CALGARYARSENAL
Member
LOL. My mother calls him "slick." He isn't everybody's cup of tea, but seems like a nice guy when he isn't bashing Tesla.
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TrendTrader007
Active Member
TSLA quarterly chart is forming a morning star pattern which is incredibly bullish
YTD TSLA is down only 10.96% after being up in every single last 6 years
Daily chart shows a high volume gap up today with a bolllinger breakout in the making
So my take is that this move is just starting today and if I'm right ( I'm usually right 80% of time in my chart reading) then this October is similar to November 2012 and over the next 23 months or so TSLA will appreciate considerably and I would not be surprised to see a market cap of $ 90 to $100 Billion which means a SP of approximately $600
Now of course in a crazy runaway bull market we could even overshoot to $1000 a share but let's not get carried away here
I find several longs here are way too conservative in their thinking as to the SP. $240 to $250 is nothing when a growth stock like TSLA gets going, I mean really going then all bets are off and to listen to analysts is like listening to sheep. With a few exceptions analysts are a herd
Short trade is extremely crowded. The writing is in the wall. Shorts are basically screwed. You NEVER should short a company with over 100% YOY growth. I feel for shorts
Conservative longs will be fine except some may sell too soon thinking that TSLA will revert to its old ways of going up and down but they will be wrong and it's a matter of weeks to months at most when this stock will break $291 ceiling and will make a run for $300s and beyond
I'm not bragging here (maybe just a little) but bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered
Not true
It takes courage to be a pig (Stan Druckenmiller)
As someone who has made millions in the market ( and lost millions) my take is simply this: this is the time to be a pig in TSLA and to go for the jugular
This is NOT an advice just my own personal opinion and I could be totally wrong
I like to eat my own pudding
So do not listen to me and do NOT blame me if TSLA crashes and burns but as far as I'm concerned I'll stay 120% long TSLA until I think the entire move has played out which may take another 23 months or so
YTD TSLA is down only 10.96% after being up in every single last 6 years
Daily chart shows a high volume gap up today with a bolllinger breakout in the making
So my take is that this move is just starting today and if I'm right ( I'm usually right 80% of time in my chart reading) then this October is similar to November 2012 and over the next 23 months or so TSLA will appreciate considerably and I would not be surprised to see a market cap of $ 90 to $100 Billion which means a SP of approximately $600
Now of course in a crazy runaway bull market we could even overshoot to $1000 a share but let's not get carried away here
I find several longs here are way too conservative in their thinking as to the SP. $240 to $250 is nothing when a growth stock like TSLA gets going, I mean really going then all bets are off and to listen to analysts is like listening to sheep. With a few exceptions analysts are a herd
Short trade is extremely crowded. The writing is in the wall. Shorts are basically screwed. You NEVER should short a company with over 100% YOY growth. I feel for shorts
Conservative longs will be fine except some may sell too soon thinking that TSLA will revert to its old ways of going up and down but they will be wrong and it's a matter of weeks to months at most when this stock will break $291 ceiling and will make a run for $300s and beyond
I'm not bragging here (maybe just a little) but bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered
Not true
It takes courage to be a pig (Stan Druckenmiller)
As someone who has made millions in the market ( and lost millions) my take is simply this: this is the time to be a pig in TSLA and to go for the jugular
This is NOT an advice just my own personal opinion and I could be totally wrong
I like to eat my own pudding
So do not listen to me and do NOT blame me if TSLA crashes and burns but as far as I'm concerned I'll stay 120% long TSLA until I think the entire move has played out which may take another 23 months or so
Couldn't agree more with the comments on analyst the "pros" that tells you after the fact. Kind of like the driver that signals when marking the turn geez thanks! If they are such "experts" tell me with certainty what is about to happen. Too bad many investors listen to that kind of crap. Done that, been there, lost money. Unfortunately this is one of those situations where we need them to make some upgrades now that the news is out and people will pour money into TSLA to move higher. Let's hope over 300 this time!
TT07: Love the passion. I'll be happy if we see ATH this year and even happier to see $1,000/share in the next two years.
Actually if we see 1,000 I will have sold my shares at 600 and let my daughter's IRA ride to $1000
Actually if we see 1,000 I will have sold my shares at 600 and let my daughter's IRA ride to $1000
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
With Tesla having finally having brought home the bacon, I see a potentially very good month ahead.
There's going to be anticipation of a possible demonstration of the Solar Roof, Inverter, and Battery system. We can also look forward to what is likely to be a decent earnings call in November.
There's going to be anticipation of a possible demonstration of the Solar Roof, Inverter, and Battery system. We can also look forward to what is likely to be a decent earnings call in November.
I live in nowhere'sville, in NE PA about an hour and a half from NYC and there are a lot of small BMW, Audi, Mercedes and Lexus. Many people do that 1.5 hour drive into NYC or North Jersey every day. I keep thinking wait until these people get to see what driving a Tesla Model 3 is like. BMW, Audi, Mercedes and Lexus are doomed. ;-)
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Well I dunno. I'm just making an educated guess wholly based on my experience in trading growth stocks and recognizing winning patterns. I have no clue whether TSLA will go to 300 or 600 or 1000 but my premise is simple:TT07: Love the passion. I'll be happy if we see ATH this year and even happier to see $1,000/share in the next two years.
Actually if we see 1,000 I will have sold my shares at 600 and let my daughter's IRA ride to $1000
Every growth stock has its day in the sun and after being in market exile since 2014 it's almost time for TSLA to emerge from the shadows and make new highs. Now mind you a growth stock like TSLA does not follow a linear growth trajectory , instead it's exponential and we are about to embark on the steep side of the S curve or at least I think so in my conceit. In any case the market is the final arbiter and I shall keep my mouth shut and carefully nurture every single of my thousands of TSLA shares until there is an Amazonian melt up ( or Netflixxian ascent)
Oh my GOD. I just figured out that TrendTrader007 is really Julian Cox....
@ TrendTrader007 - I love your enthusiasm. Many of us have been saying the exact same thing for over 2 years. We have all been convinced that a major breakout was less than a quarter away. Someday I think it will happen. I just no longer think it will happen "soon..." But the last 2 years of flat trading has allowed me to slowly increase my TSLA position 4x. Now if it goes up 5x, I can retire early. If it goes up 10X, I will retire and live like a king!
But the last 2 years of flat trading has allowed me to slowly increase my TSLA position 4x. Now if it goes up 5x, I can retire early. If it goes up 10X, I will retire and live like a king!
TrendTrader007
Active Member
well if you look at TSLA daily chart from November 2012 then you'll notice how frustrating daily moves can be. basically daily volatility will rule the landscape now just as in 2012 and it took another 4 to 5 months for TSLA to make a huge breakout on April 1st, 2013@ TrendTrader007 - I love your enthusiasm. Many of us have been saying the exact same thing for over 2 years. We have all been convinced that a major breakout was less than a quarter away. Someday I think it will happen. I just no longer think it will happen "soon..."
i believe that today's move is a precursor to an eventual huge breakout move which may still be another 4 to 5 months away and will reward patience. the stage is being set and the true believers shall be hugely rewarded. and make no mistake, while I'm not at all religious, investing in true growth stocks like TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, FB etc is an act of faith, an ultimate test of how much you believe because the really big money is only made by the true believers aka buy and holders
the rest is conversation
I get you, hopefully TSLA can be like NVDA that grew 2X in 10 months or so ... Thats called "really growing"
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Nah, trendtrader007 doesn't ramble and doesn't post with the frequency of a machine gun.
More like 3x...I sold all NVDA at less than $20/share to buy TSLA I think back in feb this year. Did not have enough faith in it unfortunately, was painful to watch it tripled up slowly over the months.
Tesla's turn to rise soon and i wont miss it this time, Tesla is so damn similar to Netflix which was a small leader that had a new business model and managed to put out its many established and deep pocket competitions at the time (walmart, blockbusters).
I love growth stocks, made a small fortune with Apple and Netflix years back, which were a no brainer in the face of the shorts. IMO Tesla is the next no brainer now until 2020 as model 3, Y, and truck come out in mass quantities.
I said grew 2X, basically 3X of original price. I think TSLA is a very promising stock in the next 5 yrs if you can discount macro movement. Thats why i am shorting the market a bit.
2x TSLA == $65b market cap... or 1.4x BMW
3x TSLA == $97b market cap... or 2.0x BMW
BMW 2015 deliveries: 2,250,000
TSLA 2016 sales (hopefully): 80,000
in what world does Tesla warrant a valuation 1.4x or 2x BMW while selling 3% annually that BMW does?
every time TSLA's market cap starts touching the large auto companies... the lack of substance in the story becomes completely obvious... and rapid downgrades start occurring... since the recent stock sales and the coming one... the PPS for TLSA will be less while the market cap starts bumping up against very large auto companies... meaning $260 in the past is now $240... and after SCTY acquisition and $3b in capital raise... the number will be more like $210.
dc_h
Active Member
When you point at something, a dog just sees your finger. A normal human sees a place in the distance. Time will tell if we get the finger or the future. I'm done responding sans something new.
My approach is sitting on my long term holdings, never touch them. I am confident the company will grow into a giant, with ups and downs from time to time.
I occasionally create additional trading positions, buy low sell high, only when all stars line up. Part of it is to make money, part of it is to hurt the bashers. Then I add trading profit to my long term holdings. I don't care about the shorts, it's their rights to do whatever with their money. I do care when they actively do things to hurt Tesla, such as spreading FUD to scare away potential customers. They did a lot of it during the past 6 years, almost drove Tesla to the ground in 2012.
Buying Options has one problem, if something goes wrong, that money is lost, when one dollar is lost, I really lost $20 or more, considering the alternative approach is to keep the money in the shares. I occasionally trade Options. I found charts and technical indicators are much more reliable than business developments.
I occasionally create additional trading positions, buy low sell high, only when all stars line up. Part of it is to make money, part of it is to hurt the bashers. Then I add trading profit to my long term holdings. I don't care about the shorts, it's their rights to do whatever with their money. I do care when they actively do things to hurt Tesla, such as spreading FUD to scare away potential customers. They did a lot of it during the past 6 years, almost drove Tesla to the ground in 2012.
Buying Options has one problem, if something goes wrong, that money is lost, when one dollar is lost, I really lost $20 or more, considering the alternative approach is to keep the money in the shares. I occasionally trade Options. I found charts and technical indicators are much more reliable than business developments.
But Tesla isn't just cars. Does BMW have their own battery factory for their EV cars? No, they buy batteries from someone else. They also sub out more of the parts than Tesla does.
@myusername:
I accept that you feel TM is overvalued via the SP of TSLA.
What do you think the SP should be?
Why do you think the current price seems to retain a value greater than your valuation?
I accept that you feel TM is overvalued via the SP of TSLA.
What do you think the SP should be?
Why do you think the current price seems to retain a value greater than your valuation?
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