Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Julian Cox]

It's obvious that I caused tsla to rise from $20 to $280. Just look at all the articles I've written here.

Good for you. I guess I got lucky to anticipate your articles with my articles.

 

[Hogfighter]

Thanks for trying to attack my English first. I type on an iphone and I have big thumbs and I am perfectly fluent in 3 languages.

It's obvious that I caused tsla to rise from $20 to $280. Just look at all the articles I've written here.

Wish I had a crystal ball......where'd you buy that thing, anyway?

 

[Lump]

Tesla Motors Inc.'s (TSLA) stock (TSLA) slumped 1.6% in premarket trade Tuesday, in the wake of a downbeat research note from Pacific Crest Securities. Analyst
Brad Erikson reiterated his sector weight rating, but said he has become more cautious on the electric-car maker's stock following channel checks. He increased his loss-per-share estimate for 2015 to $1.10 from $1.09, and slashed his 2016 earnings-per-share estimate to 27 cents from 76 cents. "Consistent with our October checks, our latest checks with U.S. sales centers indicate that Model X orders are still lagging expectations," Erikson wrote in a note to clients. "While getting the X to showrooms would help, we don't expect that to happen until later this spring due to production challenges." He said he doesn't believe the Model S promotional offer of 20% off the old lease cost has driven a significant increase to sales. "We can't overstate the importance of the March 29 Model 3 unveiling, but we remain suspicious of underlying demand and would continue to avoid [Tesla's stock]," Erikson wrote. The stock has tumbled 18% year to date, while the S&P 500 has slipped 5.1%.

 

[aznt1217]

Tesla Motors Inc.'s (TSLA) stock (TSLA) slumped 1.6% in premarket trade Tuesday, in the wake of a downbeat research note from Pacific Crest Securities. Analyst
Brad Erikson reiterated his sector weight rating, but said he has become more cautious on the electric-car maker's stock following channel checks. He increased his loss-per-share estimate for 2015 to $1.10 from $1.09, and slashed his 2016 earnings-per-share estimate to 27 cents from 76 cents. "Consistent with our October checks, our latest checks with U.S. sales centers indicate that Model X orders are still lagging expectations," Erikson wrote in a note to clients. "While getting the X to showrooms would help, we don't expect that to happen until later this spring due to production challenges." He said he doesn't believe the Model S promotional offer of 20% off the old lease cost has driven a significant increase to sales. "We can't overstate the importance of the March 29 Model 3 unveiling, but we remain suspicious of underlying demand and would continue to avoid [Tesla's stock]," Erikson wrote. The stock has tumbled 18% year to date, while the S&P 500 has slipped 5.1%.

I seriously wonder what these "checks" consist of. Anyway, whatever we are all used to these silly notes thanks to Trip

 

[Gerardf]

Now minus 3% pre-market. Repeat of yesterday ?

It's the same pattern in the premarket, but this time oil is down.

Update:
Yup, very similar pre-market pattern :

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TSLA+Interactive#{"range":"5d","allowChartStacking":true}

 

[dreamingof3]

I seriously wonder what these "checks" consist of. Anyway, whatever we are all used to these silly notes thanks to Trip

MEanwhile the stock is down 6 dollars premarket. Sigh-----I was seriously hoping for a break above 200 today. grrrrr

 

[AlMc]

I am surprised that some of the analysts are coming out with any notes before the Q4 ER/CC and 2016 guidance. It makes me feel that EM will be coming out with lots of 'sizzle' at the CC to overcome these notes. I have to admit I have become a little numb to the 'sizzle' that includes timelines. EM seems to eventually deliver on guidance but rarely 'on time'.

It would be nice to get some 'steak': GF ahead of schedule; shipment of large numbers of stationary storage with decent GMs/partnership for charging structure or non NA manufacturing partner/delivery numbers showing more Xs delivered than it seems with production ramp to 400/week.

Did I miss a thread on predictions for the ER/CC?

 

[dreamingof3]

I am surprised that some of the analysts are coming out with any notes before the Q4 ER/CC and 2016 guidance. It makes me feel that EM will be coming out with lots of 'sizzle' at the CC to overcome these notes. I have to admit I have become a little numb to the 'sizzle' that includes timelines. EM seems to eventually deliver on guidance but rarely 'on time'.

It would be nice to get some 'steak': GF ahead of schedule; shipment of large numbers of stationary storage with decent GMs/partnership for charging structure or non NA manufacturing partner/delivery numbers showing more Xs delivered than it seems with production ramp to 400/week.

Did I miss a thread on predictions for the ER/CC?

The timing is strange indeed. Two days in a row??? "Avoid the stock" This wreaks of short action! Someone once said TSLA takes the stairs up and elevator down. Man has that been true lately

 

[mrdoubleb]

I seriously wonder what these "checks" consist of. Anyway, whatever we are all used to these silly notes thanks to Trip

Yeah, this sounds silly. There are no sales/distribution channels they could investigate - Tesla owns it all, it`s in-house. At most, I would expect some of there folks walk into Tesla stores and get anecdotal "evidence" from sales reps about X orders. first of all, how representative is that? (Not) Second, as there are no Xes in showrooms, most orders will happen online - there is no reason for anyone to walk into a store and order on the spot.

But that`s all conjecture. Clearest evidence there is no problem with X orders? Tesla is not doing any marketing for it. and by that I mean, outside of 1 local "event" this past weekend, there are no cars in showrooms, no drive events, no tweets, etc. If X sales were collapsing / pre-orders were being cancelled every day, they would do everything to reassure customers and have at least 50 cars in the busiest shops on display / doing test drives. (They could do that by dedicating 1 day of production to this - a small price to pay).

 

[AlMc]

Yeah, this sounds silly. There are no sales/distribution channels they could investigate - Tesla owns it all, it`s in-house. At most, I would expect some of there folks walk into Tesla stores and get anecdotal "evidence" from sales reps about X orders. first of all, how representative is that? (Not) Second, as there are no Xes in showrooms, most orders will happen online - there is no reason for anyone to walk into a store and order on the spot.

But that`s all conjecture. Clearest evidence there is no problem with X orders? Tesla is not doing any marketing for it. and by that I mean, outside of 1 local "event" this past weekend, there are no cars in showrooms, no drive events, no tweets, etc. If X sales were collapsing / pre-orders were being cancelled every day, they would do everything to reassure customers and have at least 50 cars in the busiest shops on display / doing test drives. (They could do that by dedicating 1 day of production to this - a small price to pay).[/QUOTE]

I agree this is conjecture but I would point out they are doing a series of Test Drives for current reservation holders. Why? Conjecture: There are some (many?) people like myself that have delayed configuration and ordering because they want to see the X first.

 

[aznt1217]

Yeah, this sounds silly. There are no sales/distribution channels they could investigate - Tesla owns it all, it`s in-house. At most, I would expect some of there folks walk into Tesla stores and get anecdotal "evidence" from sales reps about X orders. first of all, how representative is that? (Not) Second, as there are no Xes in showrooms, most orders will happen online - there is no reason for anyone to walk into a store and order on the spot.

But that`s all conjecture. Clearest evidence there is no problem with X orders? Tesla is not doing any marketing for it. and by that I mean, outside of 1 local "event" this past weekend, there are no cars in showrooms, no drive events, no tweets, etc. If X sales were collapsing / pre-orders were being cancelled every day, they would do everything to reassure customers and have at least 50 cars in the busiest shops on display / doing test drives. (They could do that by dedicating 1 day of production to this - a small price to pay).[/QUOTE]

I agree this is conjecture but I would point out they are doing a series of Test Drives for current reservation holders. Why? Conjecture: There are some (many?) people like myself that have delayed configuration and ordering because they want to see the X first.

While this is true, there are two things going on here:

1. This particular person's checks, which I suspect is just a store walk in asking something like "how many do you sell a day here?" is stupid. Simply because every store will be different and it doesn't account for those ordering in their PJ's and the global markets where the Model S is still VERY new and rare.

2. Same problem as 2012 where Sales do not equal deliveries. People STILL continue to make this mistake (maybe not on this forum, but on Wall St.). While it's true you have not configured because you want to see and touch the X, plenty of people just want it because there's nothing else like it on the market... more than enough to fill the pipe.

 

[MitchJi]

SolidEnergy Announces Series B Investment | VentureBeat | Business | by Business Wire

What are the chances that Tesla is the unmentioned car manufacturer? Unless I am missing something they meet the requirements of Tesla. A battery with high specific energy density. ACTUAL prototypes (not just powerpoint slides) and they were originally making these for small consumer electronics, which if you are trying to store a lot of power in a small package you are probably doing something right.

The chances that it is as good as they claim are pretty small.
Elon Musk on Tesla's battery advantage - Tech Insider

Friday NOV 6, 2015“At this point we have quite a good understanding of all the battery technologies in the world,” Musk said during the Baron investors conference on Friday.

“Right now, we track about 60 different efforts around the world to develop improved batteries and some of them hold some long-term promise. We rate all of them from one to five, where five is we should be doing business with them and one is complete BS.”

Musk said there were no four or fives, but there were some threes, based on that rating system.

Musk acknowledged that there is a slight chance that there could be some super secret laboratory somewhere where a new battery technology is being developed that Tesla doesn’t know about. But he said it’s unlikely because Tesla is the biggest consumer of lithium-ion in the consumer world, so it would make the most sense for them to license to tesla.

 

[AlMc]

While this is true, there are two things going on here:

1. This particular person's checks, which I suspect is just a store walk in asking something like "how many do you sell a day here?" is stupid. Simply because every store will be different and it doesn't account for those ordering in their PJ's and the global markets where the Model S is still VERY new and rare.

2. Same problem as 2012 where Sales do not equal deliveries. People STILL continue to make this mistake (maybe not on this forum, but on Wall St.). While it's true you have not configured because you want to see and touch the X, plenty of people just want it because there's nothing else like it on the market... more than enough to fill the pipe.

Antz: Agree that there is no problem with 'demand' for the X. Just pointing out that TM is doing something to try to convert those reservations to confirmed orders by offering test drives. This is a good thing IMO but it contradicts the notion that TM does not have to do anything to keep confirmed orders coming in.

 

[Lump]

X "delivery" event was held 3 months ago, its reasonable to expect stores in California to have at least one on display by now, not everyone is a TMC addict so they aren't going to accept a long list of excuses & unanswered questions by the sales staff, they will simply walk out.

 

[JRP3]

Sooo is that someone agreeing with my speculation that the unnamed car manufacturer *could* be Tesla?

The round was led by a major U.S. auto company,

I doubt Tesla would be described as such.

 

[dreamingof3]

X "delivery" event was held 3 months ago, its reasonable to expect stores in California to have at least one on display by now, not everyone is a TMC addict so they aren't going to accept a long list of excuses & unanswered questions by the sales staff, they will simply walk out.

I agree Lump. If you are in the market for a new car it's kinda hard to wait and hear lots of excuses. I don't get the strategy of not having one X per store to show to prospective buyers. IMO Tesla has completely butchered the execution of the X process and deliveries. BTW- Tesla in my area told me they were "definitely supposed to get an X for the showroom by q4 2015". Still not there......

 

[CyberDutchie]

X "delivery" event was held 3 months ago, its reasonable to expect stores in California to have at least one on display by now, not everyone is a TMC addict so they aren't going to accept a long list of excuses & unanswered questions by the sales staff, they will simply walk out.

Repeating myself, but this is what a store manager told me when I walked into the store last week. She told me that every day at least 10 people come in who want to buy a Model X. She said she doesn't even want a Model X demo in the show room right now, because it would create traffic jams around Santana Row.

She went on to say that the big push right now is to serve all current X reservation holders by July and then be at a point where she can promise new interested people walking into the store that they will be able to get the car relatively soon if they place the order.

 

[Bunky]

Repeating myself, but this is what a store manager told me when I walked into the store last week. She told me that every day at least 10 people come in who want to buy a Model X. She said she doesn't even want a Model X demo in the show room right now, because it would create traffic jams around Santana Row.

She went on to say that the big push right now is to serve all current X reservation holders by July and then be at a point where she can promise new interested people walking into the store that they will be able to get the car relatively soon if they place the order.

Indeed. The priority is, quite rightly, fulfilling long standing orders/pent up demand, rather than getting cars in stores to generate further demand.

 

[Lump]

Repeating myself, but this is what a store manager told me when I walked into the store last week. She told me that every day at least 10 people come in who want to buy a Model X. She said she doesn't even want a Model X demo in the show room right now, because it would create traffic jams around Santana Row.

She went on to say that the big push right now is to serve all current X reservation holders by July and then be at a point where she can promise new interested people walking into the store that they will be able to get the car relatively soon if they place the order.

Gee, either figure out how to deal with your horrific traffic jam or send units to other stores.

Burbank is a new Service Center+Super Charger+Gallery with plenty of parking, I have been there twice & at most only 1 person browsing in the store.

 

[FredTMC]

Well. Looks like macro concerns is back and on the front burner... Oil