Hey guys. Been away for a while. I heard there was a sale so came back to load up.
A few words before I step back into the shadows, I get that people are upset about the X ramp; but, the assumption that a simpler design would have allowed for us to ramp production 2 years earlier ignores the history. Tesla was battery constrained during that time period. Every additional X built would have taken away a S delivery and that would actually hurt not help (more S is financially better than mixed S and X if the total is the same). Many of us discussed this at length during that time, as the first signs of delay were coming out. We were pleased with the delay.
When the X was first debuted, they thought that the limits of S demand were 20k per year. They needed a second car ready in time to pick up the growth when S sales leveled off. TM delivered on the order of 20k in Q4 alone, so clearly this assumption was dead wrong. An "on-time" delivery of the X from a shareholder point of view was NOT desirable. The decision to shift resources to ramping up the S was the right one. Furthermore, the decision to decompose certain features of the X (like dual motor AWD) and create even higher margin S variants was the right one (more profit for each available battery).
Now, I'm not going to say that the X isn't late, and everything is just fine. Personally, I pegged the beginning of this past summer as the optimum time for X deliveries to start. I was a little bummed by the delay to Sept. and annoyed at how the year closed out, but at this point I'm only worried about 6 months worth of lost sales, not years. If they can get their act together and get ramped up, 6 months of delay/slow deliveries will make no material difference.
Also, all stocks that I own are getting slaughtered. I think if you take that into account, along with TSLA's high beta, and tack on some added red for recent poor execution, and analysts piling on, the price action isn't ridiculous. Oh, it sucks, but it isn't completely looney.
The question is what to do now. I feel for those of you trapped in calls without much time to wait for resolution. I've been there, I know that sucks. I also understand that it is hard to view this decline as a sale when you have no more cash to spend. That sucks too. But, for me, I agree with comments made recently by another member: Elon often misses his projected dates, but he always does what he says he is going to do. I think the X situation is a point in time problem. They'll fix it and we'll get this train back on the rails and headed in the right direction.
So, if you accept that as your thesis too, and you have cash you are able and willing to risk, then this is nothing but a chance to accumulate. I bought some today, and I'll buy more and more if the decline continues.
