Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[myusername]

so... is SCTY reporting tomorrow?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

so... is SCTY reporting tomorrow?

Oh I certainly hope so. As a Tesla shareholder, I am so excited to see their fantastic balance sheet and all the wonderful things they have done this quarter. So excited. I may tune in, lying on my dirty linoleum floor with some cheap whiskey. One has to have things in life to look forward to after all! There is just something soooooo soothing about Lydon Rive's sultry South African accent.

 

[myusername]

Oh I certainly hope so. As a Tesla shareholder, I am so excited to see their fantastic balance sheet and all the wonderful things they have done this quarter. So excited. I may tune in, lying on my dirty linoleum floor with some cheap whiskey. One has to have things in life to look forward to after all!

someone just saw your post and sold 1k shares.

 

[schonelucht]

FYI TSLA 10-Q is out.

 

[Irishjugg]

Well said my friend. TAN looks like a pile of canine turd lately, and it can be tough to tell investors we must stay the course into 2017, but fortunately my investors are not spooked by a few weeks of downswing, and they get it. I've added significantly to our position.

I think TSLA, TAN, QQQ, and the FANGs are in for an absolute rip upwards starting November 9th and continuing once HRC announces her clean energy / tech investment initiatives next year.

Good luck to us . Long TSLA, TAN, PBW in an amount that would make a financial advisor suggest rebalancing

 

[3mp_kwh]

@larmor
The SCTY deal is good for SCTY for obvious reasons (they're headed down the tubes without it), but its good for TSLA in much less obvious ways that I'm hoping Elon does a good job explaining between tonight and Tuesday. It has the ability to provide TSLA with access to capital that neither dilutes shareholder equity nor increases corporate debt in the near term (which, coincidentally is probably the most important timeframe TSLA has ever had in its history in terms of needing reliable access to capital), if TSLA plays the cards correctly.

The future cash flows that SCTY owns from the PPAs will be peanuts to TSLA in a few years once Model 3 and Y and more start shipping in volume, but they're worth hundreds of millions (maybe even billions) of dollars. Selling off the rights to those cashflows today will provide a big cash infusion right now, when it counts.

First, I don't know all the value setting details to those PPAs, but would expect their asset value has offsetting liabilities which would be soon upcoming, and would water down any "infusion" effect. The PPAs could be variable (probably aren't). If fixed, in states where NM policy has shifted down, or utility (sign-up) solar caps have been reached, or SREC programs have been adjusted to be less lucrative, the value of those PPA's should be modeled down. Falling solar costs have to keep up with the falling benefits I mention. In AZ, for instance, the NM take-out was above 10 cents and fell to 2-3, in one commission ruling. That isn't a proxy for everyplace, but part of a negative cocktail of support (away from the positive federal ITC extension, to 2024). SCTY eats important state policy risk, and there's less political will to strengthen it, versus utility-scale or imported renewables. That's closer to the temperature (RPS) states seem to be running.

(My opinion) Batteries should be a receivable to TSLA, and payable from SCTY, and SCTY should be able to capitalize the nifty shingle product on the street, like any other viable business. Where I agree with others is the long-dated returns, and possible potential positive NPV, if some day shingle cash flows ramp up. I just think it is a lot longer than Model 3/Y, and does nothing to defend TSLA from the sensitive period it is entering as a car & battery company.

 

[Bgarret]

Hatchets have been honed and are out in force this morning. Tough for TSLA stock price to swim against the rip-current of analyst doubt and negativity from the "press". Some of these articles have little or nothing to do with the headlines, click-bait. Didn't read some behind paywalls. Fair or unfair, negative sentiment is dominant with random and unrelated topics being dredged up("pressuring for votes", that Tesla will actually buy cells from Panasonic, the dangers of verticals integration - throwing any and all against the wall to see what will stick.)

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

• Tesla obliged to pay $1.7 billion to Panasonic for gigafactory cellsReuters (Wed 8:40AM EDT)
• Early movers: BABA, TWX, AGN, EL, CLX, VRX, SQ, Z, EA, HLF, X & moreat CNBC (Wed 8:37AM EDT)
• Tesla Shares Fall as Musk Tries to Explain Benefits of Tesla-SolarCity Tieat TheStreet (Wed 8:26AM EDT)
• Elon Musk tightens screws on investors in Tesla-SolarCity dealat MarketWatch (Wed 7:35AM EDT)
• Tesla Makes Case for Solar City Merger in Manifesto (TSLA, SCTY)at Investopedia (Wed 6:39AM EDT)
• TESLA MOTORS INC Files SEC form 10-Q, Quarterly ReportEDGAR Online (Wed 6:08AM EDT)
• [$$] Tesla-SolarCity: Cash for votesat Financial Times (Wed 12:27AM EDT)
• [$$] Tesla Says SolarCity Deal Would Boost Balance Sheetat The Wall Street Journal (Wed 12:13AM EDT)

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

 

[traxila]

This too shall pass. Just execute baby.

Reminder: Tesla is currently producing the best cars in the world for everyone except track fiends. Tesla is going to sell those cars and cheap solar energy / storage is probably something that may have a market out there.

They might even have some buyers for the Model 3.

Cheers!

 

[Irishjugg]

That

Three items:

(1) Having reviewed the available information, I have voted online FOR the merger of Tesla and SolarCity. The product ecosystem of solar generation, stationary storage, and electric vehicles makes a lot of sense. The stronger financial position of Tesla and SolarCity reduces some of my prior concerns about SolarCity's debts. I am trusting Elon and Jason Wheeler on this, but if I didn't trust them, I would have exited my holdings in Tesla long ago.

(2) I do not expect to participate in this thread going forward, although I will stay around the forum generally, but mostly in the background. In the past, I used this thread to get a jump on Tesla news, but the quality of reporting from sites like Electrek.co means that I can usually get the latest without having the wade through posts here. Frankly, the level of discourse in this thread over the past year has been appalling, and it is now impractical for me to sort through the morass of cheerleading, trolling, and FUD spreading here.

(3) Parting words: Don't invest (or gamble) more than you can afford to lose, as TSLA can be extremely unpredictable in the short term, regardless of events or macro conditions. I don't risk my retirement funds on TSLA, and I don't believe most people should either. I believe that Tesla likely has a bright future ahead, but I have no idea if/when TSLA will exit the current plateau and head upwards. This is a stock that I believe must be held for years or even more than a decade in order to realize its highest potential. Finally, I'd encourage people to have some fun with this once in awhile, by which I mean for anyone who hasn't, buy a Tesla, or test drive one if you can't afford it yet. There is something pretty inspiring about the Tesla family of vehicles, which is really only apparent from behind the steering wheel. A Tesla automobile is something I look forward to eventually owning, whether it is a Model 3 or Model Y.

I'll be around.

That is pretty disappointing but I can't say I blame you. Certainly a lot more crap to wade through than there used to be and a much lower quality level. If you find another place or group that feels the way this place used to, please let me know

 

[ggies07]

At some point in the not too distant future, maybe not until level 5 autonomy, the Tesla network and the mission to Mars has been launched, people will actually start believing that when Elon says he intends to do something he will do it.

Which is weird right? Because he said he was going to build a great sports car EV, did that, said he was going to build a cheaper sedan, did that + SUV , said he was going to build a car for the masses, and here we are with prototypes driving around town and production starting next year.....why anyone would not believe in what he says and what the company does is beyond me............

 

[FluxCap]

That

That is pretty disappointing but I can't say I blame you. Certainly a lot more crap to wade through than there used to be and a much lower quality level. If you find another place or group that feels the way this place used to, please let me know

Ditto.

 

[ggr]

Could someone help me better understand the $2 billion of recourse debt of SolarCity? I'm sure others share my curiosity. My understanding of recourse debt is that it is collateralized debt, something that SolarCity is on the hook to pay. Is this a portion of each PPA contract that SolarCity would need to pay to various parties if all homeowners defaulted on all PPA agreements? Is there other debt on the books for SolarCity, such as mortgages on buildings, etc., or is that just part of the $2 billion recourse debt? Much thanks.

I think your understanding of recourse debt is correct. What you seem to have wrong is that they were saying "non-recourse debt".

 

[racer26]

I think your understanding of recourse debt is correct. What you seem to have wrong is that they were saying "non-recourse debt".

So far as I understand it - the majority of SCTY's debt is non-recourse debt, collateralized against the installed equipment.

If SCTY were to default on that debt, the creditor's only recourse is in the value of the equipment. SCTY the company is shielded from the creditor seeking compensation beyond that.

 

[Ulmo]

So, was the bear thesis fully baked in yesterday?

Edit: They don't seem like bakers. They're running a rally now, hard fight, since they're having trouble.

 

[racer26]

So, was the bear thesis fully baked in yesterday?

If the bear thesis was fully baked in, then we should have gapped up, since everything that was said on the call and in the letter served to further shoot the bear thesis full of holes even more than it already was.

With the guys as confident as they were that the merger is going to happen, I can't believe there is still so much arbitrage available.

 

[TMSE]

If you are referring to our earlier discussion, then the question was : if Q4 2016 is a repeat of the Q4 2015 strategy, then why are US deliveries last month lower than last year (despite to overall quarter projected to grow 50%). And the potential given answer was : because this year they will deliver more overseas which biases against a good October month for the US. So the proper comparison to answer that question is not with last quarter (when they didn't do the speculated extreme pipeline emptying) but with last year. And then the picture is less rosy. Compared with last year, October deliveries in Norway are down by 38%, those in the Netherlands are down by 48% and are only up in Sweden by 29%. While we don't have data yet, there is a very high certainty that both UK (by a little) and Denmark (by a lot) will do worse than last year. Taken together I feel confident to estimate that Europe won't do better than last year. Maybe Asia will pick up the slack, but I think current data actually strengthens the argument that deliveries in Oct are down because Tesla choose to produce inventory over custom orders.

I think AP2 rollout is the reason why October numbers are low.

 

[racer26]

I think AP2 rollout is the reason why October numbers are low.

Probably a bit of both. AP2 rollout = factory shutdown = gap in production = gap in deliveries that landed in October, and increased demand overseas means more cars going overseas means fewer to US in the early part of a quarter.

 

[dennis]

Taken together I feel confident to estimate that Europe won't do better than last year. Maybe Asia will pick up the slack, but I think current data actually strengthens the argument that deliveries in Oct are down because Tesla choose to produce inventory over custom orders.

That would make sense from a customer satisfaction standpoint. Don't deliver a lot of custom ordered cars with AP1 just before (or after!) AP2 is announced. Instead build AP1 inventory cars that will be sold at a small discount because they are the prior generation and help to goose EOQ sales.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Among Tesla bulls, let's just say there are those who take Elon's words as the ultimate authority and don't question/doubt them

[citation needed]

 

[FredTMC]

Probably a bit of both. AP2 rollout = factory shutdown = gap in production = gap in deliveries that landed in October, and increased demand overseas means more cars going overseas means fewer to US in the early part of a quarter.

Yes. October cars are largely put on boats for overseas markets

And Tesla doesn't report Monthly deliveries. Only quarterly.

It's damaging to tesla to have certain sites post their speculation on monthly US deliveries. They need to quit feeding the FUD machine.

Elon has explained numerous times that reporting monthly deliveries doesn't work for tesla. Tesla deliveries are disproportionally in the last month of the quarter always