Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Gerardf]

I think the 500,000 estimation is based on Elon's twitter that: "This is because the first 12 months of production are sold out". assume the production of model 3 for 2018 is 500,000.

IIRC the source Tesla is store employees as was mentioned in some comments on reddit :
So, what ARE the current numbers of Model 3 pre-orders at? • /r/teslamotors

Anyway, 500k is not confirmed, just a rumour.

 

[Value Ev]

Journalist have this sense of nobility... they actually do protect the public and keep companies honest... and there have been a lot of big stories about defective vehicles... like ralph nader and the pinto... takata airbags atm. he really turned the tables on them by appealing to one of their biggest internal motivations.

Nader succeeded despite the journalists, not because of them. As an activist he wrote a book because the journalists were not doing it.

As for the Pinto, The "journalism" joke is how the journalists extrapolated that to show that other Fords could explode when hit from behind. High Downs reported on it. They failed to mention that the cars exploded because there was an incendiary device under it.

And then there was the keep rollover joke

Or the exploding truck tire rim story from 60 minutes. Only happens after they shaved off 70 percent of the rim.

And of course the journalism brilliance of the audi 5000 stories.

That is some level of nobility and public service there.

There should be a follow up to " If it bleeds, it leads". If it doesn't bleed, make it bleed. But make sure the camera is rolling.

 

[30seconds]

So to recap: (updates from RobStark)

Since the Model S started to ship 4 years ago:
* All Wheel Drive
* Up to 315miles range
* Up to 7 seating
* > 100MPGe
* All Wheel Drive
* Will beat a Lambo 0-60 and in the 1/4 mile
* MotorTrend car of the Year
* Perfect Consumer Report Score
* Cross-country supercharger network
* Most advanced autopilot available (by a mile)

Competitors available today:
* Up to 124miles with the i3

Did I miss something?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Journalist have this sense of nobility... they actually do protect the public and keep companies honest... and there have been a lot of big stories about defective vehicles... like ralph nader and the pinto... takata airbags atm. he really turned the tables on them by appealing to one of their biggest internal motivations.

Nope sorry. That was the past where they do actual research and cross check facts. Today they are all bloggers and first to clickbate fictional stories. One thing Trump has right is the media is so dishonest.

 

[sundaymorning]

I guess you've never heard about an invention called the Surveillance Camera. You can test how well it works by going to a jewelry store, pretend to steal something and see if the "it wasn't me" excuse will work.

Funny.
I guess you never heard of a condom wrapper that could cover the security camera lense

If a person threw up in that jewelry store you spoke of would they be charged?

Ok. So let's say they video tape you throwing up, having sex, and smoking in the car. How much of a fine would they have to pay for you to be happy with their use of the car?

Would a sick person get charged for sneezing and coughing in your car? For throwing up?

Or a kid coming from soccer practice with muddy cleats? Or a student with a pen sticking out of their back pocket that puts a hole in your seat? Would the camera catch that and how much does that cost them?[/QUOTE]

So the surveillance camera can't see who put covered the lens? Oh my, which 3rd world country did you buy your camera from? I guess Uner must be going out of business due to all these kids throwing up and scratching people's leather.

 

[RobStark]

P100D is 315 miles of EPA Range.

i3 33 kWh BEV has up to 124 miles of EPA range.

 

[mmd]

So what was today's price action about? Why down, then up, then down? Or is that a rhetorical question?

Probably Brian Johnson's note started the downtrend in the afternoon. Just a guess.
Why Tesla’s Autonomous Car is Bad News For Its Stock

While we appreciate that the new hardware may in fact be capable of Level 5 autonomy, it remains to be seen how quickly Tesla’s software can be validated to obtain regulatory approval for even ADAS (which has been disabled) much less Level 5 (a cross-country demo isn’t expected until the end of 2017), and at what cost to Tesla (we believe hardware costs are in the $1-2k range). With higher upfront costs combined with potentially lower take rates for unproven options packages (core ADAS functionality priced at $6k, full self-driving priced at $10k), gross margin could get hit. While Tesla will be drawing on hardware from other vendors, it will be writing its own software, with Elon noting that Tesla would not use any third-party software. This does not come as much surprise given the push Tesla has made to bulk up its software team (including well-known chip architect Jim Keller). That said, Tesla will need to accumulate millions of miles of real-world driving data in order for the system to be validated, and even then we’re not sure it will be able to handle the corner cases that end-to-end black-box approaches may have difficulty with.

 

[30seconds]

Funny.
I guess you never heard of a condom wrapper that could cover the security camera lense

If a person threw up in that jewelry store you spoke of would they be charged?

Ok. So let's say they video tape you throwing up, having sex, and smoking in the car. How much of a fine would they have to pay for you to be happy with their use of the car?

Would a sick person get charged for sneezing and coughing in your car? For throwing up?

Or a kid coming from soccer practice with muddy cleats? Or a student with a pen sticking out of their back pocket that puts a hole in your seat? Would the camera catch that and how much does that cost them?

So the surveillance camera can't see who put covered the lens? Oh my, which 3rd world country did you buy your camera from? I guess Uner must be going out of business due to all these kids throwing up and scratching people's leather.[/QUOTE]

Ever hear of AirBnB?

 

[mmd]

So to recap: (updates from RobStark)
Competitors available today:
* Up to 124miles with the i3

Did I miss something?

In Europe, 2017 Renault Zoe with 41 kwh battery and 400 km(248 mi) range is on sale since October 1st.
New 2017 Renault ZOE ZE 40: 400 km Range*, 41 kWh Battery

Within next 2-4 months, Chevy Bolt and may be the new Volkswagen e-golf with 124 EPA miles. 2017 Nissan Leaf may 130 miles epa.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/07/a...ris-as-electric-cars-steal-the-show.html?_r=0

But at next month’s Los Angeles Auto Show, Volkswagen plans to introduce a new e-Golf, with a range the company says exceeds 124 miles, measured using the Environmental Protection Agency’s test protocols.

 

[andrewt3000]

Do you guys think the pre-ordering self-driving will be a significant source of revenue?

If they sell 100k cars over next 12 months, and 1/3 get self driving that is an extra $100M.... ($3,000 x 33,333 vehicles)

do we have any idea about the additional costs? how much are the cameras? How many NVidia Titans will be in the vehicles?

 

[Xpert]

Probably Brian Johnson's note started the downtrend in the afternoon. Just a guess.
Why Tesla’s Autonomous Car is Bad News For Its Stock

Nonsense doubts. AP1 is proven, AP2 is an improvement on top of AP1, with million miles driven. All headed by a genius who's a rocket scientist with ships going to Mars in a couple years. It's only a matter of a couple of months to collect enough safety data to pass required regulations.

 

[MP3Mike]

Do you guys think the pre-ordering self-driving will be a significant source of revenue?

If they sell 100k cars over next 12 months, and 1/3 get self driving that is an extra $100M.... ($3,000 x 33,333 vehicles)

do we have any idea about the additional costs? how much are the cameras? How many NVidia Titans will be in the vehicles?

There will be no additional costs. All of the cameras and GPU(s) will be in every car they make now regardless of what you order. The only difference will be what is enabled in the software.

 

[trils0n]

Why Tesla’s Autonomous Car is Bad News For Its Stock

Odd little note from Barclays.

Low take rate on unproven options? Historically Tesla customers purchase nicely optioned cars. Just need to look at average selling price (always >90k) compared to base price (between 66k and mid to high 70s). So why would Tesla customers be resistant to new tech? Isn't that essentially the opposite of Tesla's customer base? Tesla customers want to be on the cutting edge, they are the early adopters and tech enthusiasts. Tesla's entire brand is new and known for pushing the tech envelope. They don't have a storied hundred+ year history to fall back on. Plus, the approach Tesla is taking with their new self-driving suite was at least partially validated by their success with Autopilot -- it shipped with just hardware, and software was gradually added via software updates as data was gathered. Exactly the same process for the new suite. Except Tesla is now making 20k+ cars per quarter, and all will have more robust sensors that will gather millions of miles of higher quality data much quicker than the original AP.

 

[schonelucht]

Do you guys think the pre-ordering self-driving will be a significant source of revenue?

Yes, the problem from a profitability/revenu side is that they can't recognise it unless they deliver the goods. Ie, until all of it actually works. And full autonomy is quite the hard binary thing. Either a car is autonomous, or it isn't. So it may be quite a while that they have to carry that deferral. Certainly way after the start of Model 3 deliveries, at which point Model S/X deferred revenue becomes a rounding error. But it does help with cash flow though.

 

[larmor]

Probably Brian Johnson's note started the downtrend in the afternoon. Just a guess.
Why Tesla’s Autonomous Car is Bad News For Its Stock

Because other startups have been so keen to bow to regulations, aka uber, etc, while tesla remains deferential to regulatory standards. And TM starts with 222 million miles of data that can be fed into an ai engine and provided the cars made finite data observations, this can be correlated to very fine detailed maps, etc... We know this last part was all ready told to us previously.

 

[mmd]

Does anyone know, if MobileEye is completely out of the new AP? I think, there were some Nvidia GPUs even in the old AP, along with MobileEye HW and SW. Now, is it all Nvidia chips plus Tesla HW/SW? Or is any MobileEye component going to be there as well?

 

[Xpert]

Anybody here working on autonomous driving and AI?
I would appreciate your opinion on what percentage of the population is able to understand what Tesla is currently doing with AI and self driving tech.
Thanks in advance.

I made an autonomous Mars rover years ago in college using a couple of sonar sensors front/back. But thats probably irrelevant to your question, most people I know have no clue about tesla except car enthusiasts.

 

[Turing]

In Europe, 2017 Renault Zoe with 41 kwh battery and 400 km(248 mi) range is on sale since October 1st.
New 2017 Renault ZOE ZE 40: 400 km Range*, 41 kWh Battery

From the article, " Renault notes an expected real world range of ~300 km (186 miles)." EPA range would likely be even less.

 

[RobStark]

most people I know have no clue about tesla except car enthusiasts.

Everyone I know is a Tesla expert.

 

[Ulmo]

Journalist have this sense of nobility... they actually do protect the public and keep companies honest... and there have been a lot of big stories about defective vehicles... like ralph nader and the pinto... takata airbags atm. he really turned the tables on them by appealing to one of their biggest internal motivations.

Yes, and I think it's both healthy and unhealthy, in that it gets them to think of both sides of an issue and the effect their publications have on it, as well as the possible ramifications of inhibiting the feeling of freedom in one's speech if considering the effect. One thing journalists can consider is looking with a properly probability weighted view of various sides of a story, as well as the various properly weighted middles. If journalism is a least-cost basis approach to information, then the question becomes where do the resources for this more accurate journalism come from? Less articles? Less something? I don't mine Elon calling them out, as long as the ends don't justify any means. However, we have to look at both sides: the positive outcome of using automation and the positives of having personal control.

I know from owning TSLA stock, that the hit pieces against "AutoPilot" have been very damaging to my portfolio, so I have my own personal understanding of the disdain for the lies of the hit pieces. I think as someone trying to advance a technology, though, Elon has even more of an interest in making certain those lies don't take hold, since he's trying to implement the widespread use of the technology, in addition to the money making aspects of it (which are slightly different for his portfolio than mine).