Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Value Ev]

Elon needs to provide a financial and product churrascaria style experience. If he doesn't bury us in steak over the next several weeks, I think many of us will be very sad. In the meantime, I'm holding through the pain.

Brilliant use of "churrascaria" metaphor!

The question though is where is Tesla in it's life cycle with regard to the type of steak that people need to have served up?

This is a typical pattern for hyper growth: big vision gets you the big valuation. Follow that up with some solid execution and even bigger vision, then the valuation gets pumped up even more. At some point though, the balance between how much vision vs. delivery is expected starts to shift.

Webvan vs. Amazon.
Both had huge visions.
Amazon just kept executing really well...every single quarter...then threw out more vision (Prime!, Music!, now local grocery).
Webvan kept stumbling on execution and bigger visions couldn't support it.

Seems that Tesla is going to miss the 80-90k guidance they gave but if they show 500k Model 3 reservations, that won't matter. They just need to show that they can execute to fulfill that demand.

 

[geneclean55]

Max pain this week is 210. Also, as its monthly options expiration there should be some more weight to it this week.

 

[AlMc]

Or, could be just SCTY - TSLA arbitrage trading...

Yeah, I think the big players are sitting around like the rich uncle, letting the shorts rough up the weaker retail investors and then the big players pick up more TSLA at sale prices before the ER. This strikes me as a seriously-dumb time to be selling TSLA.

I am one data point but I would rather buy SCTY right now than TSLA.

 

[Quesder]

I am one data point but I would rather buy SCTY right now than TSLA.

I wish I did so. Bought TSLA at 196.47 last Friday and thought it was a good deal. Couldn't do anything this morning, even now.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

End of day rally. Bullish as ever!

 

[racer26]

We're at an interesting spot going into the final 10 minutes.

TSLA has clawed back much of the losses from earlier today, and SCTY is in a position which makes the arb gap wider than it was this morning. Wonder how that'll change by close.

 

[Papafox]

We're at an interesting spot going into the final 10 minutes.

TSLA has clawed back much of the losses from earlier today, and SCTY is in a position which makes the arb gap wider than it was this morning. Wonder how that'll change by close.

I'm thinking the shorts want TSLA to close at 193.99 after this rally, but they may lack the muscle to pull it off.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

195 close or higher imho.

 

[Jayjs20]

Guess they did have the muscle, though bearly.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Every article today is either rehash BS, brand new BS, or outright made up BS. I'll take this as a good sign.

 

[tander]

Well, earnings on the 26th will probably give a preview on SCTY matters as I'm sure they will be asked (including Panasonic involvement).

The 28th will cover actual products to be available from the combined company.

And Nov 1 presentation will cover the financial aspects of the merger.

So, I'd say Elon has committed to doing exactly what you ask - discuss all relevant aspects of the merger in short order. It is puzzling to me that people are already writing the obituary on the merger before even learning what caused Elon to make the purchase in the first place. I know as well as anyone that the SP performance has sucked lately, but that doesn't mean the merger is a bad idea - it means that WS dislikes uncertainty and risks. Now, if we get to Nov 2 and the announcements fall short - by all means, register your displeasure. I haven't voted my shares yet for a reason.

Seems like people are forgetting some things about the merger.
1. This merger has and always had a very high probability of happening, considering that the same person pretty much founded and runs both companies involved, and they have been operating as one in many ways for years.
2. Unless you think SCTY really is so desperate that it needs a bailout, Tesla is getting a really good deal on SCTY. It's a lot less expensive for Tesla to acquire SCTY when it looks like damaged goods than when SCTY is flying high. Musk & Rive are not ignorant of this.
3. Building companies and building stock prices can be two different things sometimes. I don't know if it will be a month, a year, or five years before this becomes the accepted as fact, but solar + batteries pretty much makes more sense than any other form of power generation right now. Tesla does batteries, SolarCity does solar. Put batteries and solar together and you have a product that pretty much sells itself, kind of like Tesla cars.
4. I think we're getting to the point where people (and analysts) are close to accepting that Tesla is not just a car company. It is constantly reinventing itself and adapting to changing climates and opportunities. SCTY is just another part of that adaptation. If you want to worry about something, start to worry when they've gone a year or two without doing something that makes your scratch your head.

 

[MitchJi]

Bolt reservations are starting:
Pre-Ordering For Chevy Bolt Begins In California

<Snip>
Keyes Chevrolet general manager Rick Alpern wrote that of the 78 allotted cars, he already has 35 deposits, leaving 43 still up for grabs. The 238-mile Chevy Bolt starts at $37,495, allowing it to squeak just under the $30,000 mark when the $7,500 Federal tax rebate is applied.

Another dealership in Silicon Valley reported similar allocations, though the initial allotment of cars will limited to California and Oregon for now. There’s also no saying when all those cars will actually arrive, as it took 10 weeks between pre-ordering and the first deliveries of the 2011 Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid.
<Snip>
The second wave of states to get Bolt allocations will likely include a number of liberal Northeast states, such as New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, as well as car-hungry places such as Texas and Michigan. GM’s rollout of the 2011 Chevy Volt took about four months for it to be available nationwide, and the Bolt is likely to follow a similar pattern, meaning nationwide ordering should be open by the second quarter of 2017.

Get those wallets ready.

Tesla killer, Tesla killer, (those few 100 Bolt sales are going to kill the M3!)

 

[myusername]

Max pain this week is 210. Also, as its monthly options expiration there should be some more weight to it this week.

max pain will move... especially during expiration week... it will probably adjust down to 202.50 or lower today... and will follow the stock price down if it descends from here.

 

[myusername]

Every article today is either rehash BS, brand new BS, or outright made up BS. I'll take this as a good sign.

unless of course it's not BS and that's just your interpretation.

 

[Tenable]

Seems like people are forgetting some things about the merger.
1. This merger has and always had a very high probability of happening, considering that the same person pretty much founded and runs both companies involved, and they have been operating as one in many ways for years.
2. Unless you think SCTY really is so desperate that it needs a bailout, Tesla is getting a really good deal on SCTY. It's a lot less expensive for Tesla to acquire SCTY when it looks like damaged goods than when SCTY is flying high. Musk & Rive are not ignorant of this.
3. Building companies and building stock prices can be two different things sometimes. I don't know if it will be a month, a year, or five years before this becomes the accepted as fact, but solar + batteries pretty much makes more sense than any other form of power generation. Tesla does batteries, SolarCity does solar. Put batteries and solar together and you have a product that pretty much sells itself, kind of like Tesla cars.
4. I think we're getting to the point where people (and analysts) are close to accepting that Tesla is not just a car company. It is constantly reinventing itself and adapting to changing climates and opportunities. SCTY is just another part of that adaptation. If you want to worry about something, start to worry when they've gone a year or two without doing something that makes your scratch your head.

How have Tesla and SC been operating as one company for years? Elon being Chairman and owning 20% of SC does not make this so.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

unless of course it's not BS and that's just your interpretation.

You're welcome to believe whatever you want. However, if you don't agree with my comment about today, your view is irrelevant.

 

[racer26]

I honestly can't wait to see if there is any actual trend to the data surrounding the Bolt.

We currently have one Quebec and one California dealer showing anything resembling real pre-order numbers, and they represent about half the cars that dealer was allotted. Those are not exactly the most inspiring of numbers. Considering that the dealers in question are EV-savvy and unlike the other dealers around, and so the majority of dealers are likely to have less demand for EVs than they do. When your best EV-selling stealerships can only sell about half the cars you give them, out of a number of cars that was already less than 10% of what Tesla plans to sell in 2018, Bolt, as we've all known forever, is being demonstrated to not be a threat to Tesla.

 

[TMSE]

Bolt reservations are starting:
Pre-Ordering For Chevy Bolt Begins In California

Tesla killer, Tesla killer, (those few 100 Bolt sales are going to kill the M3!)

Here is the funny part "..of the 78 allotted cars, he already has 35 deposits, leaving 43 still up for grabs.."

Why do they still have 43 up for grabs? No one is lining up, I guess.

 

[myusername]

You're welcome to believe whatever you want. However, if you don't agree with my comment about today, your view is irrelevant.

this is a really funny post.

 

[tander]

How have Tesla and SC been operating as one company for years? Elon being Chairman and owning 20% of SC does not make this so.

There are many examples. Musk has even referred to SCTY as as sister company on TSLA conference calls. A big recent one is SCTY restructuring and laying sales staff back in August in anticipation of Tesla's sales team absorbing that impact.