Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Alketi]

Thanks. Misses the intro, and first few questions.

Found it here:
Mega File Upload - Tesla October 19th 2016 Autopilot 2.0 Conference Call.mp4

 

[Ulmo]

Found it here:
Mega File Upload - Tesla October 19th 2016 Autopilot 2.0 Conference Call.mp4

Excellent! Grabbed! Now I can make accurate quotes.

 

[dmckinstry]

I still remember the people telling that speech recognition could reach near 100 % accuracy some day (much easier than autonomous driving). What have they reached? For a car that drives completely autonomous you would need 99,99999 % even under worse conditions (bad light / rain, snow, ...).

People don't even have 100% speech recognition capability, and never will.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Anyone else notice that the high amperage (72A) charger can now be enabled after delivery for $1900? Perhaps it's been there for a while and I missed it, either way this means that all cars now have the 72A hardware.

 

[TMSE]

I love yesterday's announcement on so many levels. But I don't think we'll get any significant analyst upgrades for quite a while (as in many months). Why? The dark cloud of SCTY hangs over Tesla, and I don't think the cloud will leave anytime soon. I hope I'm wrong though.

I think the dark clouds get cleared one by one after the following events:
1) Earnings Call on 26th Oct
2) Solar Roof reveal on 28th Oct
3) Tesla+SolarCity financials explanations on 1st Nov.

I expect a massive year end rally in Nov and Dec.

 

[stealthology]

Thats... one of the better reports I've seen on this. Fairly balanced, tells the facts without delving too much into the FUD beyond saying that Elon's set himself another crazy deadline to meet, which... well. I think we can all agree its a pretty ambitious timeline, though I don't consider it impossible.

I'd like to add that Elon said he wants to show a demonstration. He's not saying he expects level 5 autonomy by the end of next year in customer cars. Who knows how that demonstration will be carried out.

 

[sundaymorning]

Actually, they are more likely to hate Tesla because the partiers were smoking in the car, drinking, puking and leaving used condoms in the ashtray.

Of course you can charge the people extra for that, but then it is always the "it wasn't me, it was like that when I got into the car" excuse.

Maybe they can have the automatic charging snake also disinfect the car between uses.

[/QUOTE]

I guess you've never heard about an invention called the Surveillance Camera. You can test how well it works by going to a jewelry store, pretend to steal something and see if the "it wasn't me" excuse will work.

 

[stealthology]

The next couple weeks will be very interesting:

• 10/26: Earnings call
• 10/28: Solar roof / Powerwall 2.0 demonstration
• 11/1: Further financial information on the merger

You better be damn certain Elon is going to do his best to make sure each of these days will be positives for his share price. He needs Model 3's on the road ASAP.

 

[sundaymorning]

At what point does it make more sense to just build and ride share the cars rather then sell them and share the ride share profits? You could go right to that but it would require more capital. If they where already apple and had piles of cash to burn then maybe but doesn't it make more sense to start off having customers front the initial capital?

Ride share customers will eventually buy a tesla. I'm sure of this.

 

[BobSk]

Energy:
Autonomous energy delivery to your home battery in case it is low, using vehicle2home technology with either of these vehicles. (supercharger -> off the grid homes home battery)

Great idea. Off grid will be practical with this backup.

 

[FredTMC]

Ride share customers will eventually buy a tesla. I'm sure of this.

With a current order book of arguably 500k tesla's, is there anyone that Isn't buying a tesla?! Love it...

 

[KLC13]

Just as an aside from all the current events, is anyone tracking progress on the vin assignments for Q4? Are there indications of us being on track?

I am fairly confident that Q3 results and the upcoming announcements will be positive for the SP, but dont want to lose sight of Q4 progress. We need the same number of deliveries for Q4 as Q3, but minus all the discounts. So I really hope we are on track to meet the annual guidance. Please update if anyone has info on it.

 

[sundaymorning]

With a current order book of arguably 500k tesla's, is there anyone that Isn't buying a tesla?! Love it...

Somehow I missed this news, has the 500,000 number been confirmed recently?

 

[Ulmo]

I agree. During the Q&A (link

timepoint 2:52 first question, thanks other poster), Elon said Tesla's going to let users' insurance handle it (with exception of something endemic to their design).

I wrote that, but the file got taken down. I'll transcribe the conversation from a secondary download I just got from a poster on another thread. Ok, here goes. Transcribing is always tedious ...

I'm going to color the various people, and italics the logistics text and errant utterances (such as (the usual) pauses in thought like "umm", and especially the stuttering from Elon), and ^ means an uptalking period or just uptalking without period, in context. I use {} as brackets [] because of BB code interfering, where I insert my own logistics or interpretations. I have Elon Musk as blue, narrator as black, and questioners with successive assigned colors. The seconds marker is the point in the file called "Tesla October 19th 2016 Autopilot 2.0 Conference Call.mp4" (shasum d108c43b9d5e4e86836791dacf8ea823b4f7fa9f md5 182eea575bf489b36ab45041b7490c7a) as depicted by mplayer on my iMac.

{Elon Musk 166s} {...} I think pretty huge news^ Umm yeah with that we can go into questions.

{174.8s Narrator} Ok, our first question is from Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield, from Transport Evolved LLC; your microphone is now open^

{181.5s clears throat} Yeah, Good Evening, Elon, um, I have got a, I've got two questions; (I don't know if you're in the place to answer two, so please pick one if not^){:}

{192s} Um Autopilot's proven very reliable thus far with you know minimal im e- problems with uhh with its safety, but I'm asking if Tesla will be offering indemnity against crashes involving fully autonomous autopilot mode in much the same way as Volvo is promising to do when Level 5 autonomy is activated on your vehicles.

{Someone (Elon?) finishes drink audibly; 216.4s} Umm, no{;} I think that would be up to the individual's insurance; I mean, just like it's, you know, umm, if, if, if it's, if it's something endemic to our design^, certainly we would take uh responsibility for that, umm,{.} But, uhh, you know, I think, once you view sort of autonomous cars like like an elevator in a building, um, does does Otis take responsibility for for all the elevators around the world? No^, they don't{.} Umm, uh so uh, you know if, um what what really matters at at the end of the day here is what is the absolute safety uh level.

{umm} One of the things uhh One of the things I should mention that frankly has been um quite quite disturbing to me is the degree of media coverage of autopilot uh eh crashes which is basically almost none^, uh relative to the paucity of media coverage of the 1.2 million people that die every year in manual crashes{,} is something that I think, uhhhhh, does not reflect well upon the media. It really doesn't. Umm because, and and and you really need to think carefully about this{,} because if in writing some article that's negative{,} you effectively dissuade people from using autonomous vehicle{s}, you're killing people. {291.8s}

{291.8s Extremely long silence enough for everyone to not say anything at all. 296.8s}

{296.8s} Next question.

{298.5s Narrator} As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please uh put your hand up in the uh in the queue^
Our next question comes from Jack Stewart from Wired^: Your line is now open^

 

[andrewt3000]

Because, and and and you really need to think carefully about this because if in writing some article that's negative{,} you effectively dissuade people from using autonomous vehicle{s}, you're killing people.

Journalist have this sense of nobility... they actually do protect the public and keep companies honest... and there have been a lot of big stories about defective vehicles... like ralph nader and the pinto... takata airbags atm. he really turned the tables on them by appealing to one of their biggest internal motivations.

 

[FredTMC]

Somehow I missed this news, has the 500,000 number been confirmed recently?

Nope.

 

[MP3Mike]

Anyone else notice that the high amperage (72A) charger can now be enabled after delivery for $1900? Perhaps it's been there for a while and I missed it, either way this means that all cars now have the 72A hardware.

We have it on good authority that they originally put software limited 72A chargers in all cars, but later changed to installing 48A chargers unless you paid for the upgrade. But they will still swap your charger out for $1,900.

 

[paulch]

Somehow I missed this news, has the 500,000 number been confirmed recently?

I think the 500,000 estimation is based on Elon's twitter that: "This is because the first 12 months of production are sold out". assume the production of model 3 for 2018 is 500,000.

 

[Value Ev]

I guess you've never heard about an invention called the Surveillance Camera. You can test how well it works by going to a jewelry store, pretend to steal something and see if the "it wasn't me" excuse will work.[/QUOTE]

Funny.
I guess you never heard of a condom wrapper that could cover the security camera lense

If a person threw up in that jewelry store you spoke of would they be charged?

Ok. So let's say they video tape you throwing up, having sex, and smoking in the car. How much of a fine would they have to pay for you to be happy with their use of the car?

Would a sick person get charged for sneezing and coughing in your car? For throwing up?

Or a kid coming from soccer practice with muddy cleats? Or a student with a pen sticking out of their back pocket that puts a hole in your seat? Would the camera catch that and how much does that cost them?

 

[racer26]

I'd like to add that Elon said he wants to show a demonstration. He's not saying he expects level 5 autonomy by the end of next year in customer cars. Who knows how that demonstration will be carried out.

He said they expect to be launching bits of the full autonomy suite every couple months through 2017.

Also said information about Tesla Network next year. I suspect they're expecting TN to go live in late 2017/early 2018 in jurisdictions that allow it.