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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Most here straight up disagree with you.

Model 3 will be every bit as awesome as promised, and will arrive on time - by the end of 2017. Tesla can't afford to be late this time.

Roadster was late because amazingly enough, building cars is hard, even when you have Lotus building most of the car for you. Tesla had transmission problems where the transmissions they got couldn't handle the torque.

MS was late because Tesla had to learn how to build the rest of the car.

MX was late because of hubris, and the FWDs. Building high-tech fancy doors is hard when trying to make them not leak and still meet a 5 star safety spec.

M3 won't be late. Its designed from the ground up for manufacturability, and its not trying anything new technology wise that Tesla hasn't already proven in their existing models. Pencils have been down on the design for several months now, Gigafactory is on or ahead of schedule, Fremont has the stamping capacity and the paint shop capacity already online, so they just need to build a body-in-white line and a final assembly line for it.

We shall see.
 
Because I was 90% down in February, and I really hated the feeling.
And because I learned that anything is possible, and price can go much lower than I thought possible.
Add to it that stock did nor react according to my expectations for Q3, so I may be very wrong...

This is a perfect example of an unwarranted drop. Personally I have used it to sell a couple puts for Friday at $200 and $197.50. We'll see how it goes.
 
M3 won't be late. Its designed from the ground up for manufacturability, and its not trying anything new technology wise that Tesla hasn't already proven in their existing models. Pencils have been down on the design for several months now, Gigafactory is on or ahead of schedule, Fremont has the stamping capacity and the paint shop capacity already online, so they just need to build a body-in-white line and a final assembly line for it.
Model 3 could be late because they didn't spend enough money soon enough to mass produce it.
 
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Ummm, no. That looks like GAAP estimates to me, especially since you're expecting q4 to have positive non-GAAP EPS.

Average share outstanding in 3Q16 will be around 149 million. A GAAP profit of $0.28 EPS would be a $41.7 million profit. GAAP loss in 2Q16 was $293.2 million. That would be an improvement on the bottom line $335 million in one quarter.

If it is instead a non-GAPP projection and the add backs for stock based compensation ($67.3 million) and non-cash interest ($31.8 million are held constant, it would indicate a GAAP loss of $57 million --still a bottom line impressive improvement of $236 million.

We'll see in a month.
 
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<snip>

MS was late because Tesla had to learn how to build the rest of the car.
<snip>

Tesla as a public company delivered the Model S on time. When Tesla went public in June 2010, it had only one alpha prototype of the Model S, no real production experience and did not even have possession of the Fremont factory yet.

Nonetheless, it announced a target production date of 2012 with an ultimate production goal of "up to approximately 20,000 cars per year." TESLA MOTORS INC (Form: 424B4, Received: 06/29/2010 06:12:24). It launched the Model S in mid-2012, as predicted, and beat its production goal of "up to 20,000" vehicles in the first full year (2013). In other words, once Tesla had adequate funding from the IPO, it was off to the races.

I believe Tesla is very likely to repeat this result and meet or beat its 2018 vehicle production goals.
 
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Average share outstanding in 3Q16 will be around 149 million. A GAAP profit of $0.28 EPS would be a $41.7 million profit. GAAP loss in 2Q16 was $293.2 million. That would be an improvement on the bottom line $335 million in one quarter.

If it is instead a non-GAPP projection and the add backs for stock based compensation ($67.3 million) and non-cash interest ($31.8 million are held constant, it would indicate a GAAP loss of $57 million --still a bottom line impressive improvement of $236 million.

We'll see in a month.

Edit: I was going to post this:

This posting makes a claim of doubt about the level of improvement. Your first posting made a claim of interpretation of GS's estimates. Two different things. Your previous posting was internally inconsistent with the interpretation that GS's positive Q3 EPS (and slightly negative 2016 EPS) were non-GAAP, especially given that 1H 2016 was non-GAAP positive and you were expecting Q4 non-GAAP to be positive as well. If ALL 4 quarters of non-GAAP is positive, how can you conclude that GS's numbers are non-GAAP?

But after reviewing your previous posting for the numbers, I see that 1H 2016 was changed from positive to negative. Typo'd and I responded sooner than the correction? Sorry about that. Your posting is consistent now.
 
Tesla as a public company delivered the Model S on time. When Tesla went public in June 2010, it had only one alpha prototype of the Model S, no real production experience and did not even have possession of the Fremont factory yet.

Nonetheless, it announced a target production date of 2012 with an ultimate production goal of "up to approximately 20,000 cars per year." TESLA MOTORS INC (Form: 424B4, Received: 06/29/2010 06:12:24). It launched the Model S in mid-2012, as predicted, and beat its production goal of "up to 20,000" vehicles in the first full year (2013). In other words, once Tesla had adequate funding from the IPO, it was off to the races.

I believe Tesla is very likely to repeat this result and meet or beat its 2018 production goals.

That's only quasi true. Tesla Motors to Manufacture Sedan in California (NASDAQ:TSLA)

In June 2008, Tesla said they were targeting late 2010 serial production of MS.
 
That's only quasi true. Tesla Motors to Manufacture Sedan in California (NASDAQ:TSLA)

In June 2008, Tesla said they were targeting late 2010 serial production of MS.

What I said is actually 100% true. "Tesla as a public company delivered the Model S on time." Tesla was not public until mid-2010 and still did not even have possession of the factory (it only had a contract with Toyota). As I said in my earlier post, once Tesla raised $ from the IPO, it delivered on time and beat its production targets in the first full year.

So investors had nothing whatsoever to complain about from the Model S launch. Especially when the stock price went up over 10x from the IPO price since virtually no one thought Tesla could deliver as they predicted in their IPO.:cool:
 
Tesla as a public company delivered the Model S on time. When Tesla went public in June 2010, it had only one alpha prototype of the Model S, no real production experience and did not even have possession of the Fremont factory yet.

Nonetheless, it announced a target production date of 2012 with an ultimate production goal of "up to approximately 20,000 cars per year." TESLA MOTORS INC (Form: 424B4, Received: 06/29/2010 06:12:24). It launched the Model S in mid-2012, as predicted, and beat its production goal of "up to 20,000" vehicles in the first full year (2013). In other words, once Tesla had adequate funding from the IPO, it was off to the races.

I believe Tesla is very likely to repeat this result and meet or beat its 2018 production goals.

This depends on who you ask.... really.
 
Most here straight up disagree with you.

Model 3 will be every bit as awesome as promised, and will arrive on time - by the end of 2017. Tesla can't afford to be late this time.

Roadster was late because amazingly enough, building cars is hard, even when you have Lotus building most of the car for you. Tesla had transmission problems where the transmissions they got couldn't handle the torque.

MS was late because Tesla had to learn how to build the rest of the car.

MX was late because of hubris, and the FWDs. Building high-tech fancy doors is hard when trying to make them not leak and still meet a 5 star safety spec.

M3 won't be late. Its designed from the ground up for manufacturability, and its not trying anything new technology wise that Tesla hasn't already proven in their existing models. Pencils have been down on the design for several months now, Gigafactory is on or ahead of schedule, Fremont has the stamping capacity and the paint shop capacity already online, so they just need to build a body-in-white line and a final assembly line for it.

We shall see.

Until TM proves otherwise one has to consider that being late with the M3, while not a certainty, is a possibility given past history.
 
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