Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Driver Dave]

Tesla Solar + Tesla Battery + Tesla Car = never pay for fuel again.

Of course they go together.

Of course there is a market for "free fuel"

I mean, duh.

 

[Value Ev]

Yeah it's weird, I've been thinking about this phenomenon recently. I think it's partially a credibility problem, but it's exasperated by the lack of detailed information Tesla provides.

I think that is really good point.

What Tesla is going through is not unusual - it is 100% expected with a high growth/visionary company.

There is always an ebb and flow with the blend of vision and detailed information. The trick is always to keep up with the blend that the market is expecting based on where the company is.

"Off the hook" demand...this is the new reality of "trust us" from the markets.

That is a good example. Talking about a new product and describing the vision and the off the hookness of demand is terrific and an important part of the vision. BUT, the market will then expect an update in the next ER on the specifics of the results.

Someone earlier asked and speculated about why TE wasn't specifically described in terms of results (apologies if I misinterpreted the question). I think a very simple answer is "because they don't have anything compelling to say yet to follow up on the big vision statements.

Has the market even considered the Tesla ride sharing business or ignored it entirely?

A quick aside, but this is another interesting vision vs. execution thing. Great vision. Interesting. But remember, Uber is losing a lot of money and so is Lyft. A lot. Today, I heard of two other start ups in our area (seems just focused on commuting between two popular locations). Sure they get a super high valuation because of the potential, but if they can't figure out the right model to eventually make money, watch their valuation tumble (see TWTR) And so Tesla wants to compete with what could be two wounded but well funded companies in a market that hasn't proven out yet? Ok.

They will SolarCity is to my view, the same fundamental problem on steroids as the conventional market wisdom already believes Solar is a dead end business.

I don't think it is dead end. It is just that is a really difficult business and the sales costs are high since it is a hard product to sell. Having panels in a Tesla store won't fundamentally change that any more than having displays in Home Depot or Lowes (far more locations with people doing home improvement) has. How many people here signed up for SolarCity since it is also an Elon company and they have the vision of global warming, etc?

 

[Lessmog]

I find that TSLA investors are especially fickle, perhaps due to the constant barrage of FUD.

At the moment, there's no reason to throw a substantial amount of money onto the market when you know everything will drift down lower.

I'm sorry, Jayjs, but who is it you are describing here?
It's sad and one should not laugh, but what about desperation? (Rhethorical)

 

[Green Pete]

I think that is really good point.
A quick aside, but this is another interesting vision vs. execution thing. Great vision. Interesting. But remember, Uber is losing a lot of money and so is Lyft. A lot.

Uber loses money for odd reasons though. I recall somewhere awhile ago that they took a profit of something like 4 cents per mile traveled. But they spend more in silly ways. They keep increasing the amount they take from drivers in the US, but in China they were paying $1.20 for each $1.00 they charged passengers, which is a market share battle they lost. They've also made some odd purchases, like Otto, which is a great vision, but the idea that they will be able to produce those trucks at scale before Tesla without buying batteries from Tesla is a strange notion, stranger considering they aren't the leader in self driving, or any other sector important to that business. I think uber would have been wiser to start cutting expenses now and taking in money to do other things. They've painted themselves into a corner with irrational spending on a business that they aren't capable of continuing in the long term.

 

[electracity]

When im looking at the current sp movement of tsla, im wondering what these sellers are seeing that im not..

Maybe just the U.S. election. The real price may be steady a flat 200, but some people are moving out of TSLA temporarily on the small chance that evil wins.

 

[MP3Mike]

They've also made some odd purchases, like Otto, which is a great vision, but the idea that they will be able to produce those trucks at scale before Tesla without buying batteries from Tesla is a strange notion

Are they even planning on making the trucks electric? I thought they were sticking with ICE and just replacing the driver to cut costs.

 

[Quassinoid]

Sorry if this has already been posted, but sharing good news more than once can't be that bad.
2017 Motor Trend Awards

 

[Lessmog]

Uber loses money for odd reasons though. I recall somewhere awhile ago that they took a profit of something like 4 cents per mile traveled. But they spend more in silly ways. They keep increasing the amount they take from drivers in the US, but in China they were paying $1.20 for each $1.00 they charged passengers, which is a market share battle they lost. They've also made some odd purchases, like Otto, which is a great vision, but the idea that they will be able to produce those trucks at scale before Tesla without buying batteries from Tesla is a strange notion, stranger considering they aren't the leader in self driving, or any other sector important to that business. I think uber would have been wiser to start cutting expenses now and taking in money to do other things. They've painted themselves into a corner with irrational spending on a business that they aren't capable of continuing in the long term.

Amusing that Über chose the name Otto for the trucking biz. Why not Diesel? Or for that matter, Watt? Even Stirling. Tesla seems to be taken already ...

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'm considering buying more SCTY/TSLA, but now that we are this close to the election, I think I'll wait until the 9th before deciding. I don't think I'm alone in waiting.

 

[MitchJi]

You'll be missed!

TMC "improvement" suggestion:

Please restore the "Reputation Points" (green light dots) prominently

This made it easy for me to see INSTANTLY (visually) whether a given post was worth reading.

Maybe there's a way to do this now, but it needs to be turned "on" by default.

Great idea but the other feedback options also provide valuable information. The problem is that they are a pain to find.

Maybe the actual numbers, in red for dislikes, given and received, likes given and received in green, helpful and informative given and received in blue etc. I'd also love to see the number of ignores the person has displayed in the same manner.

I see. I think the reason for low margin now may be more about a small production bearing the whole depreciation of the big factory though.

It will increase by a huge amount as soon as they start producing GF cells (minimum of 30% cost reduction) in a reasonable quantity. This probably happens by the end of Q1 2017.

Here is interesting overlay of the shares available to short at Fidelity (at 9:10am, 9:58am, and 10:35am) on the TSLA chart. For the skeptics out there, the drawdown of 800K shares all within 37 min of time is an example of short sellers activities compressed in time, focused on SP manipulation.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck...

But a duck requires water to swim. The shorts are clearly a symptom, not the cause.

Here's an interesting tidbit on the equity compensation portion of the 10-Q since I like to nerd out there - 2 new items on the various NEO option grants became "probable of achievement" for the first time and therefore needed to begin being expensed in Q3:

- production of 100,000 cars in a trailing 12 month period
- 300,000 total car production

I believe "probable" generally means "likely to be achieved in the next 12 months" but it's still interesting nonetheless.

100k should be achieved the end of either Q1 (possible) or Q2 (siam dunk).

 

[Turing]

Do you buy or lease those panels? Buy--"no brainer" in Elon's words. If leased and the lease of the panels was a good deal when they were first installed, would a new lease of new panels or a renewal of 20 yr old panels be a better deal?

Hard to imagine many wanting to put new panels with a new lease on a roof that is at least 20-30 years old as is the case with these stcy customers after 20 years.

 

[Seesaw]

Maybe just the U.S. election. The real price may be steady a flat 200, but some people are moving out of TSLA temporarily on the small chance that evil wins.

I thought HRC would be good for TSLA?? Why would they move out if she wins?

 

[RobStark]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

538 has gone from 85% Clinton wins a few weeks ago to 68.9% today.

I think it will tighten by Monday.

Remember, buy when the herd is panicking. Sell when the herd is greedy.

 

[Green Pete]

Are they even planning on making the trucks electric? I thought they were sticking with ICE and just replacing the driver to cut costs.

Ah, that may be the case.

 

[Green Pete]

Amusing that Über chose the name Otto for the trucking biz. Why not Diesel? Or for that matter, Watt? Even Stirling. Tesla seems to be taken already ...

They bought it with the name.
Uber buys self-driving truck startup Otto; teams with Volvo

Founded by some former google employers with employees Aapl and tsla now.
OTTO (company) - Wikipedia

 

[Jayjs20]

I'm sorry, Jayjs, but who is it you are describing here?
It's sad and one should not laugh, but what about desperation? (Rhethorical)

I didn't mean anyone specific, so I'm not sure where you're going with this.

 

[Green Pete]

I thought HRC would be good for TSLA?? Why would they move out if she wins?

dont get political

 

[zdriver]

There's lots of evidence that Tesla is a better manufacturer than BMW. Hey, my last 4 cars have been BMWs. I loved the performance and feel, but the performance in particular comes at an awful price...especially when the cars go out of warranty. Good luck! They may pump out more cars than Tesla, but it is disingenuous to suggest that there's no "rework" going on with BMW. In fact, their products are much more flawed (beyond the inherent issues with ICEs) than Teslas once the kinks have been worked out on the Tesla factory lines.

I will leave you with this funny and frightening account from a former Bimmer aficionado. Sure it's anecdotal, but trust me, based on my experiences with my e46, e82 and e39 and the experiences of friends who have owned BMWs, this rings utterly true.

http://thegarage.jalopnik.com/bmw-engines-are-gigantic-pieces-of-*sugar*-1784684330

So now I wait patiently for the word that it's time to configure my Tesla Model 3. In the meantime I've jettisoned my last BMW and I'm currently driving an utterly reliable but mind-numbingly boring 16-year old Honda Civic. I may not be able to wait for the Model 3! The siren song of the S is strong and the ties binding me to the mast are fraying!

As a current owner of 5 of em (e46, e39, e85, e83, and most recently an N54 e61. yes, I have problems, I'm aware ), I have to say the biggest issue with "BMWs outside warranty" is the more complicated something is, the more problems it has. Between my wife and I, we're approaching 400k personal miles all combined over the last 8 years, and these were all bought used, between 8-11 years old at time of purchase. All, except the e61, have had nearly flawless "critical" reliability. By "critical", I mean no hesitation to drive cross country at the drop of a hat. What's different about the e61? (08 535xi wagon for everyone else) First gen twin turbo DI engine, which is considerably more complicated than the highly reliable naturally aspirated M54 in the other cars. And not for lack of trying, 2 of the older ones are over 260k miles, the e61 has barely 125k. Oh, and it's not even the first year that engine was out - the previous year was even worse, and based on the most recent recall, they still hadn't figured out how to properly implement fuel pumps for several years after mine. So much for no "rework".

Another likely reason for my apparent "luck" over the years/miles? They're all manuals. Automatic transmissions are amazingly complex, and I'm frankly amazed we don't see more problems with automatic transmissions than we do. BMW tends to push the tech a little harder than others (like Tesla), and as a result, they see more issues.

What's my point? While Tesla is working with bleeding edge tech, their cars from a production standpoint are far less complicated, and I fully expect my Model 3 to substantially outlast any of the bimmers I've had for that reason, even though mine will likely be within the first 50-100k off the line. Further, Tesla learns from production issues and fixes them WAY faster than BMW, which further reinforces that they're a "better" manufacturer than BMW. Definitely wouldn't have stood in line in the pouring rain if I didn't believe that to be true. (especially so, given it'll be my first new car ever)

 

[Value Ev]

BTW, just to provide some context to Tesla price, ER, etc.

Facebook just announced. Numbers below are projected vs. actual.
EPS: 97 cents $1.09
Revenue: 6.92B 7B
Users: 1.75B 1.79

Great results.
edit: Stock is down 0.9% after hours

These are interesting times in the market.

 

[Driver Dave]

Sorry if this has already been posted, but sharing good news more than once can't be that bad.
2017 Motor Trend Awards

Giving an award to an ICE car is like giving an award to a flip phone.