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racer26
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Also interesting: As predicted, the jump in TSLA is way outstripping the gains in SCTY. Arb gap opening up again.
I'd expect arb gap not to close significantly until the uncertainty over the SunRun lawsuit is settled. Even if the lawsuit has no merit at all, it seems that general SCTY sentiment is against anything that drags the merger out.
Still holding my 215 Oct 7th. Gonna let this play out a bit.Man, I chickened out and sold my short term calls at a mere 100% gain. Now looking at 400% gain. Always sell my winners early!
At least I still have the shares, mid term calls, mid term short puts and long term short puts to keep me going
As we crunch numbers, especially for GAAP vs Non-GAAP, the different business model and sales recognition process becomes increasingly material for Tesla. Specifically, as Tesla grows WIP will grow at the rate of sales, but leading by about one quarter since sales only are recognized on final sale of the vehicle.
Interestingly, the crucial Supercharger expansion and associated operating expenses are hardly material, at $272,000 average cost of a location, and cost recognition in Sales expense is not material. If other manufacturers actually recognized the value of such a network one would think they would be directly investing in them, but no manufacturer is doing so apart from partnership with ChargePoint and the like.
Right now we are on the cusp that all the accounting issues have enough scale that quarter by quarter analysis is becoming practical. Finally Tesla is becoming a "real car company" just as SolarCity arrives to distort our views.
Short term price movements might begin to stabilize during the next year, at least after Model 3 deliveries begin.
Good idea! Could be a multiday runner. Wouldn't shock me at all to see 230-240 by Friday.
I bailed at 214. Will hop back in when the pattern of lower and lower minimums stop
It'll be interesting to watch it for a couple of days. If we can break 215, it looks like we have some room to run. With the merger weighing us down and likely giving the shorts reason not to cover, I find it tough to guess where we'll end up. Perhaps more knowledgeable minds have some thoughts?
Seems to me it will continue to have rumor leading wild fluctuations, no idea how wild, until we know actual gross margins and cost of sales for 3Q, so can reconcile GAAP. If fundamentals show positive turf then, there will be a significant run up, otherwise I think it will be hard to hold above 215, and probably, barring some really good news, settling more around 205 or so.
racer26
Active Member
Disagree. Revised analyst price targets should hit tomorrow before opening bell, and with a slightly green NASDAQ we should see a run into the 220's with volume. Articles will continue to reinforce positive upside surprise is likely in Q3, and buyers will magnify this effect as fear of missing out on gains combines with continued covering.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
racer26
Active Member
So. Now the question is: does the SCTY merger vote happen before or after 3Q16 TSLA ER.
If it does, I think the short term optimal play is to get out of the TSLA rise off the deliveries report near some sort of peak, and take advantage of the continued merger arb opportunity (which should close after the vote to converge on the conversion ratio), by pumping that powder into SCTY, and then switch back after, in time to catch the TSLA ER.
If it happens after 3Q16 TSLA ER, then should hold TSLA till the ER and then switch.
If it does, I think the short term optimal play is to get out of the TSLA rise off the deliveries report near some sort of peak, and take advantage of the continued merger arb opportunity (which should close after the vote to converge on the conversion ratio), by pumping that powder into SCTY, and then switch back after, in time to catch the TSLA ER.
If it happens after 3Q16 TSLA ER, then should hold TSLA till the ER and then switch.
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