Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[geneclean55]

today in Colorado if [hypothetically] a person were to buy a M3 for $35000... they would get a Fed credit of $7500 and a Colorado credit of $6000. that would make 38% of the vehicle price subsidized and the cost of the vehicle for the consumer $21500.

regardless of what anything at this point says... if Tesla leaks up into the 200k and then sells 500k in 2018 as is planned... then with the 50% for 2Q and 25% for 2Q formula you're describing... that would be an additional $3b in Federal subsidies and $2.5b in Colorado subsidies.

this is not going to happen. the laws will quickly change as these kinds of numbers would bankrupt Colorado and on the Federal side... if all manufacturers did this would be in the many 10s of billions.

also... these credits are only useful for Colorado residents that have a tax bill of greater than $13500... I'd guess that a typical salary based income of about $75k to $80k would be required to take full advantage of these credits.

so not only would quickly dumping 500k in 4 quarters after the tax credit went away be not in the nature of the credits... the credits themselves are only available to those that make 50% more than the median income in the US.

and even worse... TODAY... the only people benefiting from these tax credits are again... people making significantly more than the standard US household... and those that can afford a Tesla starting at $70k... which requires even a much higher income.

this is taking from the poor and giving to the rich. this whole setup has been truly disgusting. there should have been a $40k vehicle price cap on eligibility for the credit as well as an income based cap of $100k.

Yep, I am sure Hillary and the majority Democrat senate will be changing those laws so quick....you wouldn't believe it!

 

[myusername]

Yep, I am sure Hillary and the majority Democrat senate will be changing those laws so quick....you wouldn't believe it!

ok... so what you're saying is you think this is all a good thing?... using tax loopholes and dumping 100s of thousands of cars onto the market into credits that only the more wealthy in our country can make use of is a good thing?

it's funny how the morality based thinking behind EVs and Tesla basically says "save the planet"... and then this is somehow morally justified.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Tesla/SolarCity Merger Update: 3 Enormous Shareholders Could Decide Merger’s Fate -- The Motley Fool

Tesla/SolarCity Merger Update: 3 Enormous Shareholders Could Decide Merger’s Fate
These mutual fund companies hold big stakes in Tesla, and their ability to affect the outcome is magnified by whose shares won't be getting voted.

Travis Hoium
(TMFFlushDraw)
Oct 19, 2016 at 8:43AM

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Oil up again today. Many calling for 60.00 a barrel. This helps Tesla.

 

[geneclean55]

ok... so what you're saying is you think this is all a good thing?... using tax loopholes and dumping 100s of thousands of cars onto the market into credits that only the more wealthy in our country can make use of is a good thing?

it's funny how the morality based thinking behind EVs and Tesla basically says "save the planet"... and then this is somehow morally justified.

I am just addressing your assertion that laws will be rapidly changed, which I believe to be incorrect. I also think that shifting your response to try another angle is one component of being a troll.

 

[Drax7]

You've been around long enough to know better.

CASH IS KING.

In Q1 2013 GAAP was purely due to sale of ZEVs, and it did not hold SP back for a second. I remember bein amazed that there was virtually no "subsidy" talk back then.

Fast forward to 2016. Tesla is likely to be GAAP profitable without counting ZEVs. The additional $100MM or so due to ZEV would be icing on the cake, sorry, money in the bank.

You also should know that Tesla investment case is NOT based on ZEVs in any way, shape or form. I hope you were not suggesting it.

At the end of the day what would be highly relevant is that Tesla could have about $100MM more to grow their business.

You have done beautiful work, and cash is king, and we all appreciate
It highly. And we all look forward to your sharp insights. Fallenone
Unfortunately had to point out the devalued value of Zev and deflate
The number.

My point is that An efficient market will quickly discount away ZEV ,
So irrespective it will not matter very long.

 

[myusername]

I am just addressing your assertion that laws will be rapidly changed, which I believe to be incorrect. I also think that shifting your response to try another angle is one component of being a troll.

omg... get off the troll bandwagon people...

first... the states will change their laws... they can not afford this kind of subsidy.

second... your sarcastic response ending with an exclamation point suggests "awesome!"... so you can take a blind eye and say that's just business... but when you're stoked for your stock price for these reasons... then trying to change it to "trolling"... you are basically just avoiding the point.

do you think tax credits only available to the more wealthy in our country for vehicles out of the price range of normal US citizens should exist?

 

[everman]

It's also my sentiment that once the M3 is being delivered and people start seeing them on the roads, friends and neighbours get one, etc. Then the demand is going to go through the roof and the SP with it.

Anyone any idea when this new product announcement is due? I also through it would be AP2, but on reflection that doesn't strike me as a "new product".

The only way I can square AP 2.0 as a new product is to actually distinguish the Model S as significantly different, i.e. Autonomous-Ready Model S. Different product...?

 

[schonelucht]

I am just addressing your assertion that laws will be rapidly changed, which I believe to be incorrect. I also think that shifting your response to try another angle is one component of being a troll.

Is a quick extension of the federal credit, should Hillary be elected, equally unlikely? Or is it easier to extend a tax credit, politically?

 

[SBenson]

Folks, what time is the announcement, reveal or what ever that is?

 

[Yggdrasill]

The only way I can square AP 2.0 as a new product is to actually distinguish the Model S as significantly different, i.e. Autonomous-Ready Model S. Different product...?

I think AP 2.0 could be considered a new product if it is sufficiently improved. I guess we'll know in a few hours.

 

[vgrinshpun]

You have done beautiful work, and cash is king, and we all appreciate
It highly. And we all look forward to your sharp insights. Fallenone
Unfortunately had to point out the devalued value of Zev and deflate
The number.

My point is that An efficient market will quickly discount away ZEV ,
So irrespective it will not matter very long.

Better check your facts.

My number was the same from the moment I opined on the issue. Fallenone did not deflate my number because it was conservative to begin with.

As for an efficient market it surely did not do it's magic in 2013, when the profitability was due to sale of ZEVs.

And I certainly hope it WILL DO ITS MAGIC this time around, since Tesla most likely will be profitable even without counting ZEV.

Your opinion seem to be routed in the ideological beliefs, not based on facts.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well nothing's announced, likely to be announced more close to market close than to open I guess. Like previous cases.

 

[geneclean55]

Is a quick extension of the federal credit, should Hillary be elected, equally unlikely? Or is it easier to extend a tax credit, politically?

I couldn't say to be honest. But trying to remove that Federal law will be contested and unlikely, especially with the new Supreme court members in place.

 

[schonelucht]

BTW. For those who want to quantify the run out of the federal credit, I want to highlight this excellent spreadsheet from @Troy that basically summarizes everything we know about past and future deliveries in the US. Although, with Tesla saying they will deliver all current reservations holders (+370k) in the first 12 months, I think the ramp up as projected in the sheet is a bit too conservative (175k). For example a ramp up of 10k/50k/80k/100k per quarter starting 2017Q3 seems more in line with communication for the last 48 hours.

 

[Drax7]

Better check your facts.

My number was the same from the moment I opined on the issue. Fallenone did not deflate my number because it was conservative to begin with.

As for an efficient market it surely did not do it's magic in 2013, when the profitability was due to sale of ZEVs.

And I certainly hope it WILL DO ITS MAGIC this time around, since Tesla most likely will be profitable even without counting ZEV.

Your opinion seem to be routed in the ideological beliefs, not based on facts.

Nonsense

 

[vgrinshpun]

Nonsense

Very convincing argument.

 

[racer26]

Reading this post led me to check a bit on the tax credit specifics. This bit of them was quoted by Forbes.

Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period.

I'm not sure what the definition of phase-out period may be, but it sounds like it means the 4 quarters after Tesla has sold their 200,000th
EV. If this quote from the regs is correct, then buyers in the two quarters after reaching 200K will get $3750 credit and those in following 2 quarters will get $1875.

What is the rough consensus on when Tesla is likely to reach the 200K sold mark?

I had forgotten about the 25% section. My mistake, I'm Canadian, so the programs available to me are quite different. (They're rebates, not tax credits, and so you don't need the tax obligation to cover them.)

The way the US credit works, is when TSLA sells the 200k'th US-bound EV, they get the remainder of that quarter, plus the full next quarter at 100%. Then the phase-out period begins, and is 2Q at 50% and 2Q at 25%.

Tesla has already implied publically that they will game the numbers such that the 200k'th car is sold on the 1st day of a quarter. That means 2 full quarters at 100%, 2 more at 50% and 2 more at 25%. 6 quarters in which as many as 750k cars might qualify for the credit, if they can get the ramp right, and manipulate where they ship cars to.

Most people expect TSLA to sell its 200k'th US-bound car in 4Q17 or 1Q18.

 

[vgrinshpun]

As of 9:33am there were 1,583,803 shares available to short at Fidelity, interest continue to slide down, 7.255 today.

There were 1,330,153 shares available for shorting at Fidelity (as of 9:45am), interest continue to fall, 5.5% today.

 

[SBenson]

Folks, what time is the announcement, reveal or what ever that is?

I guess Elon being Elon, when he says Wednesday he means sometime before 1159PM Pacific Time. And then he will miss it by a few hours anyway. So...