Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Seesaw]

Anybody has any guess on how many reservations will be for powerwall 2?

Just a wild unbridled guess: If Tesla received 2 million reservations for PW2, that is $1 Billion in cash flow right there at $500 per reservation. That is much better than a cap raise!

2 million PW2 units at 14kwh each, require about 28 Gwh in battery cells. I am not sure how much GF1 is expected to produce in 2017. Any guess?

I'm not sure. I think it was a mistake combining PW2 in the same launch as the Tesla roof, the PW2 has now been dwarfed by the attention the merger and roof has received

 

[sundaymorning]

I am not sure how much GF1 is expected to produce in 2017. Any guess?

I was told that production will start in December, so shipments in January.

 

[everman]

Does anyone else see the Model X design page down at the moment?

Order a Tesla Model X | Tesla

 

[sundaymorning]

And that's why I miss Andrea James. Because she took the time to research her subject and understand it before she opened her mouth or put it to paper. Not Elon's fault everyone else sucks at their job.

I don't think Elon forgets that analysts don't think like him. He's acknowledged several times where their interests lay, while his are of a different kind. I suspect he's trying to enlighten them and is continually left scratching his head why they're not bright enough to get it. How much further can he dumb it down for them?

I have no fears concerning Tesla, TSLA, Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, etc... I've seen more than enough to know they'll do it or die trying. I can back that all day long, every day.

Today was super noisy and I was reminded of the many other occasions of such noise on this forum. The deja vu is strong with this one.

If I was an analyst from NY I wouldn't like Elon neither, especially after getting burned by an epic short squeeze in 2013. Thanks New Yorkers for sending me your hard earned money...

Throwing the kitchen sink at Elon or Tesla only works when there's a bit of teething issues, once TE starts to ramp and M3 gets here, I'd like nothing more than hearing analysts say they're "shorting". Either way you slice it, shorts or no shorts, Elon and company are making very large measureable results.

 

[MitchJi]

What's not to like?

If the SP doesn't start to rise.

FYI when I see the arbitration gap closing, I feel like the acquisition is more likely to go through.

Whenever I see the arbitration gap grow, I feel like the market doesn't believe the acquisition will take place.

How are those two things related?

Times like now can be very frustrating. I know this is the short term thread, but bear with me for just a moment and consider this very basic argument, and see if you can really fault it:

<joke>
If you keep posting those lame puns you are going to make reading this thread unpalatable .
</joke>

 

[AlMc]

Mmmm.

For all you "lower is better" regarding TSLA price, remember this:

Before it gets to $100, it gets to $180.

And $170.

And $160.

And $150.

And..and..and

Are you sure you want that the road traveled? And more pointedly, just exactly where is it you are going to jump on board?

$180

 

[MitchJi]

I think TSLA, TAN, QQQ, and the FANGs are in for an absolute rip upwards starting November 9th and continuing once HRC announces her clean energy / tech investment initiatives next year.

And Ryan blocks her bills, to save jobs (trumple down economics)?

 

[sundaymorning]

$180

Thanks for that, $181

 

[kenliles]

$180

It's $173 now via SCTY

 

[tander]

I'm not sure how much clearer TSLA can be. They do not need any more capital than they already have in order to execute delivery of Model 3, and Model 3 program has been designed such that the more of them they sell, the faster they gain capital. Once Model 3 is shipping, the days of needing capital raises are over.

SCTY acquisition brings no additional execution risk, and actually de-risks it by providing working capital now, AND offering the option to trade the future cashflows for cash now any time they feel like they 'need' capital but the markets aren't favourable. They said no cap raise in 4Q16, and probably not one in 1Q17 or 2Q17 either.

I mean, we can agree to disagree, but your hypothesis seems to be that they're straight up lying to investors.

EDIT: and the profit *is* already flooding in. 29.4% GM on TA alone.

TSLA's mission statement simply does not allow them to delay Model 3 long enough that they could execute it by waiting for S/X to generate enough profit on their own.

That was nice to have a woman in the mix. Seemed like she usually asked some of the smartest questions, would love to see more women like her in the industry, maybe it would keep the tone of conference calls more productive too.

The funny part is that if all analysts thought and worked hard like Andrea James, SCTY probably never would have tanked so much, TSLA probably wouldn't have either, and TSLA would probably have ended up having to overpay for SCTY instead of just the perception of overpaying, making the merger way harder in reality than it seems right now.

 

[AlMc]

It's $173 now via SCTY

I knew you would point that out Ken!

 

[racer26]

@racer26 You believe everything Elon Musk says? (note: this is a serious question)

I believe he honestly believes what he's saying when he's saying it. I reject the notion that he is intentionally lying to investors and the public at large.

Those are subtly different, but close enough to the same.

I've not seen anything of real note he said, especially recently, that turned out to be straight up untrue. He misses his own deadlines with shocking regularity, but I don't think that's out of anything but the ceaseless overoptimism that got him to where he is today. I think he intends to meet them, but reality gets in the way. I hope the relatively small magnitude of the misses in timeline recently are indicative that he is getting better at compensating for reality.

 

[Value Ev]

technically... this stock is in trouble... question is... does a bank swoop in now and save it from a drop like they did over the summer... or do they let it go and hold it up a lower levels... the charts say lower levels... a drop from here points to the 160s/150s... and a test of will from the people holding this stock for 3 years waiting for $300.

If they aren't planning to raise money for this quarter or even sometime mid next year, why does the stock price matter?

Except for the employees being underwater, can't they just wait it out till there is progress on the 3 with units rolling off the line and orders going up. Wouldn't that have enough of an impact on the stock that raises at that point would be a lot less dilutive?

Besides, people who believe the stock will get to 300 are mainly the same as those who believe that that is just a temporary place - getting to $1T valuation is a $5000+ SP.

 

[tander]

Why?

To add to a quote (in bold).

"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin NOR THEIR GENDER but by the content of their character."

Would be nice to focus on what they say, not their gender or other irrelevant factors.

Yeah I agree, I specifically tried to emphasize how smart and hard working she was as an analyst, which certainly transcends gender and color. Regarding the gender, it is relevant in a way, finance in general has a pretty long-held old boys club sort of reputation, which is sometimes not the best thing when it comes to getting smart hard working people (of any gender or race), instead you just get all the same guys from the same fraternity or whatever. It's tough sometimes to get the tone of what people are typing from these comments, but I think you know I meant that in a very positive MLK kind of way, and very much a compliment to Andrea James regardless of gender or color. And with regard toward gender, I'm thankful she broke into the old boys club and set the bar higher.

 

[Value Ev]

I, for one, hope it doesn't go to $100. Lower the stock price, the more difficult it is to raise capital needed for Tesla's cap ex including Model 3 ramp, Model Y, Semi, Tesla Network, GF #2, etc. If you're a true Tesla fan, you don't want it to drop to $100 as that could seriously hamper Tesla's plans.

But according to the recent statements, they don't need to raise money for a long time and with the SCTY deal done and all the money from that, even later than they originally said.
Besides, a lower price allows Elon to load up on his holdings, which gives him even more sway in the future.

 

[Papafox]

I guess we'll choose to disagree here. One day, Tesla won't need to raise capital because profit will be flooding in... but that day is not here. Right now Tesla might say they don't "need" to do a capital raise immediately... but that's code word for "We really ought to do a cap raise soon, but we'll say we don't need to do one so we don't look desperate. But first chance the stock price looks good, we're doing a cap raise. And if stock price stays low, then we'll be forced to do a cap raise, probably sooner than later." In other words, cap raise is coming within next 2-6 months, and it's because they "need" to, especially since SCTY acquisition brings on additional execution risk and they need a bigger cushion for that.

Dave, you and I differed on how we thought TSLA might perform in the near term. I expressed expectations that today's event would be more specific in how the combined Tesla/SolarCity company reaches Model 3 significant production without raising funds. We didn't hear enough of a detailed answer and so I think your estimate of the stock price will be closer than mine. I tip my hat to you.

My expectations are that we will see a more profitable Q4 than Q3 because the GMs are improving, due to several steps taken by Tesla and possible because demand is robust. If Musk figures that Tesla will beat 2016 delivery guidance and make a better profit even without ZEV credits in the mix, then we can expect stock price recovery and a raise some time no later than a few weeks after the early March 4Q ER date. I suspect Musk would rather raise after this date than before, due to the stock price.

Nonetheless, in the case of raising $1 billion in funds at a stock price of $185 vs. $230, for example, the difference in shares needed to be created for the equity raise is about 1 million, and with about 150 million shares outstanding we see less than a 1% dilution difference between raising money at a low number and raising money at a middle-of-the-road number. It's not the end of the world for investors if he has to raise at a lower than desired price point.

November will likely be a volatile month between the SCTY vote and the election, but the farther we get from November, the better TSLA will look, IMO. What Tesla needs to do to restore investor confidence is deliver yet another excellent quarter, and I trust they will do so.

 

[schonelucht]

Just a wild unbridled guess: If Tesla received 2 million reservations for PW2, that is $1 Billion in cash flow right there at $500 per reservation. That is much better than a cap raise!

Seems overly optimistic. There was no way the same enthusiasm about reserving a PW2 that there was about reserving Model 3. Where people stood in line just to be the first etc... I would be surprised if they have 100k reservations by now.

 

[tlo]

My initial reaction was negative. There's nothing material in the letter.

But did anyone else notice how Elon didn't want to take the last guy's question? I do suspect that the merger is in the bag and they are no longer trying to convince investors.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

My initial reaction was negative. There's nothing material in the letter.

But did anyone else notice how Elon didn't want to take the last guy's question? I do suspect that the merger is in the bag and they are no longer trying to convince investors.

Is there a link where we can still listen??

 

[Value Ev]

My initial reaction was negative. There's nothing material in the letter.

But did anyone else notice how Elon didn't want to take the last guy's question? I do suspect that the merger is in the bag and they are no longer trying to convince investors.

Then why have the event or the one on Friday?