Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[EinSV]

One point I'm not sure I have seen mentioned is that many took it as a bearish sign that Tesla provided no guidance for Q3 deliveries. That obviously was not the case.

Hopefully, this is the start of more conservative quarterly projections. From the available info it looks like 50K in Q3/4 is conservative, but we shall see.

With TE, I would love to see them start out with conservative guidance. Market expectations seem to be very low relative to the opportunity. Regularly beating guidance should boost investor confidence on Tesla execution. And since lofty guidance will likely be discounted heavily, there is no reason not to be conservative. With GF cell production about to start and several large TE projects announced recently, it would not surprise me to see some form of TE guidance in the Q3 earnings report, although we may have to wait until early 2017.

 

[dmckinstry]

I believe that is referred to as "capitulation".

Yep. He's found that he can't convert us damned heathen. Now we're lost souls forever.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Struggling with the Upper Bollinger band on the Daily. After lunch volume might be enough to take it out or we might have to wait until tomorrow/later in the week

.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I bailed at 214. Will hop back in when the pattern of lower and lower minimums stop

You sold all??

 

[Chickenlittle]

They will probably raise capital before Q3 ER.

It will be telling whether before or after report. If it's a good report it will be after

 

[esk8mw]

OK! Plugged new numbers into my (100% amateur) model after trying to redo all the new GAAP stuff and got the following:

non-GAAP profit: $0.37
GAAP profit: ($0.01)
Free Cash Flow: $51 million (not CF from Ops, actual FCF)

So, right next to GAAP profitability and positive cash flow. I hope this is somewhere near correct. Here's some of my key assumptions:

non-GAAP GM: 22.7% (0.8% increase over Q2)
non-GAAP Opex: $475 million (increase from $452 million)
GAAP Stock-based Comp Opex: $46.7 million (decrease from $60.8 million)
CapEx: $425 million (increase from $295 million)
ZEV credits: $10 million
non-GAAP revenue: $2.67 billion

As always, don't trade based on this. Track record: last month I predicted EPS of (0.63) nG and (1.94) G after getting the real deliveries numbers and it was actually (1.07) nG and (2.09) G. So, off by a good chunk. There's more uncertainty than ever before with the accounting changes so I could be wildly off in either direction.

 

[esk8mw]

It will be telling whether before or after report. If it's a good report it will be after

If it's before the report, I'd expect it in the next 2 weeks or so. Once we get within about 2 weeks of the report without seeing a raise I'd expect they will wait until after earnings. I'd be very surprised to see a raise within 2 weeks of earnings.

 

[Jayjs20]

You sold all??

Correct, and I bought back in at 212.9, giving me a +$1.1 on top of what we're gaining today. Then I sold again at 214. Now I'm waiting for hopefully 212.5 to buy in again, but I'll settle for 212.7 if we don't hit it in the next couple of hours. I get pretty anxious when I'm sitting out of TSLA for a certain amount of time. Frankly, day trading is fun. I just don't have enough capital to do it as often as I'd like.

 

[stealthology]

Struggling with the Upper Bollinger band on the Daily. After lunch volume might be enough to take it out or we might have to wait until tomorrow/later in the week
View attachment 197286 .

This morning we also barely touched the 200 and 50 day SMA's (both converging perfectly at 215).

 

[Quesder]

Correct, and I bought back in at 212.9, giving me a +$1.1 on top of what we're gaining today. Then I sold again at 214. Now I'm waiting for hopefully 212.5 to buy in again, but I'll settle for 212.7 if we don't hit it in the next couple of hours. I get pretty anxious when I'm sitting out of TSLA for a certain amount of time. Frankly, day trading is fun. I just don't have enough capital to do it as often as I'd like.

Wow, you really have dispelled the curse that was on you before. Now we should follow you. So again, you need to report what you are GONNA do on this forum before you do it.

 

[tander]

Disagree. Revised analyst price targets should hit tomorrow before opening bell, and with a slightly green NASDAQ we should see a run into the 220's with volume. Articles will continue to reinforce positive upside surprise is likely in Q3, and buyers will magnify this effect as fear of missing out on gains combines with continued covering.

Was the numbers yesterday sufficient to warrant analysts upgrades? I wonder if it was too ambiguous. Certainly seems like some could show up on the trading shows or Bloomberg or reiterate Tesla's reiteration .

So. Now the question is: does the SCTY merger vote happen before or after 3Q16 TSLA ER.

If it does, I think the short term optimal play is to get out of the TSLA rise off the deliveries report near some sort of peak, and take advantage of the continued merger arb opportunity (which should close after the vote to converge on the conversion ratio), by pumping that powder into SCTY, and then switch back after, in time to catch the TSLA ER.

If it happens after 3Q16 TSLA ER, then should hold TSLA till the ER and then switch.

It will be telling whether before or after report. If it's a good report it will be after

I think you're onto something Chicken. My guess assuming earnings are good, is that solar/storage announcement, autopilot update?, part 2 of M3 reveal and model y reveal?, earnings, cap raise, then vote/merger. But I guess if earnings are bad then the cap raise and earnings get switched.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Do you think it's moreso the UBB or the 200 and 50 day SMA's (both converging perfectly at 215) which we just barely touched this morning?

I think the SMAs are what arrested the initial move upward and it's the UBB currently holding it back at the current time. I like to think of the Bollinger bands like a rubber band. You can go past them but they like to resist further movement. I'm not a technical expert though so this is just what I'm seeing right now. Tomorrow the bollinger bands should be expanded and that will make getting past the SMAs easier, assuming we don't do that this afternoon.

 

[techmaven]

If you look at the previous significant moves to the upside, they often took 3+ days. NASDAQ isn't helping us here either, but @FluxCap is right, there should be upgrades/notes from analysts and hopefully we will end the week much higher.

I was hoping for a pop to the low 220's testing that resistance before settling in the teens today to then move higher, but the 215 resistance was too strong to blow by.

 

[Mike Smith]

There's a video on cnbc.com of Robert McNamee claiming that someone is (probably) coming next year with 10X the unit volume of Tesla at a much lower cost. It's at 3:20 of the video. Is he suggesting 1 million Bolts in 2017? or 1 million Mercedes EQ Vodka Bars? Not sure where they find these guests - maybe Mark Spiegel was booked solid.

 

[Drax7]

There's a video on cnbc.com of Robert McNamee claiming that someone is (probably) coming next year with 10X the unit volume of Tesla at a much lower cost. It's at 3:20 of the video. Is he suggesting 1 million Bolts in 2017? or 1 million Mercedes EQ Vodka Bars? Not sure where they find these guests - maybe Mark Spiegel was booked solid.

Where is the battery capacity to build out all this competition, McNamara is not well informed .
Competition lacks the supercharger network .
They are so so behind.

 

[tander]

If you look at the previous significant moves to the upside, they often took 3+ days. NASDAQ isn't helping us here either, but @FluxCap is right, there should be upgrades/notes from analysts and hopefully we will end the week much higher.

I was hoping for a pop to the low 220's testing that resistance before settling in the teens today to then move higher, but the 215 resistance was too strong to blow by.

I really wonder if deliveries are enough to warrant upgrades or not, guess we'll know soon enough.

 

[stealthology]

A bit interesting I thought:

So Deutsche Bank, the one who helped Tesla will the $300M loan for their direct leasing program in Q3 (2% IR), increased their stake in Tesla by over 100% in Q2. Tesla's call the discuss the possibility of acquiring SCTY was in June.

We'd be naive to think there isn't any engineering going on on Tesla's side, but that's in response to the 5,000x engineering going on with Elon haters.

As biased as I may be, I think Tesla pulled out GAAP profitability in Q3. All signs pointing there.

 

[TMSE]

Disagree. Revised analyst price targets should hit tomorrow before opening bell, and with a slightly green NASDAQ we should see a run into the 220's with volume. Articles will continue to reinforce positive upside surprise is likely in Q3, and buyers will magnify this effect as fear of missing out on gains combines with continued covering.

Do you have any price target for end of this year and next year?

 

[DaveT]

I don't think analyst price target upgrades are coming.

SCTY acquisition and pending capital raise making analysts hesitant.

For example, Adam Jonas came out with note this morning and here's the last paragraph:

"A welcome positive after a challenging summer. But we’re not convinced these results will make the skeptics give up the bear case view that the Tesla share count will continue to rise faster than the Tesla share price. Our $245 price target offers 20% upside to fair value. Given the combination of execution risk, SCTY deal risk and financing risk, we believe investors should be offered a higher reward as compensation. We are convinced Tesla is well positioned for what the auto/transportation industry is rapidly evolving into (shared, autonomous and electric mobility). It is the financing of the plan and the impact on the firm’s cost of capital following the announced SCTY transaction that give us pause."

 

[Xpert]

I really wonder if deliveries are enough to warrant upgrades or not, guess we'll know soon enough.

Deliveries is the biggest the STEAK all along. It might take a few days to reverse the down trend, today is the start. As a trend stock, TSLA tends to go up or down fairly quickly over several weeks. Cant time the up and down daily so I'd just hold it through ER.