According to this normal time from design freeze to market is 24 months.
http://www.autonews.com/article/201...s-cutting-development-time-and-costs-for-new-
So if design freeze was this summer, normal time to market would be 2018 summer.
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According to this normal time from design freeze to market is 24 months.
http://www.autonews.com/article/201...s-cutting-development-time-and-costs-for-new-
So if design freeze was this summer, normal time to market would be 2018 summer.
That is in reference to a new model of a established car platform, not a entirely new car/platform. Part of the model x delay was the initial estimate of being able to build it off of the model s platform, which didn't work out and it needed to be rebuilt from the ground up.
larmor
Active Member
TM learned alot from prior development and mistakes, that was the purpose of the last historical CC, from the roadster on up. Has GS learned as well?
This is not a typical situation, though. Tesla has been focused on the Model 3 for 10 years. My personal guess is customer cars start rolling off the line in October/November 2017.
The recall twitter guy is claiming TSLA short interest is up $300 million this week. Sounds about right.
That's assuming tesla executes at industry average. You ignored my previous question of what is industry average for building a new car/platform from the ground up to volume production. From what I recall reading it is around 6 years. Which means even in the case of the model x delays, tesla's execution was far quicker than industry average. Especially for a ground up luxury high tech SUV.
I don't know, what is industry average.
Anyway, Model X was revealed February 2012 and volume deliveries started about 4 years later. And it is not completely new car, IIRC 30% of parts are shared with Model S.
And now there are 0 shares available to short at Fidelity, with interest steady at 14%.
So it looks like short sellers consumed all 1 million shares that were available at Fidelity yesterday.
MissAutobahn
Elon, please ramp up Semi production!
Anybody an idea with how many billions of dollars in shares the oilindustrie is battling agianst Tesla?
Every new car, of course, has parts shared. But the big difference in development time is if the chassis/platform is built from the ground up. As was the case for the model x. It seems pretty clear that relative to its cost/class and ground up build, tesla actually beat industry average by a good margin considering prototype to volume production for a ground up build on a luxury class car. (delays included)
Gerardf
Active Member
The Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Downgrade From Goldman Sachs? Ignore It
"But from the standpoint of TSLA stock, it's clear Goldman Sachs has had no clue"
And as he also states :
"And with production of its Model 3 sedan, which the company says is on target to launch by late 2017, Tesla stock should be owned, not traded. And Goldman Sachs should be ignored."
"But from the standpoint of TSLA stock, it's clear Goldman Sachs has had no clue"
And as he also states :
"And with production of its Model 3 sedan, which the company says is on target to launch by late 2017, Tesla stock should be owned, not traded. And Goldman Sachs should be ignored."
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Anyway we are now talking about Model 3 and normal time to market from design freeze is 24 moths. You believe, that Tesla can do that faster than car manufacturers in general. I don't. We can agree to disagree.
racer26
Active Member
Tesla does almost everything faster than other automakers. Why not this?
I actually believe that MX initially was off the table for full focus development due to unexpected MS demand. This would include the limitations on battery availability at the time. I think it is very possible and appropriate that the company delayed the MX to some extent to maximixe the MS. Therefore delays in the Mx were in part planned and not necessarily applicable to the M#. This is not to lessen the complication of the MX and that delay which occurred due to hubris.
KnowLittle
Member
Just a FYI that the Electric link shows a different GS analyst than Bloomberg (Patrick Archambault vs. David Tamberrino). If it is David (per Bloomberg) then I'm much less concerned.
Tesla’s (TSLA) stock is down after Goldman Sachs cuts price target, sees slower Model 3 ramp up
Goldman Downgrades Tesla, Months After Underwriting Offering
They have very different track records per Tip Rank:
Patrick Archambault
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/patrick-archambault
Ranked #385 out of 4,190 Analysts
(#523 of 9,650 overall experts)
David Tamberrino:
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/david-tamberrino
Ranked #3,978 out of 4,190 Analysts
(#9,202 of 9,650 overall experts)
Tesla’s (TSLA) stock is down after Goldman Sachs cuts price target, sees slower Model 3 ramp up
Goldman Downgrades Tesla, Months After Underwriting Offering
They have very different track records per Tip Rank:
Patrick Archambault
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/patrick-archambault
Ranked #385 out of 4,190 Analysts
(#523 of 9,650 overall experts)
David Tamberrino:
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/david-tamberrino
Ranked #3,978 out of 4,190 Analysts
(#9,202 of 9,650 overall experts)
Gerardf
Active Member
Good find !
You also mentioned it in the Electrek comments. Maybe Fred can double-check (and correct).
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Well, there's a Chinese Wall between the Analyst side of GS and the Investment Banking side... just saying
Yeah, I was very confused by the switch also... it's always been Patrick A..
Update: BloomTerd article says: "Since he had upgraded the stock, Archambault has left Goldman. Tamberrino was on his team at the time." So, there you have it. Patrick isn't with GS now.
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