Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[myusername]

I must say that this thread has become far more palatable since I blocked several users including Value EV and MyUsername. Obviously this is an individual decision, but I highly recommend it.

i'll make this the last post of the day to not disrupt the board...

fortune cookie: the most useful information can many times be found by those you do not share the same opinion with.

many questions today of "why does the SP keep falling?"... there are infinite reasons why this may be... all I'll say is... attempt to factor risk into your analysis.

 

[TMSE]

i'll make this the last post of the day to not disrupt the board...

fortune cookie: the most useful information can many times be found by those you do not share the same opinion with.

many questions today of "why does the SP keep falling?"... there are infinite reasons why this may be... all I'll say is... attempt to factor risk into your analysis.

myusername said: "fortune cookie: the most useful information can many times be found by those you do not share the same opinion with."

Thanks for trying to feed us "useful" information. Have you found any of our information/ opinions/ views useful? If yes, how?

 

[ggr]

Every article today is either rehash BS, brand new BS, or outright made up BS. I'll take this as a good sign.

SSDD.

 

[myusername]

myusername said: "fortune cookie: the most useful information can many times be found by those you do not share the same opinion with."

Thanks for trying to feed us "useful" information. Have you found any of our information/ opinions/ views useful? If yes, how?

i'll break my promise for this... YES... I have found a lot of very useful information on this board... generally... the dialog has been useful... specifically... how longs are valuing exponential growth in Auto and how important Energy is in the equation. also, watching the dialog on the SP in relation to short activity... the Bloomberg graphic yesterday was interesting... etc. i've been watching it all and if it's quantitatively relevant to SP or just to sentiment... it's useful. also the posts on short interest from fidelity have been interesting.

have I changed my stance? no... but has following this board helped me understand the entrenched long stance... very much yes.

 

[MitchJi]

Also mentioned in Baird's update this morning.

I liked this snippet from Baird:

Battery factory is our biggest focus and from what we can tell is on time and ahead of budget. Although the battery factory will take several years to reach full capacity, we believe progress updates should be catalysts for the stock. We expect to hear updates on the production ramp and potential full production capacity of the factory on the Q3 call and at the opening event on January 4.

http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-SWB-45117​

Reiterate Outperform rating after hosting meetings with management. We are constructive heading into Q3 and expect updates on the battery factory construction and ramp on the Q3 call (after market close on October 26)…

Our Q3 estimates are above consensus although Street models may not have been updated since the Q3 delivery announcement, and we expect a noisy quarter as Tesla is phasing out non-GAAP metrics. We estimate non-GAAP revenue of $2,408M vs. consensus of 2,340M, gross margin of 21.0% vs. 22.2%, and EPS of $0.27 vs. $0.06. We will update our model to GAAP after the quarterly results…Importantly, this update is not connected to anything heard at management meetings. We continue to recommend shares as upcoming catalysts should drive the stock higher…

 

[Value Ev]

First they say:

Reiterate Outperform rating after hosting meetings with management.

And then analyst provides an update.

And they add

Battery factory is our biggest focus and from what we can tell is on time and ahead of budget.

Then they say:

Importantly, this update is not connected to anything heard at management meetings.

Funny.

Does that mean that their forecast is not based on the GF being ahead of budget, since they must have heard that somewhere? Must mean there is even more upside then if they didn't include that in an area which was their biggest focus

 

[everman]

"Product unveiling" is not some kind of vague "we're working on something". I imagine there's a demo and they found some glitches that take a few days to resolve, or there's some specifics that need to be part of the unveiling that they couldn't finalize in time.

I agree with this. If you look at the wording, he is referencing the announcement that needs refinement.

Moving the Tesla announcement to Wednesday. Needs a few more days of refinement.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I'm hoping the announcement is Tesla Glass. I think this has the most wow factor - every age bracket will love it.

 

[MitchJi]

"Product unveiling" is not some kind of vague "we're working on something". I imagine there's a demo and they found some glitches that take a few days to resolve, or there's some specifics that need to be part of the unveiling that they couldn't finalize in time.

Product unveiling is the October 28th event:
Tesla to hold a special event at the Gigafactory on January 4, 2017

It certainly makes for a lot of interesting upcoming events for Tesla:

• October 19: mysterious product announcement
• October 26: Q3 financial results
• October 28: unveiling event with SolarCity for solar roof, Tesla Powerwall 2.0 and Tesla charger
• November 1: New information about financial aspects of the merger with SolarCity
• November 17: Special shareholders meeting to vote on the merger
• January 4: special event for investors at the Gigafactory

That’s 6 events in the next 3 months and we wouldn’t surprise if there a few more things revealed in December.

 

[ggr]

Earnings super bullish. When I see a stock up 20% after hours I call b.s. to the Macro doom and gloom.

Sorry, whose stock is up 20%?

 

[everman]

Sorry, whose stock is up 20%?

NFLX

 

[Intl Professor]

TSLA is up .21% after hours. There's still an hour to go before 20%. Keep your fingers crossed, I would but for the aurthoritis.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Sorry, whose stock is up 20%?

Reed Hastings Goliath.

 

[Intl Professor]

Reed Hastings Goliath.

I thought that was amazon. Great season!! Lost two days watching it.

 

[dalalsid]

Any announcement about an announcement is by definition hype.
Get ready...I am going to tell you something....next week! Oh wait, need two more days!

The eventual announcement could be highly substantive or another hype-burger - won't know until the announcement is made.

You must be talking about the r8 etron. Or maybe the announcement of the announcement of the hypothetical commencement of the production of the hypothetical q6 etron.

 

[jimmyjohn]

Netflix -- now, or opening bell Tuesday (assuming no changes) -- has a LARGER MARKET CAP than General Motors.

Sorry to repeat, it's just weird.

 

[Turing]

NFLX is +20% in after hours trading --- there must be something wrong with the link I included.

That would be more than $9B added to their market cap if it opens this way Tuesday.

Chart looks kind of odd, like all the algos decided at once that +20% was the correct price going forward.

 

[TMSE]

Netflix -- now, or opening bell Tuesday (assuming no changes) -- has a LARGER MARKET CAP than General Motors.

Sorry to repeat, it's just weird.

How is NFLX relevant to TSLA discussion?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

My meta-analysis of this thread is the following (1) Substantial volume of negative outlook posts in the past few days (2) Drastically increased activity from accounts that dislike Tesla Motors.

In the context of TSLA moving below 200, I would say this might be a good time for long term investors to DCA any additions of TSLA into their portfolios. The time to buy is when there is fear and uncertainty everywhere. People have called me a psychopath, abnormal, and even financially suicidal, but the fact remains that fear of loss is felt 2x happiness from gain. For abnormal people who either don't experience this or can isolate the fear, there's a lot of money to be made preying on weak sellers.

 

[larmor]

How is NFLX relevant to TSLA discussion?

Netflix acts as a broker between entertainment industry and gets you to sit in front on the TV. Tesla acts as a broker between the sun and moves your butt....