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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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max pain will move... especially during expiration week... it will probably adjust down to 202.50 or lower today... and will follow the stock price down if it descends from here.

Translation:
Guys, I am trying to maximize the value of my puts, and so I continue to come up with creative ways to suggest that TSLA is going lower from here. I also have some calls, but I don't want to say anything good about TSLA until all my puts are sold.
 
There are many examples. Musk has even referred to SCTY as as sister company on TSLA conference calls. A big recent one is SCTY restructuring and laying sales staff back in August in anticipation of Tesla's sales team absorbing that impact.

Tander, you seem well intentioned and I'm fairly cranky today as I'm starting to hit my pain thresholds after a rough TSLA year. With that said, these are not examples of the companies operating as one. The layoffs for example are in preparation for a merger whilst attempting to clean up the books. Not something that exists as an ongoing collaboration between the two very different entities.
 
Translation:
Guys, I am trying to maximize the value of my puts, and so I continue to come up with creative ways to suggest that TSLA is going lower from here. I also have some calls, but I don't want to say anything good about TSLA until all my puts are sold.

If his comments here can manipulate the SP of TSLA then I think everyone that has him on ignore should consider 'un-ignoring' him;)
 
From the MP part 2:
Integrate Energy Generation and Storage
Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world.
Elon is planning to provide a substantial portion of the world's energy. Energy that's currently provided by oil companies (think Standard Oil in the early 1900's), plus coal and natural gas companies plus nuclear energy (aka government funded boondoggles). In other words his plan is to replace many of the biggest companies in the world. If Tesla only gets a tiny percentage of that market it will be the worlds biggest company! Much bigger than exon mobil, because exon mostly provides oil, not coal for electricity etc.

The market is good at recognizing risk, but it's doing an incredibly bad job at recognizing the corresponding opportunity. That's fine but I expected more from this forum. With all of the the SCTY bashing nobody seems to have even seen the potential. It's fine if you do see it and don't want to take the risk, just wait for a good exit point and bail. But please stop crying about this, at least in public on this forum. People are coming across like a bunch of cry babies.

And how much does the market care now about the fact that the SMP 2 was a few days late. It's a complete non issue. It's the content that's important. In terms of announcements the content is the Tofu, and the timing is the sizzle.

And the gloom and doom on the Panasonic investment is pretty crazy right now because it's mostly based on speculation about the silevo panels and the merger. It's normally a good idea to wait until you know what you're talking about to start making comments about a topic. I'm pretty sure that it's good news, not a sign that Elon's losing his mind.
 
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Every article today is either rehash BS, brand new BS, or outright made up BS. I'll take this as a good sign.

...checks Google News...

What is BS about:

The new referral program?
The opening of store/superchargers in Ireland?
Tesla Partnering with Panasonic?
New Product Announcement Bumped to Wednesday?

You should correct them if they are BS.
(can email the writers of the article - usually there is an email in the articles themselves).

Then you should let Tesla know that these BS articles are out there so Elon can correct them too on Twitter.
 
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Seems like people are forgetting some things about the merger.
1. This merger has and always had a very high probability of happening, considering that the same person pretty much founded and runs both companies involved, and they have been operating as one in many ways for years.
2. Unless you think SCTY really is so desperate that it needs a bailout, Tesla is getting a really good deal on SCTY. It's a lot less expensive for Tesla to acquire SCTY when it looks like damaged goods than when SCTY is flying high. Musk & Rive are not ignorant of this.
3. Building companies and building stock prices can be two different things sometimes. I don't know if it will be a month, a year, or five years before this becomes the accepted as fact, but solar + batteries pretty much makes more sense than any other form of power generation right now. Tesla does batteries, SolarCity does solar. Put batteries and solar together and you have a product that pretty much sells itself, kind of like Tesla cars.
4. I think we're getting to the point where people (and analysts) are close to accepting that Tesla is not just a car company. It is constantly reinventing itself and adapting to changing climates and opportunities. SCTY is just another part of that adaptation. If you want to worry about something, start to worry when they've gone a year or two without doing something that makes your scratch your head.

This is something that bothers me as well. Basically no financial articles or analysis commentary is even considering the viewpoint that maybe Tesla is getting a good price for solarcity, maybe they can actually sell scty long term cash flows and make near term funding easier not harder. It's just 100% regurgitation of the same FUD view point.
 
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Tander, you seem well intentioned and I'm fairly cranky today as I'm starting to hit my pain thresholds after a rough TSLA year. With that said, these are not examples of the companies operating as one. The layoffs for example are in preparation for a merger whilst attempting to clean up the books. Not something that exists as an ongoing collaboration between the two very different entities.

Yeah I am well intentioned. I think this is why there is so much acrimony with the merger. One point of view sees the sales force layoff as cleaning up the books, another point of view sees it as a sign of strength. If you haven't already I'd listen to the conference call they did on the merger.

If they have been operating as one company for years, then the idea of the merger makes even less sense given SCTY's performance.

Let's hope they haven't and Tesla can turn around SCTY and get some value out of it.
 
From the MP part 2:

Elon is planning to provide a substantial portion of the world's energy. Energy that's currently provided by oil companies (think Standard Oil in the early 1900's), plus coal and natural gas companies plus nuclear energy (aka government funded boondoggles). In other words his plan is to replace many of the biggest companies in the world. If Tesla only gets a tiny percentage of that market it will be the worlds biggest company! Much bigger than exon mobil, because exon mostly provides oil, not coal for electricity etc.

The market is good at recognizing risk, but it's doing an incredibly bad job at recognizing the corresponding opportunity. That's fine but I expected more from this forum. With all of the the SCTY bashing nobody seems to have even seen the potential. It's fine if you do see it and don't want to take the risk, just wait for a good exit point and bail. But please stop crying about this, at least in public on this forum. People are coming across like a bunch of cry babies.

And how much does the market care now about the fact that the SMP 2 was a few days late. It's a complete non issue. It's the content that's important. In terms of announcements the content is the Tofu, and the timing is the sizzle.
Agreed, solar is a means to an end: extracting free energy from the sun. With economies of scale, cost of solar should come down. With technology advancments, solar capture should become more effecient, not less efficient. There are many places in the world where energy for home and industry is tenuous and a solution is needed.
 
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From the MP part 2:

Elon is planning to provide a substantial portion of the world's energy. Energy that's currently provided by oil companies (think Standard Oil in the early 1900's), plus coal and natural gas companies plus nuclear energy (aka government funded boondoggles). In other words his plan is to replace many of the biggest companies in the world. If Tesla only gets a tiny percentage of that market it will be the worlds biggest company! .

This is the standard flaw in looking at large numbers.
Business Plan: "I am going to sell rice. If I get even a tiny percentage of the market in Asia, I will be hugely rich!!"
(neglecting the fact that companies kill each other over a tiny percentage of a tiny percentage of a tiny percentage of market share).

It is a lofty goal, but it isn't as if Elon has invented solar power, has a competitive edge and will be the only one trying to compete in the energy market.

Exxon predicted this back in 1980 and shifted from being an oil company to an energy company and IIRC were behind the research that resulted in dropping the price of solar so dramatically. Exxon Predicted Today's Cheap Solar Boom Back in the 1980s
 
Translation:
Guys, I am trying to maximize the value of my puts, and so I continue to come up with creative ways to suggest that TSLA is going lower from here. I also have some calls, but I don't want to say anything good about TSLA until all my puts are sold.
ok... that's a funny one too... but I was just trying to remind that max pain is not a solid indicator (although still useful) in that it can move $15 in a day.
 
And how much does the market care now about the fact that the SMP 2 was a few days late. It's a complete non issue. It's the content that's important. In terms of announcements the content is the Tofu, and the timing is the sizzle.

No, the timing is not the sizzle, it is an important part of credibility. The timing is the "Commitments matter and I can meet commitments I make"

If you don't care about credibility, then you are right, it doesn't matter if SMP 2 was late.

Or as someone else has said: "It's normally a good idea to wait until you know what you're talking about to start making comments about a topic"

Maybe he should just announce things when he knows what he is talking about and they are ready to announce, rather than announce that he is going to make an announcement about a planned announcement...and wind up missing that announcement date.
 
Just in ...

SolarCity and Credit Suisse Partner to Finance More Than $300 Million in Residential Solar Projects
SAN MATEO, Calif., Oct. 17, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- SolarCity Corp. (Nasdaq: SCTY) today announced that it has created a new fund to finance more than $300 million in solar projects with Credit Suisse. The fourth such collaboration between SolarCity and Credit Suisse will allow thousands of homeowners in the U.S. to pay less for solar electricity than they pay for utility bills.
 
Agreed, solar is a means to an end: extracting free energy from the sun. With economies of scale, cost of solar should come down. With technology advancments, solar capture should become more effecient, not less efficient. There are many places in the world where energy for home and industry is tenuous and a solution is needed.
Solar is already cheap, and prices are still falling rapidly. IMO when Tesla announces the new Solar roof and the TE products and prices we'll see that the combination is a lot lower than the market expects. Low enough to be cost effective now in more places than Tesla can supply, for now.

Everyplace in the world will benefit from affordable, clean and sustainable energy.
 
...checks Google News...

What is BS about:

The new referral program?
The opening of store/superchargers in Ireland?
Tesla Partnering with Panasonic?
New Product Announcement Bumped to Wednesday?

You should correct them if they are BS.
(can email the writers of the article - usually there is an email in the articles themselves).

Then you should let Tesla know that these BS articles are out there so Elon can correct them too on Twitter.

Your post basically proved my point. :rolleyes:

1) Motley Fool, Profit Confidential, and The Country Caller barely count as real news publications.
2) Almost every article that mentioned Wednesday's announcement includes commentary by author asserting the announcement will not be significant and is all hype, was another example of Tesla delaying a release, or is an attempt by Elon to pump the stock.
3) A few articles were published this morning that appeared to underscore the significance of Tesla partnering with Panasonic in Buffalo. Panasonic has very clearly stated it will invest billions of dollars into Tesla, and is prepared to invest more if Tesla asks.
 
Just in ...

SolarCity and Credit Suisse Partner to Finance More Than $300 Million in Residential Solar Projects
SAN MATEO, Calif., Oct. 17, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- SolarCity Corp. (Nasdaq: SCTY) today announced that it has created a new fund to finance more than $300 million in solar projects with Credit Suisse. The fourth such collaboration between SolarCity and Credit Suisse will allow thousands of homeowners in the U.S. to pay less for solar electricity than they pay for utility bills.
That's impossible!

During the merger SCTY is not supposed to be able to raise money!
 
Translation:
Guys, I am trying to maximize the value of my puts, and so I continue to come up with creative ways to suggest that TSLA is going lower from here. I also have some calls, but I don't want to say anything good about TSLA until all my puts are sold.

For the record, I don't see anything in need of translation in that post. Simple statement of how this works.
 
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