Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[electracity]

I really wish Tesla would publish a "Common Misconceptions about Tesla (and SolarCity)" blog entry which captured and coherently & thoughtfully refuted every bear/bullsugar/Lutztard argument against TSLA and SCTY. The FUD machine is out of control; let's have one place we can point to for analysts, reporters, civilians, etc. to go that shows reality. Relying on Elon's tweets & philosophical answers to analysts' questions, reading tea leaves, a few good journalists and reality itself is not working...

You simply need to look at solar system cost trends and SCTY customer acquisition cost to know that Solarcity is a failing business model. Musk has not even attempted to claim that selling what they currently sell is a way forward.

They used extreme leverage to grow solarcity in a rapidly changing and uncertain market. That was dumb, irresponsible, and has put Tesla at risk.

What I think will save this FUBAR is not the new solar roof, but the new powerwall and related software.

 

[dha]

Selling TSLA now? Really!

There are four trading days left before the U.S. holds its most contentious presidential election in decades. Depending on who you ask, there is currently a 20% - 30% chance that Americans elect someone who has promised to upend global trade deals, has maintained that climate change is a Chinese hoax and is openly hostile to clean energy.

I am mega bullish on TSLA in the long term. But to buy shares now or hold them unhedged through the next week is hugely irrational IMO.

 

[3Victoria]

I do not see that SolarCity as it is now is 'has put Tesla at risk'. It is a screaming deal with a free factory, including the manufacturing equipment.

 

[Skryll]

I do not see that SolarCity as it is now is 'has put Tesla at risk'. It is a screaming deal with a free factory, including the manufacturing equipment.

Which is why I was voting yes.

 

[Green Pete]

There are four trading days left before the U.S. holds its most contentious presidential election in decades. Depending on who you ask, there is currently a 20% - 30% chance that Americans elect someone who has promised to upend global trade deals, has maintained that climate change is a Chinese hoax and is openly hostile to clean energy.

I am mega bullish on TSLA in the long term. But to buy shares now or hold them unhedged through the next week is hugely irrational IMO.

I've often wondered if Thiel isnt pro-trump as a hedged bet on Clinton losing. I'm aware that it's basis wishful thinking.

 

[dha]

but I just don't get how anyone in their right mind could be pro trump.

I don't think this is the proper venue for your comment. I've tried to frame my thoughts on the election as a sober, neutral assessment of the risk a Trump victory presents to the short-term price of TSLA stock. I do think the election is the single most significant short-term catalyst on the horizon--by far--and I think this community has been under appreciating the risk.

I'm not a moderator but I do believe comments such as yours might derail the thread into pure political mudslinging. I think it would be more productive to neutrally discuss the relative probabilities of the various outcomes of this election, assess objectively how they are likely to affect TSLA short-term movement and potential strategies for hedging or loss mitigation.

I don't particularly enjoy talking about it, but it is germane to short-term price movements. I believe macro markets and the fallout from this election are likely to dominate TSLA price action in the coming weeks--far more than any news coming from Elon or the company.

 

[Green Pete]

I don't think this is the proper venue for your comment. I've tried to frame my thoughts on the election as a sober, neutral assessment of the risk a Trump victory presents to the short-term price of TSLA stock. I do think the election is the single most significant short-term catalyst on the horizon and I think this community has been under appreciating the risk.

I'm not a moderator but I do believe comments such as yours might derail the thread into pure political mudslinging. I think it would be more productive to neutrally discuss the relatively probabilities of the various of this election, assess objectively how they are likely to affect TSLA short-term movement and potential strategies for hedging or loss mitigation.

I don't particularly enjoy talking about it, but it is germane to short-term price movements. I believe macro markets and the fallout of this election are likely to dominate TSLA price action in the coming weeks--far more than any news coming from Elon or the company.

Edited it for the greater good

 

[yngwie_2012]

When im looking at the current sp movement of tsla, im wondering what these sellers are seeing that im not..

 

[Jayjs20]

When im looking at the current sp movement of tsla, im wondering what these sellers are seeing that im not..

The price crash from the SCTY>TSLA conversion and the potential rate hike at the end of the year, as well as the general slump in the overall market.

 

[yngwie_2012]

Hmmm...whats the market capital of scty? 2bln? thats like 6-7% of tsla market capital. So even when Scty would go bankrupt, tsla shouldnt go much lower? Or am i missing somehting?

 

[3Victoria]

I have decided to bash Tesla in order to depress the SP and provide an excellent price to buy more stock. I now realize that all the longs should do the same so that we can all increase our holdings, and in my case cost average my holdings downwards.

 

[Green Pete]

I have decided to bash Tesla in order to depress the SP and provide an excellent price to buy more stock. I now realize that all the longs should do the same so that we can all increase our holdings, and in my case cost average my holdings downwards.

Starting to wonder if you were't the first people to come up with this. The sense of confidence that both TSLA and SCTY are good to go on cash until they do a cap raise to develop a self flying personal vehicle capable of sub orbital flight. So the price going down at this point should come as a gift to longs who can stand to wait out the next 2 years.

 

[Turing]

There's lots of evidence that Tesla is a better manufacturer than BMW. Hey, my last 4 cars have been BMWs. I loved the performance and feel, but the performance in particular comes at an awful price...especially when the cars go out of warranty. Good luck! They may pump out more cars than Tesla, but it is disingenuous to suggest that there's no "rework" going on with BMW. In fact, their products are much more flawed (beyond the inherent issues with ICEs) than Teslas once the kinks have been worked out on the Tesla factory lines.

I will leave you with this funny and frightening account from a former Bimmer aficionado. Sure it's anecdotal, but trust me, based on my experiences with my e46, e82 and e39 and the experiences of friends who have owned BMWs, this rings utterly true.

http://thegarage.jalopnik.com/bmw-engines-are-gigantic-pieces-of-*sugar*-1784684330

So now I wait patiently for the word that it's time to configure my Tesla Model 3. In the meantime I've jettisoned my last BMW and I'm currently driving an utterly reliable but mind-numbingly boring 16-year old Honda Civic. I may not be able to wait for the Model 3! The siren song of the S is strong and the ties binding me to the mast are fraying!

Have had similar experiences with BMW, never again will anyone in my household own one out of warranty. My friends wife had one that just went out of warranty last year, i asked him if he was going to get her a new car a few months ago because of this? He said something like "no, you make the real value driving cars longer", i kind of laughed and said that isn't my experience with bmw. Fast forward a few months and he tells me he's looking for a new car for his wife because the bmw is having transmission issues and the repair quotes he got were outrageous. I just chuckled and said I tried to warn you.

 

[RobStark]

Well then I guess I need to rewatch Talladega Nights to prepare for redneck cultural dominance. Do I need to give up craft beer?

You have to switch to Belgian Brazilian brewery Anheuser-Busch InBev with global headquarters in Leuven Belgium.

 

[Intl Professor]

So the price going down at this point should come as a gift to longs who can stand to wait out the next 2 years.

But no dry powder!!!!

 

[Bgarret]

Yeah it's weird, I've been thinking about this phenomenon recently. I think it's partially a credibility problem, but it's exasperated by the lack of detailed information Tesla provides. It reminds me of the clever Gigafactory opening slide, raw materials come in, bunch of stuff happens, finished products exit the factory. After the full Model X story has come out and basically now we can also extrapolate Powerwall 1 seems to have been a similar early misadventure when juxtaposed with the "Off the hook" demand...this is the new reality of "trust us" from the markets. Missing the self imposed deadlines only adds to the reputation of "pie in the sky predictions" which explains the cold shoulder to profitable quarter AP 2.0 and all the great recent news. Has the market even considered the Tesla ride sharing business or ignored it entirely? SolarCity is to my view, the same fundamental problem on steroids as the conventional market wisdom already believes Solar is a dead end business. I think, and sadly bet wrong that Elon and Tesla would understand this and provide the information needed for better financial modeling...which alleviates some of the arguments and misconceptions. SolarCity has always been lacking it's own Secret Master Plan to help investors grasp what is probably more confusing business minefield than Tesla Motors.

The best answer that comes to mind is from a presentation I went to with Dave Evans from the Stanford Design school, helps run the "Design Your Life" curriculum. He Juxtaposed the Design Aesthetic and the Engineering Aesthetic and what Elon and Tesla seem to be champions of is the Design....Design (break), re-iterate (break), re-design....ad infinitum. Wall Street doesn't get this. It is used to the overwrought Engineering Aesthetic that is championed by Detroit, J

 

[Jayjs20]

Hmmm...whats the market capital of scty? 2bln? thats like 6-7% of tsla market capital. So even when Scty would go bankrupt, tsla shouldnt go much lower? Or am i missing somehting?

I find that TSLA investors are especially fickle, perhaps due to the constant barrage of FUD.

At the moment, there's no reason to throw a substantial amount of money onto the market when you know everything will drift down lower.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I've often wondered if Thiel isnt pro-trump as a hedged bet on Clinton losing. I'm aware that it's basis wishful thinking, but I just don't get how anyone in their right mind could be pro trump.

That's funny I find it the same with pro HRC.

Thiel hit most of the point why I favor Trump.

This market is reacting to a higher chance Trump wins.

 

[viKtor slamet]

Hmmm...whats the market capital of scty? 2bln? thats like 6-7% of tsla market capital. So even when Scty would go bankrupt, tsla shouldnt go much lower? Or am i missing somehting?

Yes, you are missing something. I'll try to explain some worrying stuff about SCTY:
- 1.8B Market Cap, but they have 3B debts. Yes they have Asset which they valued at $2B, but those are depreciating quickly.
- The fear is once TSLA merged with SCTY, SCTY will use TSLA cash to do their silly business. This is a distraction. Investor wants TSLA to focus on burning cash for Model 3 activity, not for other silly stuff, especially leasing more Solar Panel.
- What are they gonna do with 15,000 SCTY employees?

 

[Green Pete]

That's funny I find it the same with pro HRC.

Thiel hit most of the point why I favor Trump.

This market is reacting to a higher chance Trump wins.

As pointed out this shouldn't become a political forum. I edited my post to try to keep a neutral personal opinion on the election.