Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MitchJi]

Those that need to hear the warning are probably deaf.

And dumb.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Your post basically proved my point.

1) Motley Fool, Profit Confidential, and The Country Caller barely count as real news publications.

I would also add Barons, Fortune, LA Times, and the Wall Street Journal, when it comes to Tesla.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

One theory for why Tesla is down. The arbitrage gap between SolarCity and Tesla doesn't work like you think it does, in the short term. Tesla is currently about 20% from where it was when the merger was announced. SolarCity is currently ~20% below the agreed upon price.

In my view, the words "Max Pain" should be blocked from this website. Max Pain theory, assumes the market is operating efficiently, and doesn't apply when there are many events that will happen over the next 1-3 months. The options spread, and relatively low volume for Tesla and SolarCity options negates any impact of "Max Pain".

 

[dakh]

ok... that's a funny one too... but I was just trying to remind that max pain is not a solid indicator (although still useful) in that it can move $15 in a day.

I'm getting annoyed at how some of your posts are treated here.

 

[Value Ev]

Your post basically proved my point.

1) Motley Fool, Profit Confidential, and The Country Caller barely count as real news publications.
2) Almost every article that mentioned Wednesday's announcement includes commentary by author asserting the announcement will not be significant and is all hype, was another example of Tesla delaying a release, or is an attempt by Elon to pump the stock.
3) A few articles were published this morning that appeared to underscore the significance of Tesla partnering with Panasonic in Buffalo. Panasonic has very clearly stated it will invest billions of dollars into Tesla, and is prepared to invest more if Tesla asks.

wut?
I gave you a list of the top articles from google news.
None of them are BS.
And you say it proves that all the news today is BS?
And you even say that the Panasonic articles talk about how much they are supporting Tesla. Are you claiming that that is BS? That Panasonic is NOT prepared to invest more if Tesla asks?

We will see how significant an announcement the Wednesday announcement will be.
But remind me again, what was the timing between the Goldman downgrade and the "annoucement that we are going to make an announcement"? If it wasn't hype, etc, why not just announce something when it was ready to be announced?

 

[EinSV]

Electrek just reported a Jan 4 event at GF 1.

Also mentioned in Baird's update this morning.

I liked this snippet from Baird:

Battery factory is our biggest focus and from what we can tell is on time and ahead of budget. Although the battery factory will take several years to reach full capacity, we believe progress updates should be catalysts for the stock. We expect to hear updates on the production ramp and potential full production capacity of the factory on the Q3 call and at the opening event on January 4.

http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-SWB-45117​

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

wut?
I gave you a list of the top articles from google news.
None of them are BS.
And you say it proves that all the news today is BS?
Any you even say that the Panasonic articles talk about how much they are supporting Tesla. Are you claiming that that is BS? That Panasonic is NOT prepared to invest more if Tesla asks?

We will see how significant an announcement the Wednesday announcement will be.
But remind me again, what was the timing between the Goldman downgrade and the "annoucement that we are going to make an announcement"? If it wasn't hype, etc, why not just announce something when it was ready to be announced?

Guessing you meant to delete the last part of your comment? You basically just stated you think the announcement is entirely hype. I don't think there is any need for me to say more.

 

[dakh]

But remind me again, what was the timing between the Goldman downgrade and the "annoucement that we are going to make an announcement"? If it wasn't hype, etc, why not just announce something when it was ready to be announced?

Pretty clear to me Elon is simply excited to share his work with the world. As an INTJ myself I can relate to that quite well.

 

[Value Ev]

Guessing you meant to delete the last part of your comment? You basically just stated you think the announcement is entirely hype. I don't think there is any need for me to say more.

Any announcement about an announcement is by definition hype.
Get ready...I am going to tell you something....next week! Oh wait, need two more days!

The eventual announcement could be highly substantive or another hype-burger - won't know until the announcement is made.

 

[jimmyjohn]

NetFlix now has a higher market cap than GM:

NetFlix (after its Q3 release) > General Motors

Netflix, Inc.: NASDAQ:NFLX quotes & news - Google Finance

General Motors Company: NYSE:GM quotes & news - Google Finance

 

[Tenable]

I must say that this thread has become far more palatable since I blocked several users including Value EV and MyUsername. Obviously this is an individual decision, but I highly recommend it.

 

[Value Ev]

Pretty clear to me Elon is simply excited to share his work with the world. As an INTJ myself I can relate to that quite well.

But no work was actually shared.
Only that they are working on something (duh, I hope that the company is working on many new things) and it will be announced next week.

 

[Value Ev]

I must say that this thread has become far more palatable since I blocked several users including Value EV and MyUsername. Obviously this is an individual decision, but I highly recommend it.

I understand that if all you want is to listen to people exactly like yourself with the same viewpoints as yourself, that that is the right thing to do. Important that we all find our own safe zones.

"I think this is a very common mistake - to not actively seek out and listen to negative feedback." Mr. Elon Musk

 

[dakh]

But no work was actually shared.
Only that they are working on something (duh, I hope that the company is working on many new things) and it will be announced next week.

"Product unveiling" is not some kind of vague "we're working on something". I imagine there's a demo and they found some glitches that take a few days to resolve, or there's some specifics that need to be part of the unveiling that they couldn't finalize in time.

 

[jimmyjohn]

NFLX is +20% in after hours trading --- there must be something wrong with the link I included.

That would be more than $9B added to their market cap if it opens this way Tuesday.

and yet after crushing the subscriber numbers, they are only up 23 cents in after hours?
as a big, longtime Netflix holder...sigh...

 

[Value Ev]

NFLX is +20% in after hours trading --- there must be something wrong with the link I included.

That would be more than $9B added to their market cap if it opens this way Tuesday.

weird, not sure how I first saw that....nice to see the significant bump.

 

[myusername]

Pretty clear to me Elon is simply excited to share his work with the world. As an INTJ myself I can relate to that quite well.

i've also been classified as an INTJ... but i don't hold much respect to classifications... regardless... there's a happy medium to "blast it out" and "reserve strategically" that's not being well managed by Elon.

 

[myusername]

Any announcement about an announcement is by definition hype.
Get ready...I am going to tell you something....next week! Oh wait, need two more days!

The eventual announcement could be highly substantive or another hype-burger - won't know until the announcement is made.

"Any announcement about an announcement is by definition hype."

never said better... and while hype is usually perceived as a negative thing... in Tesla's case for many years it's been perceived as a chance to be part of the next best thing... but I think the Elon Tweet Machine is starting to become mundane.

 

[Value Ev]

i've also been classified as an INTJ... but i don't hold much respect to classifications... regardless... there's a happy medium to "blast it out" and "reserve strategically" that's not being well managed by Elon.

When something is "blasted out" right around the time of the downgrade, AND they miss the target by 2 days (on a 7 day notice), it just comes off as hype or bad planning.

Again, to be clear:
- The announcement on the 17th can, and hopefully will, be a significant product announcement. Tesla Vision with an available retrofit, for example.
- The announcement of an announcement and missing it so quickly, comes off as hype or they don't really have their act together.

 

[geneclean55]

One theory for why Tesla is down. The arbitrage gap between SolarCity and Tesla doesn't work like you think it does, in the short term. Tesla is currently about 20% from where it was when the merger was announced. SolarCity is currently ~20% below the agreed upon price.

In my view, the words "Max Pain" should be blocked from this website. Max Pain theory, assumes the market is operating efficiently, and doesn't apply when there are many events that will happen over the next 1-3 months. The options spread, and relatively low volume for Tesla and SolarCity options negates any impact of "Max Pain".

Who knows what will happen this week, but there have been obvious Friday pins even since the Solar City shenanigans. Also , it may not end up at 210 for sure but some market makers will lose a decent chunk if the price craters this week.