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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I do not think that your origin should affect this. If you cannot find them, try going here, you will need to contact Innisfree.

Instructions for Voting on Tesla's Acquisition of SolarCity

Called the number Elon recommended and they told me to call TD bank who I trade with.

On the phone with TD right now.....they looked into matters and told me only Solar City is involved in the vote...LOL. I set them straight and remain on hold.

EDIT: They said they received nothing from Tesla telling them to send this to shareholders. The young lady will check with the "back office" and give me a call next week. Always hated banks!
 
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No, not when you're starting with $460 million in cash flow. This cash flow was a result of a net influx of $481 million from Tesla's suppliers/customers.

To assume no change in AP/AR, you need to start with the ($21) million figure from my post. Like this:

($21) million + $250 million in capex - $1.04 billion = ($811) million

So, $811 million, not $330 million, needs to be spent of Tesla's cash reserves for $1.04 billion in capex.

I don't believe AP is relevant to the calculation but to simplify things we can assume Q4 is exactly the same as Q3 except no ZEV credits. This results in $460M cash flow from operations. So $1.04B in CapEx would result in $580M cash reduction or $2.5B cash on hand ($3.1B - $600M), which I believe is similar to what you have in your earlier post. Still not too bad.

I would expect an increase in cash flow due to increased margins, increased S/X sales, a small but positive contribution from TE, a small amount of ZEV credits, balanced by increased OpEx.

But to avoid losing the forest for the trees the larger point I was trying to make is that significant cash flows from S and X could provide an important source of capital for the Model 3 ramp over the next four quarters. Almost $2B if they just match last quarters performance (excluding ZEV credits).
 
IMO, the acceleration of tesla cars has always been a gimmick to bring in revenue prior to model 3 launch. High acceleration doesn't really make sense in the grand musk plan of sustainable energy. It wastes a lot of energy to accelerate at unreasonable speeds. And i can't see any circumstance where a self driving vehicle (the general direction tesla is heading with all cars) to actually be of any benefit. Considering the recent release of the 2170 batteries wouldn't an increased energy capacity be a far more likely Easter egg? "Hey, actually we snuck in 2170 batteries in the P100D model S and the range of your model S is 600 miles on a full charge now." For racing enthusiasts this would mean you could race more often per charge. Am I the only one on this train of thought?
It's all about bragging right, an important reason for many people to buy very high end cars. Also good for the press and salesmen. Ludicrous acceleration does not mean much to you and me in daily use, but It sells cars.
Elon said "uncorks the full performance" of the P100D so I really doubt hes referring to the 2170 cells, although that could come next year.
 
As a Canadian, should I have my voting information yet? I have not received anything in the mail and there is nothing on my pathetic trading platform.
I got my proxy card for the SCTY side of the equation in the mail about a week and a half ago with a print copy of the prospectus (S-4).

I had already voted my shares by calling my broker and getting my ID number to use on proxyvote.com
 
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Two medium to long term issues.

The completion of the AP drive from California to NYC might trigger a small bump in the SP. It's probably possible to find out that its in progress after it starts. Might be worth the effort.

The demand for the M3 is going to be much higher than the market, and most investors believe. When they announced it one reason that they were somewhat surprised by the response is that they deliberately hid some of the features so that they would not Osborne MS-MX sales.

That's obviously the reason that they waited until they put the AP 2 hardware in the MS-MX to announce the M3 would also have it. Range/pack size and the prices for larger packs were also clearly mentioned in that context.

A couple of other things that will probably be on that list are a HUD and lower pricing for full autonomy.

Add to that the fact that most people would not even consider placing a deposit for a car that isn't currently in production yet. I recommended to five or six friends, most of whom I'm sure will want one when they see and drive one who didn't do it. I believe that the 500k reservations are clearly the tip of the iceberg of M3 demand. We all know that the SP is currently much less than it would be if the market believed that Tesla could produce 500k cars by 2018, or even 2019.

But I think that most of us are underestimating the impact of the off-the-hook demand that will occur once the car starts to ship.
 
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IMO, the acceleration of tesla cars has always been a gimmick to bring in revenue prior to model 3 launch. High acceleration doesn't really make sense in the grand musk plan of sustainable energy. It wastes a lot of energy to accelerate at unreasonable speeds. And i can't see any circumstance where a self driving vehicle (the general direction tesla is heading with all cars) to actually be of any benefit.
Really? how about it shows that EVs are more fun to drive than an ICE....which helps the adoption of sustainable transportation. Also, an example of needing the acceleration is merging onto a highway where the ramp is a short length.....we have a ton of these in the DFW metroplex.
 
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Add to that the fact that most people would not even consider placing a deposit for a car that isn't currently in production yet. I recommended to five or six friends, most of whom I'm sure will want one when they see and drive one who didn't do it. I believe that the 500k reservations are clearly the tip of the iceberg of M3 demand. We all know that the SP is currently much less than it would be if the market believed that Tesla could produce 500k cars by 2018, or even 2019. But I think that most of us are underestimating the impact of the off-the-hook demand that will occur once the car starts to ship.

You are not alone in this experience. My best friend and I have been talking about owning Model 3's since about 2012. I put my deposit down on 3/31, he didn't. He still doesn't have one. I expect he won't own one until 2019 at the earliest now.
 
IMO, the acceleration of tesla cars has always been a gimmick to bring in revenue prior to model 3 launch.....Considering the recent release of the 2170 batteries wouldn't an increased energy capacity be a far more likely Easter egg?... Am I the only one on this train of thought?

Definitely seems like a faster 0-60 time. Elon responded to Brooks from Drag Times to have the feature released early for him, in time for his Sunday drag race.

Elon Musk on Twitter

P100D is only 0.3s away from matching the 918 Spyder 0-60 time, this will be interesting!
 
Hey guys I'm a newbie here. Simple question: assuming TSLA buys SCTY, is there a benefit to buying SCTY stock now vs TSLA stock?

Welcome. That has been discussed at great length. For every share of SCTY you have you will receive 0.11 shares of TSLA. At closing price on Friday there was still a *gap* (arbitrage) if you multiple out the SP of SCTY and TSLA with the 1/.11 ratio.
 
@CALGARYARSENAL I'm from Italy, so probably our situation is similar.

I contacted my bank few weeks ago, and asked how I could vote. They didn't know anything, but after few days they wrote back and sent me a document that I had to fill in and sign. I had to scan it and send it back. If your bank does not live in XIX century as Italian ones they maybe will allow a digital signature ;-)
 
Maybe it's not the right thread (please tell me if so):
I was wondering if there is the possibility of having a whole car roof made
of "solar glass".
Few years ago MIT developed a completely transparent solar cell,
and Musk just yesterday talked about a solar roof for cars, reiterating also
the research that Tesla is doing on glass (likely, solar roofs (which we've seen) and HUD (which we've not)).
Am I crazy or there is a way this is in the realm of possibilities?
 
Hard to say. The arbitrage gap is almost closed already. Plus, although it is more likely the gap eventually close up to TSLA, it is not impossible to close down to scty (may be what has been happening for the past weeks even)
Because the gap still exists (although now down to about 3%), you're still better off buying SCTY than TSLA, even if TSLA goes down rather than SCTY going up. Always assuming that the merger happens, of course. I guess that slight risk accounts for the price gap.
 
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