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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Late to the party. Is NO ONE going to discuss that he mentioned the "Elon's velvet Jacket" leaker?

Someone shouted something, about his sweater I guess, and he says "yeah no fuzzy jacket for me". That was not a natural response for that.

RIP "Elon's fuzzy jacket". In a shallow grave...

I don't think that is an RIP, I took that as a tip of the hat to the reddit poster.
 
New detail on Electrek (did I miss it during the presentation or did they get extra info?): the new PowerWall includes an inverter for $5500!!! That is a very big news item.

Update: this might be a mistake by Electrek because the Solar City website shows a diagram with a separate solar inverter. On the other hand, hopefully the extra inverter is just for additional solar power above what the powerwall inverter can provide.

Update 2: the new Tesla web page is up and confirms the built-in inverter. Tesla Powerwall
 
Yay something I can confidently comment upon.
Those tiles look amazing.

Concerns about venting/pipes/chimneys etc are a non issue. The solution would be the same as any existing roof with flashings and whatnot.
I suspect they will make solar and non solar tiles for all the roof styles (like the Tuscan glass) where any pieces you need to trim to fit into an area (against a wall or around a pipe) would not contain solar cells. These non active tiles would also be used in areas the sun does not hit the roof (save money, keep the look).

When can I start installing these!? Well done Solarcity.

edit -(I would be shocked if they had not worked with professional installers in designing this product)
 
The idea of solar roof seems a bit weird to me. There are only certain portions of the roof that get optimal sunlight, like the south side. The back side of my home is always under shade of some trees, but front is OK. So, why would anyone make the entire roof solar?

Secondly, how long will these last? Tile roofs typically last 50-100 years, concrete tiles 50 years, shingles 20 years. If the cost is compared to tile roof, will they also last as long as tile roofs?

Thirdly, the repairability. A tile breaks, any roofer can come replace it easily. I have done some myself. Wonder how that works here. So workers should be able to walk on these. Was walking on the panels demonstrated?

The fourth problem is, if this is as efficient as regular panels, that means massive oversizing. Only 10% (or less) of my roof has solar, and that is good enough for my electricity needs. If I will over produce, I wlil have to sell the excess at 4c/kwh to PG&E. Any additional cost of the roof won't make sense at such low payouts.
 
And that opportunity cost is reflected in the fully diluted earnings per share number that all companies publish anyways.

Except for two minor details:
!. Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding (FDSO) only includes the options that had vested and were fully exercisable in the relevant reporting period, FDSO does not count Any options outstanding which may vest after the relevant reporting period.
2. When earnings are negative, "fully diluted earnings per share" are identical to the EPS calculated on the basis of un-diluted shares outstanding; and disregards ALL options, whether currently exercisable or those may vest in the future with the lapse of time or the achievement of some performance criterion. he company stands alone as an entity and its financial statements should reflect how that entity operates.

In addition, very few public companies raise money through equity offerings every year.

Tesla must be an exception:
-the IPO was late June 2010
-the 1st follow-on offering was about 11 months later in May 2011
-the 2nd follow-on offering was about 15 months later in Sept 2012
-the 3rd follow-on offering was about 8 months later in May 2013
-the 4th follow-on offering was about 25 months later in August 2015
-the 5th follow-on/secondary offering was about 9 months later in May 2016 (so the average is about every 14 months)
-the 6th follow-on offering will be???? (my guess is less than 12 months since the prior one)

Within the time-frame of those 5 follow-on equity offerings there were three convertible note offerings totaling $2.9 billion which also have a dilutive potential (when earnings are positive). More than 2/3 rds of the 2018 notes have been converted early, adding somewhere between 500K AND 1.5 MM to the shares outstanding, after repaying the principal with cash.

If you truly think there is no cost to either the corporation or its shareholders from stock based compensation, take another look at the secondary in May 2016. Elon sold nearly 2.8 million shares for $215/ share--that's $600 million of shares the market would have absorbed.
 
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Incredible! Beautiful roofs! I'm sure the panels aren't as efficient as a standard panel, but because the entire roof is covered, they don't need to be. Given the fact that these roofs are supposed to cost less than a standard roof + utility power, this is a no brainer. You would have to be an idiot to ever buy a standard roof again! How do we short standard roof tile manufacturers on Monday? They are going to have tons of inventory nobody wants now. I can really see that 1T valuation now. Thank you Elon!!! :)
 
The idea of solar roof seems a bit weird to me. There are only certain portions of the roof that get optimal sunlight, like the south side. The back side of my home is always under shade of some trees, but front is OK. So, why would anyone make the entire roof solar?

Secondly, how long will these last? Tile roofs typically last 50-100 years, concrete tiles 50 years, shingles 20 years. If the cost is compared to tile roof, will they also last as long as tile roofs?

Thirdly, the repairability. A tile breaks, any roofer can come replace it easily. I have done some myself. Wonder how that works here. So workers should be able to walk on these. Was walking on the panels demonstrated?

The fourth problem is, if this is as efficient as regular panels, that means massive oversizing. Only 10% (or less) of my roof has solar, and that is good enough for my electricity needs. If I will over produce, I wlil have to sell the excess at 4c/kwh to PG&E. Any additional cost of the roof won't make sense at such low payouts.

I'm certain that there will be non-active versions of the tiles (for doing edges and other places you might need to cut a tile). If an area of roof is always shaded, simply use non-active tiles there.

Elon said that it is more durable than comparable roofs, possibly lasting 2-3 times longer.

People walk on roofs, I'm certain that these will withstand similar treatment without issue. Replacing a tile is likely a simple thing: I can't imagine the interconnections on these are complex enough to require an electrician to do it.

Again, non-active tiles. I'm certain that the installation team will properly size the roof to your needs. Additionally, it has been billed with its cost being comparable to buying a regular roof and the power to run your house. Why care what the efficiency is as long as its good enough to do the job for an acceptable cost?
 
so if I buy a Powerwall for $5500 and have a solar roof installed... then it would take me 4 years to recoup that cost... so the question would be... how long does the battery last?

I believe Powerwall carries a 10 year warranty on their batteries. Regardless, Elon always looks after the customer. He wouldn't make a product just to have it break before it more than paid for itself. So feel free to dump this whole line of questioning into the toilet as no more than mouse nuts.
 
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