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I have a model 3 reservation and I am not totally sure why...I may eventually be one of the people who abandon's a reservation, but it would be to get an AP 2.0 100D model S, with optional breakfast maker and Comfy lounger™ options.
Lol, I'm in kind of the same boat. I put two reservations in just in case. I've never been a fan of smaller vehicles, most likely I'll use my res to gift a car to my other halfs little sister and perhaps get one to play with the Tesla Network. Or I may simply pass my place in line to someone more eager.
The 20 day average SP is sitting at 203, which is probably why we've made a double top there.
For reference, the 50 day is at 208 and the 200 day is at 213. There's also the 215 cap raise level that will provide resistance. So, a lot of resistance not far above where we are now. If we can move above with volume, however, I feel quite good about a sustained increase in the SP.
For reference, the 50 day is at 208 and the 200 day is at 213. There's also the 215 cap raise level that will provide resistance. So, a lot of resistance not far above where we are now. If we can move above with volume, however, I feel quite good about a sustained increase in the SP.
I think it's madness that we are still at this price. Especially after the announcement yesterday. Honestly, okay the cars are cool. I can't wait for next week.
Not surprisingly, market sold this news. I sincerely think many people in this thread should go out of the bubble and try to learn what other people are thinking. The mast majority of Model 3 reservation holders I know of are not happy with yesterday's announcement because 1: the price; 2: skepticism towards the technology and not knowing when it will be fully ready; 3: very little info on Model 3. Many even felt they got tricked by Elon due to his tweet hours ago and thought it would be Model 3 focus but turned out not.
I think what saved us from dropping further is first, this is indeed a great progress for the long term; second, the video showing it's not entirely vaporware.
Remember, the majority of people are not that savvy in driver-less technology and would need time to understand yesterday's impact. The benefit may need a year or more (depending on when Tesla can really make it work, both tech-wise and regulation-wise) to start getting realized. In the short term, yesterday's event is another example of sub-par management of public's expectation.
I think what saved us from dropping further is first, this is indeed a great progress for the long term; second, the video showing it's not entirely vaporware.
Remember, the majority of people are not that savvy in driver-less technology and would need time to understand yesterday's impact. The benefit may need a year or more (depending on when Tesla can really make it work, both tech-wise and regulation-wise) to start getting realized. In the short term, yesterday's event is another example of sub-par management of public's expectation.
I bet you're not the only one ; )
Once people believe that Teslas with AP 2 will be able to self-drive safely years ahead of the competition, the pre-orders for this vehicle will dwarf the 400,000 number. This car will mean freedom to people in their 80s and 90s who lack the ability to safely drive on their own any more. These are people who likely would never have considered buying an EV if it weren't for the self-driving capabilities. As the number of pre-orders grows and the wait time increases, we will see a spill-over effect into Model S and Model X because (1) these vehicles are readily available and (2) a U.S. buyer can still guarantee the $7500 federal tax credit (if their income allows). Your second Model 3 could be worth quite a bit more than purchase price at the time you accept delivery, an investment certainly worth tying up $1000 for a year or two. If you have an older parent like I do, you might find that the second Model 3 has an essential job ahead of it. Good show.
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Blown away by the video this morning. I bought my first Model S in early 2013. Upgraded to P85D in May 2015. I thought I would keep this second one a long time - until self driving. Now Elon has to leap frog the world by 10 years and make such a car available now. Are you kidding me!! Elon, I don't have this much money. I can't keep buying new cars every 2 years. The sad thing is, Teslas get better so fast that a 3 year lease is even too long! My God man, stop torturing those of us that love tech like this! As soon as the Model S gets self opening front doors like the Model X, I'm upgrading again....
P.S - I think I need to reserve a second Model 3 now. Pre-orders probably take a HUGE increase today!
P.S - I think I need to reserve a second Model 3 now. Pre-orders probably take a HUGE increase today!
I couldn't disagree with you more. the people I know who have put $$ down for a 3 are very excited. this is demonstration of the technical superiority and lead for tesla to them
Except how would you refuel your ICE car autonomously? Who would develop that technology, your local gas station? Lol!
3Victoria
Active Member
We are still getting what was promised in Part 1. Base car didn't and doesn't include AP, no change there. At the very least, AP will include AP1.0 functionality, so as good as if not better. I fully expect Model 3 pricing for AP to be less than the S/X. Not really any bad news here.
The analysts just see promises, and sell on the uncertainty. They will need to cogitate and get input from their closest experts before this sinks in. So, short-term may not be good, but long-term is great.
The analysts just see promises, and sell on the uncertainty. They will need to cogitate and get input from their closest experts before this sinks in. So, short-term may not be good, but long-term is great.
Yes I fully agree this demonstrates Tesla's superiority in technology, no arguments here, and I am very happy about it. But not everyone, or maybe even the majority, understand this. Long term, super good. Short term, it doesn't mean a lot to a lot of people.
I think that's a fair characterization. Could also be said for electric cars and especially TE, which I have found generates a lot of blank stares when I try to explain it to people.
Tesla has always been in it for the long haul and is generally several steps ahead of the market, the public and potential competitors, which is all good IMO.
Interesting strawman you are burning down here. I don't recall a single person in this thread saying this news would significantly effect stock price to the positive in the short term, or that it would go up directly following the announcement. When it was first announced on here, the general consensus in this thread was that it was A/P2 / HUD related and it would have negligible impact on short term stock price.
What should have they done differently that would have made a big difference in your opinion?
Indeed, the market needs time to be educated about the significance of these things. And Tesla also needs to deliver on these promises (TE I'm looking at you). And since this is the short term thread, I am focusing more on the short term discussion.
I do see quite a few today expressing confusion about the price action (going down).
Not throwing out "Model 3 part 2" tweet.
Fair enough. Re TE, I would note that on the Q2 earnings call in early August, Elon made two very bold, short-term predictions, one about autonomy, one about TE.
Re autonomy: "All I'd say is that full autonomy is going to come a hell of a lot faster than anyone thinks it will. And I think what we've got under development is going to blow people's minds. It blows my mind."
Re TE: "We've got some next-generation technology and we're going to split off that production line. So it's going to be heavily concentrated in Q4 and probably even [more] heavily in November and December. But I think it's going to be really exciting when people see it. So, that's why I expect kind of exponential growth from there. I think it's really going to go ballistic."
Elon Musk: Full Autonomy Is Coming Sooner Than Anyone Expects—and It Will ‘Blow People’s Minds’
I think most people discounted or ignored both of these statements. I say, one down, one to go.
3Victoria
Active Member
But that was Part 2 --- you just misinterpreted what part 2 would contain. You were thinking of Part 3, perhaps?
dennis
Model S Plaid
So try out these numbers. 500K cars in 2019 @ 50K ASP = $25B or a 50+% CAGR on $7B-$8B in 2016.
Name me all the tech companies that have exceeded 50% growth rate going from $7B to $25B. And if you think they won't get to 500K cars in 2019 bear in mind that I didn't include any revenue for TE or solar in projecting 50% revenue growth.
I agree that the sell on the news was easy to predict (I called 195 last night), but I don't understand anything else you said.
How could M3 res holders be mad at this news? First, it doesn't contradict anything previously released by Elon - full autonomy hardware would ship with the car, ride sharing per Master Plan II, etc. They are mad about the price? First we don't even know the Model 3 AP pricing, but assuming it's the same, how could they possibly complain? Were they expecting the functionality to be free? Did they honestly expect that increasing the hardware by a factor of 5 would come at no additional cost to the current $3k AP price? Do they understand that the software and R&D is quite expensive and needs to be recovered via option pricing?
You can say there's uncertainty re: when the software will be ready, but Elon did all he can on this front. He very clearly laid out his timeline. They might not meet it, but what else can he do in this regard except give his honest best guess?
Very little info on Model 3 - this was an AP event and confirmation that M3 would have the same stuff as S/X. They honestly would have preferred a peek inside at the interior over full autonomy details? Also, Elon clearly said there would be a part 3 to the M3 reveal, so they shouldn't feel they've been ignored either.
Going back to SP, though we have sell on the news now, I think it will become clear very soon that S/X margins have just been juiced significantly. The car just became 5k more expensive and the additional hardware costs are nowhere near 5k (plus the data they are gathering from that hardware is infinitely more valuable than the cost of the hardware itself). This will undoubtedly make it into the ER margin guidance. It's also like the 60/75 debate (except more batteries are quite a bit more expensive than more cameras/sensors) in that it doesn't really matter if someone selects the AP option - it's just revenue now from selecting the option or revenue later (once the buyer decides to activate the features at a premium price later when the features are fully available or Tesla activates the feature after taking the car back as a CPO).
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