.

I had the builder of my new home install Tesla compatible electrical devices in the garage. I may never need to visit a Supercharger station. But it would be nice to know that pay-as-you-go Superchargers will be available if necessary. I would not want to pay an upfront cost for lifetime unlimited availability.

There are undoubtedly many more potential buyers who would prefer pay-as-you-go Superchargers. Meanwhile there are many current owners who abuse the upfront payment plan. On a visit to a Tesla store, an ownership advisor pointed to a car in one of their Supercharger stalls which makes multiple visits each week. I was told I could do that when I get my Tesla car, since at the time I was living in a highrise apartment with charging unavailable in our parking garage. That’s ultimately a cost to those of us who are shareholders, since it adds to corporate expenses. I recommend that pay-as-you-go ultimately become the only Supercharger method for new Tesla car owners.

 

[FredTMC]

I am a retiree who has reserved a Model 3. It’s been decades since I have driven more than 200 miles in a day. For long distances I fly. My eleven-year-old car has been driven only 19,000 miles. Recently I moved thirty miles to another town. On some days during my moving week I made several round trips. Never was a day’s total 200 miles.

I had the builder of my new home install Tesla compatible electrical devices in the garage. I may never need to visit a Supercharger station. But it would be nice to know that pay-as-you-go Superchargers will be available if necessary. I would not want to pay an upfront cost for lifetime unlimited availability.

There are undoubtedly many more potential buyers who would prefer pay-as-you-go Superchargers. Meanwhile there are many current owners who abuse the upfront payment plan. On a visit to a Tesla Store, an ownership advisor pointed to a car in one of their Supercharger stalls which makes multiple visits each week. I was told I could do that when I get my Tesla car, since at the time I was living in a highrise apartment with charging unavailable in our parking garage. That’s ultimately a cost to those of us who are shareholders, since it adds to corporate expenses. I recommend that pay-as-you-go ultimately become the only Supercharger method for new Tesla car owners.

Curt, I completely agree with "pay as you go" for supercharger use. Here in SoCal the Superchargers are overwhelmed with locals getting free charges without a real need.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yes I would happily use a pay as you go Supercharger network. Hopefully they will set the price higher than what people can pay at home for charging. People are not above doing the math and still charging at the SC even if it is only pennies cheaper...

 

[Curt Renz]

Yes I would happily use a pay as you go Supercharger network. Hopefully they will set the price higher than what people can pay at home for charging. People are not above doing the math and still charging at the SC even if it is only pennies cheaper...

That's a good point. But the convenience of charging overnight at home is still a factor regarding some of those pennies. Nevertheless, I would indeed expect the cost to be a little more at a pay-as-you-go Supercharger than at home. That payment method would ultimately be a good revenue source for Tesla, especially if other brands of cars could use Tesla Superchargers. Perhaps Tesla car owners would receive a discount not allowed others. At the same time pay-as-you-go would prevent the abusive Supercharger usage seen by some current Tesla car owners who paid upfront.

 

[MitchJi]

If Tesla Model 3 Delivers, “Gas Vehicles Are History,” Gasoline & Automotive Services Dealers Of America Exec Says

<Snip>
In a new Wall Street Journal article, however, a striking quotation jumped out at CleanTechnica reader Karl Graves, who highlighted it and passed it on to me. Maybe it didn’t come from Grandma Gretchen, but it did come from the executive director of Gasoline & Automotive Services Dealers of America, Mike Fox. Here’s the beauty (which is a mix of paraphrasing from author Chris Mims and the straight words of Mike Fox):

“If Tesla can deliver on its current promises with the Model 3, says Mr. Fox, ‘gas vehicles are history—it’s horse and buggy days.’ “

Wowza. That’s one of the most “Tesla fanboy-ish” statements I’ve seen … and it’s from the executive director of Gasoline & Automotive Services Dealers of America!
<Snip>
Another wonderful quote from the Wall Street Journal article came from a more expected source, but it’s a whopper nonetheless:

“Pasquale Romano, chief executive of ChargePoint Inc., the world’s largest maker of electric-car charging stations, says he works with, and talks to, most major car companies. ‘We have seen their internal plans to just electrify everything,’ he said.

Sims notes that initial plans are largely to create plug-in hybrids. Some researchers and industry insiders think this is a smart step in the coming decade. Others, and I would presume Mike Fox is in this boat, see the Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model Y, maybe Chevy Bolt, and other long-range yet affordable electric cars as the knockout punch that relegates plug-in hybrids to a short segment of the history books.

They still don't get it. Tesla is singlehandedly making PHEV's obsolete!

 

[dandurston]

The pay-as-you-go supercharging makes sense for a lot of customers, but "free long distance travel" is also a powerful marketing message for Tesla. To have both, I suspect Tesla is going to go to three tiered system such as:

1) Pay As You Go
2) Free Supercharging* (*up to a limit)
3) Free Supercharging Max* (up to a really high limit)

Pay as you go will have the highest rate (e.g. $0.20/kWh) but you won't be paying for power you don't use. There won't be tacky credit card machines at the chargers, but rather if you show up without credits you can use the App to buy some.

Regular "free supercharging" will cost less than $2000 because it excludes heavy users. It might be $1000 for up to 1000 kWh/year. So it's a good deal for moderate users and will be subsidized by light users that still like the simplicity of having charging for the life of the car.

Even the upper tier will have a limit because folks that supercharge regularly still don't want to pay sky high prices because of daily charging taxi's. Tesla likely has little desire to cater to the upper 1% of Supercharger users, so they'll set a cap of about 5000 kWh/year. As both the "light" and "max" packages won't truly be unlimited, beyond the cap it'll be pay-as-you-go at a rate a bit less than option #1.

All of this will only apply for new cars. Base S will drop $2000 and won't have included supercharging. Mid and upper range cars will have the medium package as standard.

 

[RobStark]

InsideEVs uses publicly available data for their estimates.

"To come to an estimated monthly, number, we don’t simply take the quarterly estimate given by Tesla and divide it by 3and hope it all works out…it just doesn’t work like that in the real world. We(InsideEvs) simply report from the data we accumulate ourselves, the first hand accounts available from the factory and from the community itself when available – and the number is what it is "

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[JRP3]

Yes I would happily use a pay as you go Supercharger network. Hopefully they will set the price higher than what people can pay at home for charging. People are not above doing the math and still charging at the SC even if it is only pennies cheaper...

In fact I would expect to pay a premium for the added utility provided by supercharging. For pay as you go-ers such as myself I think it would be fine to pay an occasional higher than home charging rate fee since it's something I would rarely use, but would be quite valuable when I actually need it.

 

[dandurston]

My guess is InsideEVs makes an X-Y plot of VIN # vs. date delivered for the quarter and then slaps a trendline on that. Deliveries are then the total rise of the trendline multiplied by an estimate of the proportion that are for the USA. If there is a late Q surge they might switch from a linear to a power trendline.

 

[stealthology]

Perhaps 210.74 will be the low for this week's swan dive. I hesitate to call the bottom because we've all seen false bottoms before. Nonetheless, once the market concludes that TSLA has bottomed out, there are longs who sold on the way down who want to get back in and shorts who have been waiting for this dip to exit prior to the Oct 1-3 delivery numbers being released. Once the buying starts in earnest, the shorts can no longer play the game of pushing down the SP during late afternoon slim volume because the volume is no longer slim during that time period.

I think the thing is many don't think Q3 delivery #'s will be that great. Do we have any reason to think they will be?