Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Tslynk67]

Where? Cant find it anywhere?

Dah dahhhh!

Edit: doesn't look like an option, but rather standard?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Followup from yesterday:

"Tesla Chairman and CEO Elon Musk joins CNBC from the Baron Conference for an interview at 11 a.m. ET on "Squawk Alley.""

Billionaire Ron Baron: I could make 30-50 times my money on Tesla over next 15 years

 

[aubreymcfato]

Billionaire Ron Baron: I could make 30-50 times my money on Tesla over next 15 years

I especially like this piece:
"The stock was $33 when we started to invest," he said. Tesla closed on Thursday at $187.42 per share. He said his average cost of buying the stock over more than three years is "over $200 now."

I really hope he's saying 30-50x on ~$200

 

[schonelucht]

And profits from sales of S and X seem highly likely to rise in Q4. In fact, another 2-4+% gross margin increase for S/X -- from 25% to 27-29+% on a non-GAAP basis -- is in the cards due to a variety of factors including:
With X production now running smoothly S and X should continue to generate positive GAAP and non-GAAP earnings, as well as serious amounts of cash.

Seems optimistic. The company only guided for a margin improvement of 1-2%. Still, if we take your upper guess of 4% that's an additional $86M in profit. Q3 contained about $150M of positive one time items. For a final profit of $22M. That means to remain profitable Tesla needs to find $50M positive items, likely in ZEV credits. At the same time, while Tesla deliberately kept infrastructure growth in check to make SG&A flat q-o-q, this time they really expanded a lot. We are only halfway through the quarter with already an additional 12 service center locations (last quarter they added 3, total). Tesla has enough cash to fully commit to the growth story again and it does so with gusto. I'd like to remind everyone that in just a few weeks we are within 6 months of Model 3 deliveries!

 

[Ulmo]

I replaced original builder's grade asphalt shingle roofing on my house when it was 27 years old. The roof was not leaking.

Most of the roofing damage due to age happens on south slope because of exposure to heating cycles.
Since PV panels are installed on the south facing slope, the assumption that at 20-years mark roof will be leaking IMO is not realistic, especially because contemporary roofing materials have significant quality improvements. I really do not believe in proposition of replacing functional roof with functional solar panels, when an owner can just renew his sgreement with Tesla/Solar City, and likely on better terms.

I think that will often be true. But, here in a beach town that used to see fog half the time, the roof that has the most moss growing on it is the North facing slope, and needs the most repair sooner. The South facing slope is going to get some cheap panels with low longevity, and will probably be taken off and put back someplace else (granny unit, another roof, patio, carport, walkway, sold to someone else, new home, pole mount, patio -- whatever), when it comes time to repair the roof. By then, it will be ready for Tesla Roof, and that is my intent, if it is my decision at that moment.

Seems optimistic. The company only guided for a margin improvement of 1-2%. Still, if we take your upper guess of 4% that's an additional $86M in profit. Q3 contained about $150M of positive one time items. For a final profit of $22M. That means to remain profitable Tesla needs to find $50M positive items, likely in ZEV credits. At the same time, while Tesla deliberately kept infrastructure growth in check to make SG&A flat q-o-q, this time they really expanded a lot. We are only halfway through the quarter with already an additional 12 service center locations (last quarter they added 3, total). Tesla has enough cash to fully commit to the growth story again and it does so with gusto. I'd like to remind everyone that in just a few weeks we are within 6 months of Model 3 deliveries!

I hope. MyTesla says "Late 2017", and I reserved in-store morning of March 31.

 

[EinSV]

All regulatory credits should be reported in Other Income which would end the distortions and variability of GM under the current regime. But given the current regime, what sense does it make to exclude ZEV credits from non-GAAP calculations but include GHG/CAFE credits (the apparent $30 million "mouse nut'' last quarter)? Excluding all credits last quarter, Auto GM would be ($631.6-$169.7) /$2148.7-$169.7) =23.3%

It may be that they exclude ZEV credits from non-GAAP reporting because they are so volatile. It is certainly a direct benefit of the automotive business and is real cash in the door. In any event, the point of my original post was that the underlying S/X business should become more profitable in Q4 versus Q3. Debating whether Tesla uses the optimal way of reporting non-GAAP gross margin is a separate issue.

I'm going out of the country for two weeks but will revert about GAAP GM when I get back (I think believing stock based compensation has no cost is fatuous)

Thank you -- I would be interested to see your Q4 GAAP GM analysis. Despite your criticisms of how Tesla calculates non-GAAP gross margin, I would encourage you to also take a stab at predicting GM using Tesla's non-GAAP GM metric but that's your prerogative obviously.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I especially like this piece:
"The stock was $33 when we started to invest," he said. Tesla closed on Thursday at $187.42 per share. He said his average cost of buying the stock over more than three years is "over $200 now."

I really hope he's saying 30-50x on ~$200

That is exactly what he means........

 

[vgrinshpun]

I especially like this piece:
"The stock was $33 when we started to invest," he said. Tesla closed on Thursday at $187.42 per share. He said his average cost of buying the stock over more than three years is "over $200 now."

I really hope he's saying 30-50x on ~$200

He does - in the video.

 

[EinSV]

Seems optimistic. The company only guided for a margin improvement of 1-2%. Still, if we take your upper guess of 4% that's an additional $86M in profit. Q3 contained about $150M of positive one time items. For a final profit of $22M. That means to remain profitable Tesla needs to find $50M positive items, likely in ZEV credits. At the same time, while Tesla deliberately kept infrastructure growth in check to make SG&A flat q-o-q, this time they really expanded a lot. We are only halfway through the quarter with already an additional 12 service center locations (last quarter they added 3, total). Tesla has enough cash to fully commit to the growth story again and it does so with gusto. I'd like to remind everyone that in just a few weeks we are within 6 months of Model 3 deliveries!

I recognize that this is above GM guidance, but I believe guidance is likely to turn out to be conservative for the reasons in my post above.

I focused on GM for S/X because I think it is very important that the core S/X business is likely to become even more profitable. I don't see much discussion of the factors I laid out in my post above but lots of discussion of inventory and discounting, just like we had last quarter. Last quarter, I believe ignoring positive changes in the underlying business to focus on inventory and discounting, which affected a relatively small percentage of vehicles, led most people to be overly pessimistic about margins and significantly underestimate them.

I agree that getting to overall GAAP positive earnings will not be easy without ZEV credits. It is possible for Tesla to get there a number of ways, including with help from TE growing and contributing margin with the GF coming online, although I believe TE margins are likely to be modest in Q4 as they will just be starting the production ramp.

Incidentally, I thought the thread you started last quarter on Q3 earnings was very helpful, we may want to do something similar this quarter and move this discussion over there ....

 

[myusername]

either a large drop today or a break out of the downtrend... i don't see a reason for a break out of the downtrend.

 

[myusername]

That is exactly what he means........

those making $1T predictions like Ron, Elon and yourself might as well be betting on which 5 year old in the US is going to be the president in the year 2060.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

either a large drop today or a break out of the downtrend... i don't see a reason for a drop out of the downtrend.

Shocking commentary by a true visionary.

 

[AlMc]

I especially like this piece:
"The stock was $33 when we started to invest," he said. Tesla closed on Thursday at $187.42 per share. He said his average cost of buying the stock over more than three years is "over $200 now."

I really hope he's saying 30-50x on ~$200

I would be OK with 30-50x on $33. I am not greedy

 

[myusername]

Shocking commentary by a true visionary.

you ever open up a chart?... why don't you take the 15 year vision goggles off for a second and look at what the stock and company is actually doing?

 

[ggies07]

In 20 years: if most houses include solar and batteries, then neighbourhoodd could do local load sharing. They neighbours on holiday might be selling power to the neighbours hosting guests and needing more power. Neighbourhoods might power share with other neighbourhoods. What role does the power company have? I am not sure how it all fits together.

Sounds like a nice little VPP.

If you look through JB's presentations he sketches an outline of a virtual utility with a bank of homes with powerwalls controlled by central tesla software that is able to discharge the powerwalls to the local grid as needed. Add in solarcity and they also then have generation along with storage.

Fits the Tesla vision perfectly

And if people have been keeping up with the utility side of the energy equation, this has been talked about for at least 2 years from Tesla/solarcity.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

you ever open up a chart?... why don't you take the 15 year vision goggles off for a second and look at what the stock and company is actually doing?

I am certain that I was as much, if not more, of a negative troll than you a year ago. I too know how to upset bulls. I'm a better troll than you, no doubt. Nevertheless, I have an excellent grasp on technicals and could have sold long ago but since I am lazy and not concerned with the long term prospects of Tesla I have not sold. My track record is stellar and that is the only thing that concerns me..statistically speaking. So please try harder. I followed you again for a good laugh. You seem like a decent fellow.

 

[Navin]

ISS recommends $TSLA and $SCTY shareholders approve merger.

 

[Green Pete]

I especially like this piece:
"The stock was $33 when we started to invest," he said. Tesla closed on Thursday at $187.42 per share. He said his average cost of buying the stock over more than three years is "over $200 now."

I really hope he's saying 30-50x on ~$200

He has to be, if his average buying price is over 200 and he's saying 30 x the low price of 19 it would barely triple his investment.

He's also on record believing that the company is worth 1 trillion, which would require a 30x+ increase in value from here

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

The reason for all the hate is that there are so many involved in industries that Tesla could make obsolete. My job is a good example. I simply choose to hedge myself as Tesla will most likely be victorious.

 

[Green Pete]

Why is solar city up over 5% premarket?

This is a serious question. Don't get me wrong I think it's hugely undervalued as a company but did I miss some news?