Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MartinAustin]

The "Model 3 Part 2" is going to be more than just this. It'll probably be like one of Elon's "four-part trilogy" things... with the other reveals coming throughout the next 6 months.

Elon had to weigh two factors when deciding the timing of this hardware release. 1) adapting their standard software features (TACC, AEB etc.) to the new hardware before shipping, OR 2) shrinking forever the size of the fleet that has full self-driving capability, via the delay creating the software.

He obviously wanted to have as many cars with the new hardware as possible - long term. We can now say there are about 55,000 Teslas with no autopilot hardware, and maybe 135,000 cars with Autopilot 1.0 hardware. These numbers will be fixed for the rest of history and will become a small cornerstone of Tesla's production history that do not have the final sensor suite. Millions of cars will have the self-driving sensors.

This is a glowing testament to Elon's insistence on thinking about the long-term effects of company actions.

Dow Jones just used the headline "Tesla's 'new product': Self-driving hardware that won't work right away." So yeah, the press are trying to have as much fun at Tesla's expense as they can. Everyone always wants to poke fun at the folks at the top of the tree.

 

[Curt Renz]

How does that work?
I know that I license software (vs. own it), but if I have a Tesla and decide to use it for Uber or Lyft, I need to turn off the self-driving feature?
How do they enforce that? How do they even know that I am using it for an Uber transaction vs. ride hailing for friends?

The car would transmit to Tesla information about self-driving, trips and destinations suggesting the car is being used as a taxi. An undercover Tesla agent, private detective or policeman would phone Uber or Lyft for a pickup near the current location of the car, or attempt to hail it for a ride assuming there will be a way of signalling a robotic taxi. The jig would then be up.

 

[BobSk]

I'm in the same boat, purchased mine late last year, now my car is outdated technologically and visibly. Thanks Elon! All jokes aside, I love the progress. I just dislike the money I'm losing in the market with underwhelming events such as this one.

Your car is still an amazing car in every regard.

 

[Johan]

Upon further reflection, I take back what I stated regarding possible loss of sales. I now think the effect will be a wash.

Some people will defer purchase of Autopilot 2.0 Teslas until the software is ready. Others will now have reason to purchase or upgrade because they can be assured of having the latest features as they become available. I suspect these different forces will even out.

Kudos for being quick to change your estimate when thinking about the new information better. I think if you'll let it marinate some more I think you might go furhter down the path beyond it being "a wash" to a scenario where the announcement will be a net huge driver of sales and that the Osbourne effect is really quite small here (you have the hardware, the software just gets flipped on eventually, why wait?)

 

[MartinAustin]

The video that's about to be released will prevent much of the media claiming flat-out that it just doesn't work - since... the video shows the person isn't driving the car.

It will act as b-roll while the talking heads talk over the top of it with their summary of the new features.

Now... will the video be a Model S/X or a prototype Model 3 ? The latter would turn some heads

 

[Fallenone]

Love this FUD title:
Tesla’s ‘new product’: Self-driving hardware that won’t work

How is this FUD. Does the hardware work? It's pretty accurate based on current information.

 

[Cosmacelf]

please don't accept this announcement as indisputable truth... there is virtually zero reason to equip vehicles with fully autonomous hardware at this time... there are many potentially critical paths to overcome that will take many years... deploying level 5 features today makes absolutely no sense and in my opinion is being used for hype.

Well, that's just not true. Presumably Tesla will use the new hardware in each car to gather information to refine their self driving capabilities.

 

[myusername]

the stock was too low for a secondary... a tweet went out... a double down on they autonomous industry was delivered... and the typical hype cycle for Tesla continues to attempt to drive the stock... but quite frankly... this is too on the nose.

 

[Johan]

The video that's about to be released will prevent much of the media claiming flat-out that it just doesn't work - since... the video shows the person isn't driving the car.

It will act as b-roll while the talking heads talk over the top of it with their summary of the new features.

Now... will the video be a Model S/X or a prototype Model 3 ? The latter would turn some heads

I love the notion of super sceptics like CNBC or Fox News with airheads sitting around talking (did you notice they always talk in an agressive manor) negatively about Tesla (whatever they can come up with or try to spin) while in the background or often in the foreground runs a sexy video of a beutiful Model 3 driving in a city with no one in the car. Oh the irony of them doing all the free marketing for Tesla.

 

[Remus]

$8k is a lot of money.

If in two years it can serve as the copilot of my teenage daughters, I would not hesitate to pay double that.

 

[Johan]

How is this FUD. Does the hardware work? It's pretty accurate based on current information.

The hardware will work but the software won't be turned on until it's ready. For it to become ready it needs to be fed with a higher volume of real time data captured with the full sensor suite. Hence cars with all the hardware present and active must get on the road ASAP, and it's in everyone's interest (including buyers who long for autonomous driving level 5) to get cars out there to collect data.

 

[Fallenone]

OK I've finished venting.

When this new suit of hardware and software works, it would be fantastic. If Uber can't get to the same level before Tesla, Uber is doomed. When it works. Time unknown.

But still, I still think this is disappointing given the hype, and sacrificing (whether they were forced by the end of partnership with MBLY or not) currently available feature for something not working right now yet more expensive.

 

[Value Ev]

I'm amused that now fully 10% of your posts on this account consist of incorrectly accusing me of an ad hominem against you.

Did you crawl out from under a rock in the last 5 minutes? Elon said over an hour ago that tonight's announcement is what he previously referred to as M3 Part 2.

I am quoting you directly (see above) and if you can man up to what you said, then welcome to my ignore list.

 

[Yggdrasill]

the stock was too low for a secondary... a tweet went out... a double down on they autonomous industry was delivered... and the typical hype cycle for Tesla continues to attempt to drive the stock... but quite frankly... this is too on the nose.

Yes, Tesla decided to change their production line to allow for an entirely new autopilot hardware suite for the Model S and Model X, because the SP didn't go high enough for a cap raise... I don't think you understand the logistics of manufacturing cars, this has been months in the making. And is also why it wasn't extremely surprising.

 

[dakh]

...

How does that work?
I know that I license software (vs. own it), but if I have a Tesla and decide to use it for Uber or Lyft, I need to turn off the self-driving feature?
How do they enforce that? How do they even know that I am using it for an Uber transaction vs. ride hailing for friends?

This would be fairly easy to enforce. Uber and Lyft will be locked out of integrating with Tesla Network (or whatever name they'll end up using). To hook in they'd need to integrate their ride hail (demand side) with Tesla ride provider (supply side) and that won't happen or will happen but on Tesla's terms. There isn't any other ride hail service worth talking about so pretty much until we see one there simply isn't going to be anything on demand side that's big enough for Tesla to worry about.

 

[Johan]

I am quoting you directly (see above) and if you can man up to what you said, then welcome to my ignore list.

If everyone ignored you, and you ignored everyone then we wouldn't have a problem.

 

[racer26]

Its amazing to me that so many of the same outlets that like to complain Tesla released a "beta" autopilot and "killed" that guy in FL that wasn't paying attention to the broad side of a tractor trailer are now complaining that Tesla is being responsible and ensuring their new version is safe before unleashing it on public roads.

 

[P85DEE]

I'm relatively underwhelmed. I don't see the market reacting in any significantly (positive) way regarding this tomorrow. Perhaps with a little more color this could have been something. I don't think the average consumer or market maker will be moved by a few words stating "lower the financial cost of transportation for those who own a car and provide low-cost on-demand mobility for those who do not." /sigh. I hope I'm incorrect.


I'm a long term investor, however, as this is the short term thread, I also trade options short. This has been a let down. Edit: At least in terms of presentation.

I could not agree more.

 

[Fallenone]

The hardware will work but the software won't be turned on until it's ready. For it to become ready it needs to be fed with a higher volume of real time data captured with the full sensor suite. Hence cars with all the hardware present and active must get on the road ASAP, and it's in everyone's interest (including buyers who long for autonomous driving level 5) to get cars out there to collect data.

Doesn't change the fact that if I spend $5k or $8k now, I'm getting nothing until an unknown time.

 

[Value Ev]

...


This would be fairly easy to enforce. Uber and Lyft will be locked out of integrating with Tesla Network (or whatever name they'll end up using). To hook in they'd need to integrate their ride hail with Tesla ride provider and that won't happen or will happen but on Tesla's terms.

I am still not tracking how that works. Why do they have to integrate?

How does Tesla enforce me using the T-Network (trademark!) to pick up my mom and take her to the airport vs. using it to pick up an Uber customer and drop them at the airport?