Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[kenliles]

I'm not saying that analysts have done their homework. Just saying they're not looking for Elon's vision and his reasoning. Rather they're looking for more concrete financial detail regarding how things pertain to risks/challenges ahead for TSLA. This is especially the case since SCTY's finances are difficult to understand, even for SCTY analysts.

True, creating the investment gap we currently have. Opportunity knocks. The payoff won't occur until the numbers prove out (as they have started doing last ER). By then it's too late, Of course;
if the 'analysts' can't do that home-work because it's just too difficult for them, what good are they? I think Elon said the same thing-
'which of these analysts accurately predicted anything of Tesla's current performance.' - paraphrase

 

[Roger t]

I do not think you are right here. Tesla sees that they need investment in the cell factory. They are already partners with Panasonic at the GF, and Panasonic is good at manufacturing. They know Panasonic has some of the best technology for solar cells. Solar City also has excellent technology for solar cells. They see partnering with Panasonic a win-win: combined technology is a leap forwards, Panasonic puts in capital and know-how into the solar-cell factory. Panasonic gets bigger market. As I said, win-win.

I am not sure about the maturity of Silevo's technology at this point. Given their current situation, would Solarcity be able to raise the capital to build the Gigafactory themselves? Will Panasonic trust them enough to work with them? Tesla's acquisition makes both possible.

 

[FluxCap]

Does no one else get excited on days like these? I love irrational market discounts!

Let's see, 50% CAGR has continued, production run rate is at goals, model S and X are at steady state production, model 3 is temporarily on schedule, powerwall 2.0 is wildly better than any competitors offering, utilities are starting to get capex on battery storage, solar roofs look fantastic, full autonomy hardware already in production and will be standard on model 3, Tesla network is confirmed, model y, pickup, minibus, semi all confirmed, cash flow positive and profitable operation are all here and I get to buy at a significant discount to the normal trading range for when model S was at 800/month run rate and model X wasn't released yet?

Today is a wonderful day if you like making money! The Tesla story has only grown in scope, execution, and value while the price has sunk due to solar industry struggles, macro interest rate of election risk, and your standard not very good analysts not understanding a merger. I love information arbitrage!

Not to mention, what fantastic swing trading! If only I was allowed to trade derivatives, I wonder what Nov 200 calls and currently going for.

Side note, also going long TAN and PBW, I think the time is finally right.

Well said my friend. TAN looks like a pile of canine turd lately, and it can be tough to tell investors we must stay the course into 2017, but fortunately my investors are not spooked by a few weeks of downswing, and they get it. I've added significantly to our position.

I think TSLA, TAN, QQQ, and the FANGs are in for an absolute rip upwards starting November 9th and continuing once HRC announces her clean energy / tech investment initiatives next year.

 

[AudubonB]

Mmmm.

For all you "lower is better" regarding TSLA price, remember this:

Before it gets to $100, it gets to $180.

And $170.

And $160.

And $150.

And..and..and

Are you sure you want that the road traveled? And more pointedly, just exactly where is it you are going to jump on board?

 

[DaveT]

Heh I hope it goes to $100. Using logic from bears on this forum, it's quite possible. In fact, anything is possible. Although Tesla provides the market with all the evidence of a company growing on steroids, few analyst on Wall Street possess the intellect to process this information. So one can only dream of $180, $170, $150s.. if you're bullish. A blessing in disguise if you have dough to drop folks.

I, for one, hope it doesn't go to $100. Lower the stock price, the more difficult it is to raise capital needed for Tesla's cap ex including Model 3 ramp, Model Y, Semi, Tesla Network, GF #2, etc. If you're a true Tesla fan, you don't want it to drop to $100 as that could seriously hamper Tesla's plans.

 

[3Victoria]

The Silevo factory is built, just needs the equipment installed (and paid for by NY). The Panasonic investment is on and above. Tesla Solar will still need regular solar panels for installs. New roof installs would likely use the new tiles.

 

[myusername]

technically... this stock is in trouble... question is... does a bank swoop in now and save it from a drop like they did over the summer... or do they let it go and hold it up a lower levels... the charts say lower levels... a drop from here points to the 160s/150s... and a test of will from the people holding this stock for 3 years waiting for $300.

 

[racer26]

I, for one, hope it doesn't go to $100. Lower the stock price, the more difficult it is to raise capital needed for Tesla's cap ex including Model 3 ramp, Model Y, Semi, Tesla Network, GF #2, etc. If you're a true Tesla fan, you don't want it to drop to $100 as that could seriously hamper Tesla's plans.

No it doesn't. Tesla doesn't need capital, and has said it won't raise unless the situation is ripe for further derisking the business by doing so. I agree its more difficult, but I believe that the raise earlier this year is the last one Tesla will 'need'.

 

[sundaymorning]

I, for one, hope it doesn't go to $100. Lower the stock price, the more difficult it is to raise capital needed for Tesla's cap ex including Model 3 ramp, Model Y, Semi, Tesla Network, GF #2, etc. If you're a true Tesla fan, you don't want it to drop to $100 as that could seriously hamper Tesla's plans.

If Elon can get model 3 to market on time, I wouldn't worry about capital raises (although it wouldn't be prudent)...The point here is I don't care how Tesla the stock behaves, I keep buying more. I've said it before, there's no such thing as technical analysis for Tesla, just flip a coin and go with it.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

technically... this stock is in trouble... question is... does a bank swoop in now and save it from a drop like they did over the summer... or do they let it go and hold it up a lower levels... the charts say lower levels... a drop from here points to the 160s/150s... and a test of will from the people holding this stock for 3 years waiting for $300.

I had to take you off of ignore for the warm fuzzies.

 

[winfield100]

Mmmm.

For all you "lower is better" regarding TSLA price, remember this:
Before it gets to $100, it gets to $180.
And $170.
And $160.
And $150.
And..and..and
Are you sure you want that the road traveled? And more pointedly, just exactly where is it you are going to jump on board?

they will be at this concert, (unless it's the result of a stock split)

 

[Turing]

No it doesn't. Tesla doesn't need capital, and has said it won't raise unless the situation is ripe for further derisking the business by doing so. I agree its more difficult, but I believe that the raise earlier this year is the last one Tesla will 'need'.

This is why i don't really understand the bear/short game plan at this point, if Tesla can coast into q2 or q3 2017 without raising capital then what's the exit plan for them? Just keep having Chanos and Lutz make the media rounds every week selling blatant lies about tesla until...? In 2013 it made sense, bankruptcy was a real possibility.

 

[techmaven]

I've been trying to figure out the cost of electricity at the Solarcity plant in Buffalo, NY. Apparently there is this Recharge NY program that allocates their hydro power at absurdly low rates.

New York Power Authority: About Us

According to the tariff, it appears that they charge $0.01581 per kWh, plus $7.32 per kW demand charge. The billing demand charge is the highest 30 minutes of integrated demand during each billing period.

Basically, it's really, really cheap green power. Hence they can cost effectively form quartz glass.

 

[DaveT]

No it doesn't. Tesla doesn't need capital, and has said it won't raise unless the situation is ripe for further derisking the business by doing so. I agree its more difficult, but I believe that the raise earlier this year is the last one Tesla will 'need'.

I guess we'll choose to disagree here. One day, Tesla won't need to raise capital because profit will be flooding in... but that day is not here. Right now Tesla might say they don't "need" to do a capital raise immediately... but that's code word for "We really ought to do a cap raise soon, but we'll say we don't need to do one so we don't look desperate. But first chance the stock price looks good, we're doing a cap raise. And if stock price stays low, then we'll be forced to do a cap raise, probably sooner than later." In other words, cap raise is coming within next 2-6 months, and it's because they "need" to, especially since SCTY acquisition brings on additional execution risk and they need a bigger cushion for that.

 

[racer26]

I guess we'll choose to disagree here. One day, Tesla won't need to raise capital because profit will be flooding in... but that day is not here. Right now Tesla might say they don't "need" to do a capital raise immediately... but that's code word for "We really ought to do a cap raise soon, but we'll say we don't need to do one so we don't look desperate. But first chance the stock price looks good, we're doing a cap raise. And if stock price stays low, then we'll be forced to do a cap raise, probably sooner than later." In other words, cap raise is coming within next 2-6 months, and it's because they "need" to, especially since SCTY acquisition brings on additional execution risk and they need a bigger cushion for that.

I'm not sure how much clearer TSLA can be. They do not need any more capital than they already have in order to execute delivery of Model 3, and Model 3 program has been designed such that the more of them they sell, the faster they gain capital. Once Model 3 is shipping, the days of needing capital raises are over.

SCTY acquisition brings no additional execution risk, and actually de-risks it by providing working capital now, AND offering the option to trade the future cashflows for cash now any time they feel like they 'need' capital but the markets aren't favourable. They said no cap raise in 4Q16, and probably not one in 1Q17 or 2Q17 either.

I mean, we can agree to disagree, but your hypothesis seems to be that they're straight up lying to investors.

EDIT: and the profit *is* already flooding in. 29.4% GM on TA alone.

TSLA's mission statement simply does not allow them to delay Model 3 long enough that they could execute it by waiting for S/X to generate enough profit on their own.

 

[3Victoria]

... and add in TE income.

 

[sundaymorning]

... and add in TE income.

Q4 is worth about $2.5 billion in revenue. If they aim for 120,000 deliveries for 2017, and ramp up TE, I'm in the camp that thinks Tesla isn't very desperate for a raise. Will they do one? Sure, why not, it's going to derisk the business. Either way Tesla chooses, bears will pounce on Tesla. If Tesla raises capital, they're lying, if Tesla doesn't raise capital, then it's too risky of a proposition.

 

[ggr]

I guess we'll choose to disagree here. One day, Tesla won't need to raise capital because profit will be flooding in... but that day is not here. Right now Tesla might say they don't "need" to do a capital raise immediately... but that's code word for "We really ought to do a cap raise soon, but we'll say we don't need to do one so we don't look desperate. But first chance the stock price looks good, we're doing a cap raise. And if stock price stays low, then we'll be forced to do a cap raise, probably sooner than later." In other words, cap raise is coming within next 2-6 months, and it's because they "need" to, especially since SCTY acquisition brings on additional execution risk and they need a bigger cushion for that.

I agree that the stock price matters if they want to do a capital raise. But nothing that the price of stock can do will change whether they need a capital raise or not. All the money from selling existing stock is already theirs, and in the bank or money market or wherever.

 

[TMSE]

Anybody has any guess on how many reservations will be for powerwall 2?

Just a wild unbridled guess: If Tesla received 2 million reservations for PW2, that is $1 Billion in cash flow right there at $500 per reservation. That is much better than a cap raise!

2 million PW2 units at 14kwh each, require about 28 Gwh in battery cells. I am not sure how much GF1 is expected to produce in 2017. Any guess?

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree. Very often EM seems not to understand (or care) that "people" don't understand (or care) about the inherent logic of a decision, but especially about money/finance (as @DaveT emphasized). He always forgets that people (analysts, especially) don't think like he does.

I personally love that the first slides of every Tesla presentation (look at tonight's letter...) are about CO2 increasing and climate change, but as much as he keeps saying that very few are gonna listen. Tesla (the company) is co-dependent TSLA (the stock), and in the stock market very few are interested about CO2. It seems to me that he keeps forgetting that.

My fear is that he really makes mistakes in this regard (communication, manipulation of SP), and puts Tesla (the merger, specifically) in trouble.

And that's why I miss Andrea James. Because she took the time to research her subject and understand it before she opened her mouth or put it to paper. Not Elon's fault everyone else sucks at their job.

I don't think Elon forgets that analysts don't think like him. He's acknowledged several times where their interests lay, while his are of a different kind. I suspect he's trying to enlighten them and is continually left scratching his head why they're not bright enough to get it. How much further can he dumb it down for them?

I have no fears concerning Tesla, TSLA, Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, etc... I've seen more than enough to know they'll do it or die trying. I can back that all day long, every day.

Today was super noisy and I was reminded of the many other occasions of such noise on this forum. The deja vu is strong with this one.